發(fā)布時間：2018-10-14 20:47

【摘要】：投資、消費、凈出口與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)系是宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)一個最基本也是最重要的問題。三者規(guī)模和結(jié)構(gòu)是否合理，會影響到一個國家或地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)的各個方面，從長期上來說，會影響到經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和發(fā)展的穩(wěn)定性、長期性。所以，各宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)主體都十分重視本經(jīng)濟(jì)體投資、消費、凈出口的狀況，通過制定一些指標(biāo)去反映它們各自的規(guī)模、結(jié)構(gòu)，以研究與本地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展相協(xié)調(diào)的投資、消費、凈出口的規(guī)模與結(jié)構(gòu)的合理性。 河北省投資、消費和出口的規(guī)模和結(jié)構(gòu)是否合理，必然影響河北省經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長和發(fā)展，，因而，對其研究具有現(xiàn)實意義�；诖�，本文首先利用一些指標(biāo)測度了現(xiàn)階段河北省三大需求對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的作用，得到了河北省三大需求比率、三大需求貢獻(xiàn)率和拉動度，其分析結(jié)果是在河北省GDP中，投資率影響最大，依次是消費率和凈流出率，但是從貢獻(xiàn)度來說消費需求貢獻(xiàn)度和拉動度卻稍微高于投資需求；然后，用協(xié)整分析法和誤差修正模型證實了三大需求與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間的長期均衡和短期動態(tài)關(guān)系，得出無論長期還是短期在河北省的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長中，消費需求的帶動作用都是最強的；為了深入研究，本文采用主成分回歸法重點分析了消費需求結(jié)構(gòu)和對外需求結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)系；最后，基于分析結(jié)論，針對相關(guān)問題提出了一些對策建議。
[Abstract]:The relationship between investment, consumption, net export and economic growth is one of the most basic and important issues in macroeconomics. Whether the scale and structure of the three factors are reasonable will affect all aspects of the economy of a country or region. In the long run, it will affect the stability and long-term nature of economic growth and development. Therefore, all macroeconomic entities attach great importance to the situation of investment, consumption, and net exports of their own economies. By formulating some indicators to reflect their respective size and structure, they will study investment and consumption that are in harmony with the economic development of the region. The rationality of the scale and structure of net exports. Whether the scale and structure of investment, consumption and export of Hebei Province is reasonable or not will inevitably affect the economic growth and development of Hebei Province, so it is of practical significance to study the investment, consumption and export of Hebei Province. Based on this, this paper first uses some indicators to measure the effect of the three major demand on the economic growth in Hebei Province at present, and obtains the three demand ratio, the three demand contribution rate and the pull degree of Hebei Province. The result of the analysis is in the Hebei Province GDP. The investment rate is the most important, which is followed by consumption rate and net outflow rate, but the contribution and pull degree of consumer demand is slightly higher than that of investment demand in terms of contribution. Cointegration analysis and error correction model are used to confirm the long-term equilibrium and short-term dynamic relationship between the three major demand and economic growth. It is concluded that consumption demand is the strongest driving force in the economic growth of Hebei Province in both the long and short term. In order to further study the relationship between the structure of consumption demand and the structure of external demand and economic growth, the principal component regression method is used to analyze the relationship between the structure of consumption demand and the structure of external demand. Finally, based on the conclusion of the analysis, some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to solve the related problems.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F127

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