【摘要】：我國城鎮(zhèn)化的進(jìn)程加快,城鎮(zhèn)化越來越高,城鎮(zhèn)居民的可支配收入水平隨著時(shí)間推移明顯提高,相應(yīng)的城鎮(zhèn)居民的消費(fèi)水平也逐年增加。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,城鎮(zhèn)居民的儲(chǔ)蓄逐漸增加,對(duì)我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展有相當(dāng)大的促進(jìn)作用。如何加快城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程,提高城鎮(zhèn)居民的可支配收入水平,縮小地區(qū)之間的差距,成為我們未來要解決的關(guān)鍵問題。本文首先對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)居民廣義儲(chǔ)蓄情況進(jìn)行描述,然后從城鎮(zhèn)居民儲(chǔ)蓄的現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行分析,通過從全國和東部、中部、西部的對(duì)比,總結(jié)我國城鎮(zhèn)居民儲(chǔ)蓄的現(xiàn)狀,然后對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)居民儲(chǔ)蓄對(duì)我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。本文實(shí)證分析分為兩大部分:第一部分,以2003-2015年我國城鎮(zhèn)居民儲(chǔ)蓄的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),通過研究城鎮(zhèn)居民儲(chǔ)蓄與我國GDP的動(dòng)態(tài)變化,得出我國經(jīng)濟(jì)變化與城鎮(zhèn)居民儲(chǔ)蓄有相關(guān)關(guān)系。本文通過對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)居民儲(chǔ)蓄與GDP的協(xié)整分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)GDP與城鎮(zhèn)居民儲(chǔ)蓄處于長期均衡的狀態(tài),通過研究發(fā)現(xiàn),GDP的增長會(huì)促使城鎮(zhèn)居民儲(chǔ)蓄的增大,也就是說,我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長能促進(jìn)城鎮(zhèn)居民儲(chǔ)蓄的增大;另外,GDP的變化會(huì)很快反映到城鎮(zhèn)居民儲(chǔ)蓄的變化,說明它的滯后期短。這部分由于只涉及到時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù),分析的結(jié)果可能忽略了一些因素而造成誤差較大,因此,第二部分采用了面板數(shù)據(jù)建模來確定二者之間的關(guān)系。第二部分,以2003-2015年我國31個(gè)地區(qū)的面板數(shù)據(jù)建立面板模型,研究城鎮(zhèn)居民儲(chǔ)蓄的變化對(duì)我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響。首先,通過檢驗(yàn)判斷確定面板模型的形式,通過建立面板模型,分析城鎮(zhèn)居民儲(chǔ)蓄與GDP的相關(guān)關(guān)系;其次,將全國劃分為3個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)帶地區(qū),分別對(duì)東部、中部和西部3個(gè)地區(qū)建立面板模型,通過對(duì)比分析,分別得出3個(gè)地區(qū)城鎮(zhèn)居民儲(chǔ)蓄與GDP的關(guān)系;最后,通過對(duì)比分析的結(jié)果,我們得到一些結(jié)論。根據(jù)研究的結(jié)論,提出以下促進(jìn)城鎮(zhèn)居民儲(chǔ)蓄合理增加的建議:1.減小地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)差距,保持合理穩(wěn)定發(fā)展;2.提高城鎮(zhèn)居民收入;3.穩(wěn)定市場經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng),增強(qiáng)居民投資信心;4.科學(xué)進(jìn)行城鎮(zhèn)化建設(shè)。
[Abstract]:The process of urbanization in China is speeding up, and urbanization is becoming higher and higher. The level of disposable income of urban residents increases obviously with the passage of time, and the consumption level of corresponding urban residents increases year by year. With the development of economy, the saving of urban residents increases gradually, which can promote the economic development of our country. How to speed up the process of urbanization, improve the level of disposable income of urban residents, narrow the gap between regions, become the key problem to be solved in the future. This paper first describes the general saving situation of urban residents, then analyzes the present situation of urban residents' savings, and sums up the present situation of urban residents' savings in China through the comparison between the whole country and the east, the middle and the west. Then the impact of urban residents' savings on China's economy is analyzed empirically. The empirical analysis of this paper is divided into two parts: the first part, based on the data of urban residents' savings from 2003 to 2015, this paper studies the dynamic changes of urban residents' savings and China's GDP. It is concluded that there is a correlation between the economic changes and the savings of urban residents. Through the cointegration analysis of urban residents' savings and GDP, this paper finds that GDP and urban residents' savings are in a long-term equilibrium state. Through the research, it is found that the increase of GDP will promote the increase of urban residents' savings, that is, China's economic growth can promote the increase of urban residents' savings; In addition, the change of GDP will quickly reflect the change of urban residents' savings, indicating that its lag is short. Since only time series data are involved in this part, the results of the analysis may ignore some factors and cause large errors. Therefore, the second part uses panel data modeling to determine the relationship between them. In the second part, the panel model is established based on the panel data of 31 regions in China from 2003 to 2015 to study the impact of the change of urban residents' savings on our economy. Firstly, the form of panel model is determined by checking and judging, and the correlation between urban residents' savings and GDP is analyzed by establishing panel model. Secondly, the whole country is divided into three economic zones. The panel model is established for the eastern, central and western regions, and the relationship between the savings of urban residents and GDP in the three regions is obtained by comparison and analysis. Finally, through the comparative analysis, we get some conclusions. According to the conclusion of the study, the following suggestions are put forward to promote the rational increase of urban residents' savings: 1. Reduce regional economic gap and maintain rational and stable development; 2. Raise the income of urban residents; 3. To stabilize market economic activities and enhance residents' confidence in investment; 4. Scientific urbanization will be carried out.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F124;F126.1

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