【摘要】：隨著全球氣候的持續(xù)變暖，環(huán)境問題越來越受到人們的關注。以二氧化碳為主的溫室氣體的大量排放成為影響全球變暖的重要因素之一。目前，溫室氣體排放控制的重點主要在減少能源消費引起的碳排放上面。減少碳排放、發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟已經(jīng)成為了世界各國的共識。作為世界上碳排放量最多的國家，我國政府在2010年宣布，到2020年實現(xiàn)單位GDP的碳排放強度比2005年下降40%—50%。江蘇省既是我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展最快的省份之一，又是全國碳排放的大省，碳減排責任重大。如何在保證經(jīng)濟增長的前提下降低碳排放是江蘇省亟需解決的問題。 本文通過江蘇省歷年能源平衡表，并結合IPCC評估報告提供的碳排放核算方法首先對江蘇省1995-2011年碳排放總量和分產(chǎn)業(yè)部門碳排放量進行測算，，然后分別從碳排放總體，產(chǎn)業(yè)結構，能源結構，與其他國家的橫向對比四個方面對江蘇省碳排放現(xiàn)狀進行分析。結果表明江蘇省碳排放總量逐年上升，其中第二產(chǎn)業(yè)碳排放占絕對比重；能源消費仍以煤炭為主；碳排放強度呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢，且優(yōu)于全國。 本文通過LMDI因素分解法并從經(jīng)濟發(fā)展效應、產(chǎn)業(yè)結構效應、能源強度效應、能源結構效應、碳強度效應和人口規(guī)模效應6個方面對江蘇省碳排放的影響因素進行了實證分析。結果表明經(jīng)濟增長是江蘇省碳排放的主要驅動因素，而能源強度的下降則是抑制碳排放的最主要因素。 本文通過運用單位根檢驗、協(xié)整檢驗，格蘭杰因果關系檢驗等檢驗方法并結合EKC曲線對江蘇省碳排放與經(jīng)濟增長的長期均衡關系進行研究。結果表明碳排放與經(jīng)濟增長之間存在著倒N型曲線關系，并以江蘇省1995-2011年GDP的年均12.3%的增長速度為前提，進一步可以判定江蘇省目前正處于碳排放總量上升，增速下降的初期階段。 本文構建了基于Taoio脫鉤指標的脫鉤擴展模型，研究了1995-2011年的江蘇省碳排放與經(jīng)濟增長之間的脫鉤彈性，結果表明江蘇省碳排放與經(jīng)濟增長之間在1995-1999年間總體呈現(xiàn)強脫鉤關系，而在2000-2011年呈現(xiàn)弱脫鉤關系，影響碳排放與經(jīng)濟增長脫鉤彈性的最重要的因素分別是經(jīng)濟增長脫鉤彈性和能源強度脫鉤彈性。
[Abstract]:With the continuous warming of the global climate, people pay more and more attention to the environmental problems. A large amount of greenhouse gas emissions, mainly carbon dioxide, have become one of the important factors affecting global warming. At present, the focus of greenhouse gas emission control is to reduce carbon emissions from energy consumption. Reducing carbon emissions, developing low-carbon economy has become the consensus of the world. As the largest carbon emitter in the world, our government announced in 2010 that by 2020, the intensity of carbon emissions per unit of GDP will be 40 to 50 lower than that of 2005. Jiangsu Province is not only one of the fastest growing provinces in our country, but also a big province of carbon emission in China. How to reduce carbon emissions while ensuring economic growth is an urgent problem in Jiangsu Province. Based on the energy balance table of Jiangsu Province over the years and the carbon emission accounting method provided by the IPCC assessment report, this paper first measures the total carbon emissions of Jiangsu Province from 1995 to 2011 and the carbon emissions from industrial sectors, then separately from the overall carbon emissions, industrial structure. Energy structure, compared with other countries in four aspects of carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province are analyzed. The results show that the total amount of carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province is increasing year by year, in which the carbon emissions of the secondary industry account for the absolute proportion; the energy consumption is still dominated by coal; the intensity of carbon emissions shows a downward trend and is superior to that of the whole country. In this paper, the factors influencing carbon emission in Jiangsu Province are analyzed by LMDI factor decomposition method from six aspects: economic development effect, industrial structure effect, energy intensity effect, energy structure effect, carbon intensity effect and population scale effect. The results show that economic growth is the main driving factor of carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province, and the decrease of energy intensity is the most important factor to restrain carbon emissions. In this paper, the long-term equilibrium relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in Jiangsu Province is studied by using unit root test, cointegration test, Granger causality test and EKC curve. The results show that the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth is inversely N-shaped. Based on the average annual growth rate of GDP in Jiangsu Province from 1995 to 2011, it can be further determined that Jiangsu Province is in the process of increasing total carbon emissions. The early stages of a slowdown in growth. In this paper, an extended decoupling model based on Taoio decoupling index is constructed, and the decoupling elasticity between carbon emissions and economic growth in Jiangsu Province from 1995 to 2011 is studied. The results show that there is a strong decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in Jiangsu Province from 1995 to 1999. The most important factors affecting decoupling elasticity of economic growth and carbon emission are economic growth decoupling elasticity and energy intensity decoupling elasticity respectively.
【學位授予單位】：南京航空航天大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F205;F127

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