【摘要】：消費(fèi)、投資和凈出口被認(rèn)為是拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的三駕馬車。然而隨著2008年金融危機(jī)的逐步蔓延,我國出口遭到了嚴(yán)重的打擊,凈出口對GDP的貢獻(xiàn)率出現(xiàn)了負(fù)值。同時(shí),我國過度依賴投資的現(xiàn)狀一直沒有得到改變。河南省也存在同樣的問題,根據(jù)河南省統(tǒng)計(jì)局的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),2012年凈出口對河南省GDP的貢獻(xiàn)率為-66.73%,而投資對GDP的貢獻(xiàn)率為108.44%,遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于消費(fèi)的58.29%,這反映出河南省出口受阻、過度倚重投資與內(nèi)需疲軟的現(xiàn)狀。因此,在出口環(huán)境無法改善、投資邊際貢獻(xiàn)越來越小的情況下,刺激內(nèi)需、擴(kuò)大消費(fèi)便成為推動(dòng)河南省經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的主要力量。由于居民消費(fèi)在最終消費(fèi)中的比例非常大,那么刺激居民消費(fèi)將成為重中之重。根據(jù)傳統(tǒng)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)相關(guān)理論,收入是影響消費(fèi)的重要因素,消費(fèi)隨著收入的增加而增加,隨著收入差距的擴(kuò)大而減少。因此,正確認(rèn)識河南省居民收入、收入差距與消費(fèi)的關(guān)系將有助于對癥下藥,促進(jìn)河南省經(jīng)濟(jì)的良好發(fā)展。 本文以河南省居民收入、收入差距與消費(fèi)為研究對象,基于絕對收入模型與相對收入模型,利用河南省1978-2012年的相關(guān)時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)與2002-2012年的相關(guān)面板數(shù)據(jù),首先分析了河南省居民收入與消費(fèi)的關(guān)系,并且進(jìn)一步研究了不同來源收入的邊際消費(fèi)傾向。其次,本文通過分析不同收入階層居民的邊際消費(fèi)傾向從側(cè)面研究了收入差距對消費(fèi)的影響,同時(shí)利用基尼系數(shù)、城鄉(xiāng)居民收入比與平均消費(fèi)傾向的關(guān)系從正面探究了收入差距對居民消費(fèi)的具體影響。 通過研究,本文發(fā)現(xiàn)：第一,河南省居民收入與消費(fèi)存在長期均衡的協(xié)整關(guān)系,收入是消費(fèi)的格蘭杰原因。第二,不同來源收入的邊際消費(fèi)傾向不同,其中財(cái)產(chǎn)性收入與轉(zhuǎn)移性收入的邊際消費(fèi)傾向最高,說明提高這兩項(xiàng)收入更有助于增加消費(fèi)。第三,不同階層居民收入水平與邊際消費(fèi)傾向呈現(xiàn)負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系,因此提高低收入階層居民收入有助于刺激消費(fèi)。第四,收入差距的擴(kuò)大將會(huì)導(dǎo)致居民消費(fèi)支出的下降。據(jù)此,本文提出了提高居民收入水平、完善收入分配制度、發(fā)揮財(cái)政與稅收對收入分配的調(diào)節(jié)作用與完善社會(huì)保障制度等政策建議。
[Abstract]:Consumption, investment and net exports are considered the troika that drives economic growth. However, with the gradual spread of the financial crisis in 2008, China's exports suffered a serious blow, and the contribution rate of net exports to GDP was negative. At the same time, China's over-reliance on investment has not been changed. The same problem exists in Henan Province. According to the relevant data from the Henan Bureau of Statistics, the contribution rate of net exports to Henan's GDP in 2012 was -66.73, while the contribution rate of investment to GDP was 108.44, much higher than the 58.29 percent of consumption. This reflects the current situation of Henan Province's exports being blocked, over-reliant on investment and weak domestic demand. Therefore, when the export environment can not be improved and the marginal contribution of investment is getting smaller and smaller, stimulating domestic demand and expanding consumption will become the main force to promote the economic development of Henan Province. As the proportion of resident consumption in the final consumption is very large, stimulating resident consumption will become the top priority. According to the related theories of traditional economics, income is an important factor affecting consumption. Consumption increases with the increase of income and decreases with the expansion of income gap. Therefore, a correct understanding of the relationship between income, income gap and consumption in Henan Province will be helpful to the right remedy and promote the good economic development of Henan Province. Based on the absolute income model and the relative income model, this paper makes use of the relevant time series data from 1978 to 2012 and the relevant panel data from 2002 to 2012. This paper first analyzes the relationship between income and consumption in Henan Province, and further studies the marginal consumption tendency of income from different sources. Secondly, this paper studies the influence of income gap on consumption by analyzing the marginal consumption tendency of residents of different income classes, and makes use of Gini coefficient at the same time. The relationship between the income ratio of urban and rural residents and the average propensity to consume explores the concrete influence of income gap on residents' consumption. First, there is a long-term equilibrium cointegration relationship between income and consumption in Henan Province, and income is the Granger cause of consumption. Second, the marginal propensity to consume is different among different sources of income, among which property income and transfer income have the highest marginal propensity to consume, which indicates that increasing these two incomes is more helpful to increase consumption. Third, there is a negative correlation between income level and marginal propensity to consume in different strata, so increasing income of low-income class is helpful to stimulate consumption. Fourth, the widening income gap will lead to a decline in consumer spending. On the basis of this, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions such as improving the income level of residents, perfecting the income distribution system, exerting the regulating function of finance and tax on income distribution and perfecting the social security system.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廈門大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F124.7;F126

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 柳欣;曹靜;;我國的收入分配與消費(fèi)分析[J];北方經(jīng)濟(jì);2006年13期

2 苑小豐;范輝;;城鄉(xiāng)收入差距對消費(fèi)需求影響研究[J];財(cái)經(jīng)問題研究;2010年06期

3 方福前;張艷麗;;城鄉(xiāng)居民不同收入的邊際消費(fèi)傾向及變動(dòng)趨勢分析[J];財(cái)貿(mào)經(jīng)濟(jì);2011年04期

4 邱泰如;;改善收入分配與擴(kuò)大居民消費(fèi)[J];福建行政學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào);2010年04期

5 程磊;;收入差距擴(kuò)大與中國內(nèi)需不足:理論機(jī)制與實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)科學(xué);2011年01期

6 范天珍;;河北省城鄉(xiāng)居民收入分配差距與消費(fèi)傾向的實(shí)證研究[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇;2010年09期

7 劉文斌;收入差距對消費(fèi)需求的制約[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)動(dòng)態(tài);2000年09期

8 黃衛(wèi)挺;;中國消費(fèi)函數(shù)的研究方法探討[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)動(dòng)態(tài);2011年11期

9 朱春燕,臧旭恒;預(yù)防性儲蓄理論——儲蓄(消費(fèi))函數(shù)的新進(jìn)展[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2001年01期

10 朱信凱;駱晨;;消費(fèi)函數(shù)的理論邏輯與中國化:一個(gè)文獻(xiàn)綜述[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2011年01期

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 胡雅梅;中國居民消費(fèi)傾向問題研究[D];中共中央黨校;2013年

，

本文編號：2347886