【摘要】：一國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)主要取決于投資需求、消費(fèi)需求和出口需求三駕馬車(chē),在其他條件不變時(shí),通過(guò)增加出口，可以以乘數(shù)效應(yīng)增加總需求，進(jìn)而推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，所以我國(guó)把出口導(dǎo)向政策作為經(jīng)濟(jì)戰(zhàn)略之一,出口貿(mào)易對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展起到了重要的推動(dòng)作用。河北省也一直重視出口貿(mào)易的發(fā)展，但目前河北省出口貿(mào)易存在貿(mào)易總量偏小出口結(jié)構(gòu)不合理市場(chǎng)過(guò)于集中等問(wèn)題，導(dǎo)致出口貿(mào)易對(duì)河北省經(jīng)濟(jì)的拉動(dòng)度不夠。因此，研究河北省出口貿(mào)易的現(xiàn)狀、存在的問(wèn)題以及河北省的出口貿(mào)易與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系，并在此基礎(chǔ)上提出相應(yīng)的對(duì)策具有非常重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文首先從出口貿(mào)易規(guī)模、出口貿(mào)易方式、結(jié)構(gòu)等方面對(duì)河北省的出口貿(mào)易現(xiàn)狀及存在的問(wèn)題進(jìn)行了深入分析，，總體來(lái)看河北省出口貿(mào)易增長(zhǎng)率呈上漲趨勢(shì)、加工貿(mào)易總額不斷上升、機(jī)電及高新技術(shù)產(chǎn)品出口成為主力、新興市場(chǎng)出口總額不斷上升、民營(yíng)企業(yè)出口發(fā)展迅速等。同時(shí)，河北省出口貿(mào)易也存在諸多問(wèn)題，表現(xiàn)為出口貿(mào)易量偏小、出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)有待優(yōu)化、加工貿(mào)易占比過(guò)低、出口市場(chǎng)多元化程度低以及出口主體結(jié)構(gòu)不合理等。在上述研究基礎(chǔ)上，本文利用協(xié)整分析、誤差修正模型以及格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)等方法對(duì)河北省出口貿(mào)易對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的影響進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析，實(shí)證結(jié)果表明，無(wú)論長(zhǎng)期還是短期，河北省出口貿(mào)易與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展之間均存在穩(wěn)定的均衡關(guān)系，但是相關(guān)性比較弱；河北省出口貿(mào)易與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間存在雙向因果關(guān)系。最后，本文針對(duì)河北省出口貿(mào)易存在的問(wèn)題提出了積極發(fā)展加工貿(mào)易、優(yōu)化河北省出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)、繼續(xù)推進(jìn)“市場(chǎng)多元化”戰(zhàn)略、深化外貿(mào)經(jīng)營(yíng)主體改革、實(shí)施品牌戰(zhàn)略、大力培育優(yōu)秀的對(duì)外貿(mào)易人才隊(duì)伍等對(duì)策建議。
[Abstract]:The economic growth of a country mainly depends on the investment demand, consumer demand and export demand troika. When other conditions are unchanged, by increasing exports, the total demand can be increased by a multiplier effect, and then the economic growth can be promoted. Therefore, our country regards the export-oriented policy as one of the economic strategies, and export trade plays an important role in promoting the economic development of our country. Hebei Province has always attached importance to the development of export trade, but at present, there are some problems in Hebei's export trade, such as the unreasonable structure of total volume of trade is too small, the structure of export is too concentrated, and so on, which leads to the insufficient pulling degree of export trade to the economy of Hebei Province. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the present situation, existing problems and the relationship between export trade and economic growth of Hebei Province, and put forward corresponding countermeasures on this basis. This paper first analyzes the current situation and existing problems of Hebei's export trade from the aspects of scale, mode and structure of export trade. The overall growth rate of Hebei's export trade shows an upward trend. The total amount of processing trade has been rising, the export of machinery and new technology products has become the main force, the total export volume of emerging markets has been rising, and the export of private enterprises is developing rapidly. At the same time, there are many problems in Hebei's export trade, such as small volume of export trade, the structure of export commodities to be optimized, the low proportion of processing trade, the low degree of diversification of export market and the unreasonable structure of export main body, etc. On the basis of the above research, this paper uses cointegration analysis, error correction model and Granger causality test to analyze the impact of Hebei's export trade on economic development. The empirical results show that, in the long run or in the short term, There is a stable equilibrium relationship between export trade and economic development in Hebei Province, but the correlation is relatively weak. There is a two-way causality between Hebei export trade and economic growth. Finally, in view of the existing problems of Hebei export trade, this paper puts forward to actively develop processing trade, optimize the structure of Hebei export commodities, continue to push forward the strategy of "market diversification", deepen the reform of the main body of foreign trade, and implement the brand strategy. We should make great efforts to cultivate excellent foreign trade talents and so on.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F752.8;F127

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