【摘要】：北京作為我國首都、“十三五”規(guī)劃核心戰(zhàn)略城市,中央對北京的社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展給予了厚望。但隨著北京在各方面取得了輝煌的成就同時(shí),社會(huì)、經(jīng)濟(jì)、資源、環(huán)境同時(shí)也暴露出了不協(xié)調(diào)的局面,一些大城市病癥,如人口擁擠、城市污染、霧霾等問題相繼成為焦點(diǎn),摯肘著北京經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與社會(huì)和諧。為研究和改善北京市社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r,本文基于系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)原理和方法,調(diào)研大量北京現(xiàn)狀數(shù)據(jù),利用Anylogic軟件構(gòu)建北京社會(huì)子系統(tǒng)、經(jīng)濟(jì)子系統(tǒng)、資源子系統(tǒng)、環(huán)境子系統(tǒng)這四大系統(tǒng)相互關(guān)聯(lián)、協(xié)同發(fā)展的仿真模型。先利用2012年至2015年的歷史數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行仿真驗(yàn)證,結(jié)果表明仿真數(shù)據(jù)誤差在10%以內(nèi),模型可行。并以此來對北京市未來四年(2016年至2019年)的社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展情況進(jìn)行模擬仿真。結(jié)合“十三五”規(guī)劃的相關(guān)指標(biāo),分別仿真了無控制措施下的北京社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r,以及有功能疏解、控制措施下的社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展情況。結(jié)果表明:四年后,在有控制措施情況下,社會(huì)人口、GDP、資源消耗、水耗等基本都符合“十三五”規(guī)劃的總體要求。為促進(jìn)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)協(xié)同發(fā)展,本文強(qiáng)調(diào)必須采取一系列的功能疏解以及控制措施:將人口控制、企業(yè)外遷、功能疏解、能耗控制、三廢治理、嚴(yán)控排放等,使得北京走向綠色和諧發(fā)展的道路。本文總共分為六章節(jié):第一章是緒論,交代了本文研究背景、意義、國內(nèi)外文獻(xiàn)綜述等;第二章是北京市的社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)狀同時(shí)也是本文的數(shù)據(jù)來源;第三章是本文核心的建模理論方法與基于系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)的模型構(gòu)建;第四章通過運(yùn)行結(jié)果針對模型的可行性做驗(yàn)證和誤差分析;第五章是對北京未來的社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)做仿真預(yù)測分析以及控制措施具體闡述;最后,第六章是對論文的總結(jié)和模型的不足分析以及展望。
[Abstract]:Beijing as the capital of China, the 13th Five-Year Plan core strategic city, the central government gives great hope to the social and economic development of Beijing. However, as Beijing has made brilliant achievements in various fields, at the same time, the society, economy, resources and environment have also exposed an incongruous situation. Some major urban diseases, such as population congestion, urban pollution, haze and so on, have become the focus one after another. Beijing's economic development and social harmony are seriously hindered. In order to study and improve the social and economic development of Beijing, based on the principles and methods of system dynamics, this paper investigates a large number of Beijing status data, using Anylogic software to build Beijing social subsystem, economic subsystem, resource subsystem. The simulation model of the four systems related to each other and cooperating with each other. The simulation results show that the error of the simulation data is less than 10%, and the model is feasible. The social and economic development of Beijing in the next four years (2016-2019) is simulated and simulated. Combined with the related indexes of the 13th Five-Year Plan, the social and economic development of Beijing under uncontrolled measures, as well as the situation of social and economic development with function and control measures, are simulated respectively. The results show that, four years later, the social population, GDP, resource consumption and water consumption basically meet the general requirements of the 13th Five-Year Plan. In order to promote the coordinated development of society and economy, this paper emphasizes that we must take a series of functions and control measures: population control, enterprise emigration, functional decontamination, energy consumption control, three waste control, strict control of emissions, etc. Make Beijing walk toward green harmonious development road. This paper is divided into six chapters: the first chapter is the introduction, which explains the research background, significance, literature review at home and abroad, the second chapter is the social and economic status of Beijing, and is also the data source of this paper. The third chapter is the core of this paper modeling theory and modeling method based on system dynamics, the fourth chapter through the results of the operation to verify the feasibility of the model and error analysis; The fifth chapter is to make the simulation forecast analysis and the control measure to Beijing's future social economy; finally, the sixth chapter is the summary of the thesis and the model insufficiency analysis and the prospect.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F127

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