【摘要】：電力是最重要的二次能源，是經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的動(dòng)力，保持電力的穩(wěn)定供應(yīng)與合理需求不論是對(duì)一個(gè)國(guó)家還是對(duì)地方政府均是十分重要。改革開(kāi)放以來(lái)浙江工業(yè)產(chǎn)值占GDP比重平均值為43.96%，工業(yè)耗電量占全社會(huì)耗電量比重為75%以上，一直以來(lái)是耗電大省，2011年全省電力消費(fèi)量為3116.91億千瓦時(shí)。近年來(lái)多次發(fā)生大范圍電荒，全省的經(jīng)濟(jì)生產(chǎn)與人民生活均受到嚴(yán)重的影響，除去電力體制上的不完善和電源建設(shè)滯后等問(wèn)題，浙江省自身的用電效率不高、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)不合理是其主要原因。本文研究的問(wèn)題就是浙江省的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)演變與電力消費(fèi)變動(dòng)之間的關(guān)系，通過(guò)灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析、電力強(qiáng)度的因素分解分析、工業(yè)行業(yè)內(nèi)部用電分析等方法來(lái)研究如何協(xié)調(diào)浙江省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與電力消費(fèi)兩者之間的關(guān)系。 先測(cè)算出1995-2011年浙江工業(yè)化綜合指數(shù)，對(duì)照相應(yīng)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，得出1995-1996處于工業(yè)化初期，2000-2006處于工業(yè)化中期，，2007-2011處于工業(yè)化后期。然后用圖表表示出不同階段下，浙江經(jīng)濟(jì)總量與電力消費(fèi)總量之間的關(guān)系，分析不同階段浙江省總的用電特點(diǎn)與不同階段分產(chǎn)業(yè)電力消耗情況。緊接著著重研究浙江工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)與工業(yè)用電量之間的關(guān)系，對(duì)1987-2011年兩變量的時(shí)間序列運(yùn)用了格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)，結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)促進(jìn)了全社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)總量的增長(zhǎng)，帶來(lái)電力的大量消費(fèi)，然而電力消費(fèi)卻不能導(dǎo)致工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)。最后對(duì)浙江省工業(yè)企業(yè)分行業(yè)用電量與用電效率進(jìn)行測(cè)算排名，選取2011年產(chǎn)值為1000億以上的18個(gè)行業(yè)進(jìn)行研究，其產(chǎn)值占全省工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值比重為87%，得出其中產(chǎn)值低、電耗高且用電效率低的行業(yè)如：造紙業(yè)和非金屬礦物制造業(yè)等，應(yīng)該逐步淘汰。其中，對(duì)高耗能行業(yè)進(jìn)行差別電價(jià)政策效果明顯，需要加強(qiáng)監(jiān)督和實(shí)施力度。 分總量和效率兩大方面研究產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和電力消費(fèi)關(guān)系，對(duì)浙江省終端用電量與全社會(huì)用電總量進(jìn)行灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度分析，經(jīng)過(guò)計(jì)算得到關(guān)聯(lián)度大小依次排序?yàn)楣I(yè)，建筑業(yè)，交通運(yùn)輸、倉(cāng)儲(chǔ)郵政業(yè)，居民生活消費(fèi)，其他消費(fèi)終端，批發(fā)零售業(yè)和住宿餐飲業(yè)和農(nóng)林牧漁水利業(yè)，關(guān)聯(lián)度大表明在1995-2011年間變動(dòng)態(tài)勢(shì)與總的電力消費(fèi)量變動(dòng)態(tài)勢(shì)比較接近，為相應(yīng)行業(yè)節(jié)電和結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整提供理論依據(jù)。另一個(gè)重要變量是用電效率，這里用電力消費(fèi)強(qiáng)度進(jìn)行分析，首先測(cè)算出1995-2011年間的強(qiáng)度和相鄰兩年強(qiáng)度變化，然后運(yùn)用指數(shù)對(duì)數(shù)平均法對(duì)其變化的部分進(jìn)行因素分解，分解因素分為結(jié)構(gòu)變量和產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)部用電效率變量。最終發(fā)現(xiàn)決定強(qiáng)度上升或下降的主要因素是產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)部用電效率，所以得出結(jié)論要想降低浙江省電力消費(fèi)強(qiáng)度從而提高用電效率來(lái)節(jié)電的話(huà)，必須降低三次產(chǎn)業(yè)的電力消費(fèi)強(qiáng)度，提高各產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)部的高科技含量，提高電力的使用效率。 文章的最后對(duì)浙江的用電總量進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)，選取影響浙江用電量的包括經(jīng)濟(jì)總量、電價(jià)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)、用電效率和人口變動(dòng)等五個(gè)因素，建立浙江省的用電需求模型對(duì)“十二五”和“十三五”期間的用電量進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)，其中主要采用協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)理論和短期誤差修正模型。最后發(fā)現(xiàn)用電量的增長(zhǎng)率逐年降低，并且低于經(jīng)濟(jì)總量的增長(zhǎng)率，主要原因可以通過(guò)用電效率上升、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整和電價(jià)上漲來(lái)解釋。 通過(guò)全文的實(shí)證和理論探究，可以得出結(jié)論要解決目前浙江省用電緊張問(wèn)題必須加快浙江省的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整，淘汰那些耗電高產(chǎn)值低的工業(yè)行業(yè)，在保證經(jīng)濟(jì)合理增長(zhǎng)的前提下發(fā)展科技含量高的新興產(chǎn)業(yè)，使得全省的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與電力消費(fèi)保持一個(gè)相對(duì)穩(wěn)定的關(guān)系。預(yù)測(cè)模型結(jié)果說(shuō)明隨著用電效率提高和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的放緩，以及產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的逐漸合理，用電量的增長(zhǎng)率是逐漸降低的，相關(guān)的預(yù)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)省電力管理部門(mén)在今后若干年份處理電力供需矛盾時(shí)，提供一定的實(shí)用價(jià)值。
[Abstract]:Electricity is the most important secondary energy, it is the power of economic development, and the stable supply and reasonable demand of maintaining power are important to a country or to the local government. Since the reform and opening-up, the industrial output value of Zhejiang accounts for 43. 96% of the total GDP, and the industrial power consumption accounts for more than 75% of the total social power consumption, and has always been the power-consuming province. In 2011, the consumption of electricity in the whole province was 3116. 91 billion kilowatt-hours. In recent years, the economic production and the people's life of the whole province have been seriously affected, and the problems such as the imperfect power system and the lag of power construction are removed, and the power utilization efficiency of the province is not high, and the irrational industrial structure is the main reason. The problem of this paper is the relationship between the evolution of the industrial structure and the change of power consumption in Zhejiang province, and the analysis of the factors of the power intensity through the grey correlation analysis. The paper studies how to coordinate the relationship between the industrial structure of Zhejiang and the consumption of electricity. First, the comprehensive index of Zhejiang industrialization in 1995-2011 and the corresponding standard are calculated, and it is concluded that in the early period of industrialization in 1995-1996, the period 2000-2006 was in the middle of industrialization, and after the industrialization of 2007-2011, The relationship between the total amount of Zhejiang's economy and the total amount of electricity consumption in different stages is then represented by the chart, and the total power consumption of Zhejiang province and the power consumption of different phases are analyzed in different stages. According to the relationship between the industrial economy and the industrial electricity consumption of Zhejiang, the Granger causality test was applied to the time series of the two variables in 1987 to 2011, and the result found that the growth of the industrial economy promoted the growth of the total social economy, and brought about a large amount of power. However, the consumption of electricity can not lead to the increase of the industrial economy In the end, the electricity consumption and power utilization efficiency of the industrial enterprises in Zhejiang are ranked, and 18 industries with output value of more than 10 billion yuan in 2011 are selected to study, and the output value of the industry accounts for 87% of the total industrial output value of the whole province, and the industries in which the output value is low, the power consumption is high, and the power consumption efficiency is low is obtained. such as the paper industry and the non-metallic mineral manufacturing industry, etc., should be gradually At the same time, the effect of the differential electricity price policy on the high-energy consumption industry is obvious, and it is necessary to strengthen the supervision and implementation force. The relationship between the industrial structure and the power consumption is studied in terms of the total quantity and the efficiency, and the grey correlation degree analysis is carried out on the electricity consumption of the terminal of the Zhejiang Province and the total electricity consumption of the whole society, and the correlation degree is sequentially sorted into the industry, the construction industry, the transportation and the storage by the calculation. Postal industry, residents' living consumption, other consumer terminals, wholesale and retail and accommodation catering and farming and fishery water conservancy, the degree of association shows that the change trend in 1995-2011 is close to that of the total power consumption, and provides a basis for the electricity-saving and structural adjustment of the corresponding industries. On the basis of the theory, another important variable is the efficiency of electric power. The power consumption intensity is analyzed. First, the intensity and the adjacent two-year strength change between 1995 and 2011 are calculated, and then the part of the change is made by the exponential logarithmic average method. The decomposition of the elements and the decomposition factors are divided into the structural variables and the internal power consumption of the industry As a result, it is concluded that the main factors that determine the rise or fall of electric power in Zhejiang are the internal power utilization efficiency of the industry, so it is concluded that the electric power consumption of the third industry must be reduced if the power consumption intensity of the province is reduced so as to improve the power utilization efficiency. The cost is increased, the high-tech content in each industry is improved, and the electric power is improved. The paper forecasts the total amount of electricity used in Zhejiang, and selects the amount of electricity used in Zhejiang, including the economic total, the price of electricity, the change of the industrial structure, the efficiency of electricity and the change of the population. Based on five factors, the electricity consumption demand model of Zhejiang province is established to forecast the electricity consumption during the 鈥

本文編號(hào)：2377823