【摘要】：本文基于一個(gè)內(nèi)含購(gòu)房決策的兩階段家庭最優(yōu)消費(fèi)模型,首次將房?jī)r(jià)上升對(duì)居民消費(fèi)傾向影響的財(cái)富效應(yīng)、流動(dòng)性約束效應(yīng)和替代效應(yīng)綜合在統(tǒng)一的理論框架內(nèi)。通過(guò)推導(dǎo)代表性家庭的購(gòu)房時(shí)間和在租房和自有房?jī)蓚�(gè)階段的最優(yōu)消費(fèi)路徑并進(jìn)行數(shù)值模擬,我們發(fā)現(xiàn)房?jī)r(jià)上升時(shí)租房家庭因推遲購(gòu)房而增加當(dāng)期消費(fèi),自有房家庭則因住房收益的增加而增加當(dāng)期消費(fèi)�；趪�(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局住戶調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)的實(shí)證研究進(jìn)一步證明,房?jī)r(jià)上升總體上導(dǎo)致我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)傾向上升。本文最后提出了謹(jǐn)慎抑制房?jī)r(jià)并通過(guò)發(fā)展質(zhì)量?jī)?yōu)良的公租房提升居民居住滿意度和幸福感的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Based on a two-stage family optimal consumption model, this paper integrates the wealth effect, liquidity constraint effect and substitution effect of the rising house price on the residents' consumption tendency in a unified theoretical framework for the first time. By deducing the time of purchase and the optimal consumption path in the two stages of rental and owner-house, we find that when the house price rises, the rental family increases the consumption of the current period because of the delay of buying a house. Home-owned families as a result of the increase in housing income and increased current consumption. The empirical study based on the household survey data of the National Bureau of Statistics further proves that the rise of house prices generally leads to an increase in the propensity of urban residents to consume in China. Finally, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to restrain house price carefully and improve residents' living satisfaction and happiness through the development of high quality public rental housing.
【作者單位】： 復(fù)旦大學(xué)公共經(jīng)濟(jì)研究中心;招商銀行上海分行;
【基金】：國(guó)家社科基金一般項(xiàng)目“房?jī)r(jià)上升對(duì)我國(guó)居民消費(fèi)傾向的影響及公共政策的作用研究”(編號(hào)11BJK020)和國(guó)家社科基金重大項(xiàng)目“中國(guó)特色公共經(jīng)濟(jì)理論與政策研究”(編號(hào)11&ZD079)
【分類號(hào)】：F126.1;F299.23

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