【摘要】：基于近年來拉美國家經(jīng)濟(jì)政策民粹化、福利趕超嚴(yán)重、出口多樣性不足以及經(jīng)濟(jì)增長停滯的現(xiàn)象,伴隨著中國進(jìn)入中等收入國家行列的事實(shí),本文從出口多樣性與民粹主義的角度,對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長進(jìn)行了探討,為我國及其他發(fā)展中國家跨越中等收入陷阱提供了新視角。利用以往的文獻(xiàn)分析與1995年到2010年跨國的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析,從理論和實(shí)證兩方面探討了出口多樣性及民粹主義對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響。 本文所討論的中等收入陷阱,是指發(fā)展中國家的人均收入水平處于中等收入國家行列時出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長停滯的一種現(xiàn)象。而民粹主義是指政府忽視財政赤字約束和其他外部條件限制,一味地采取擴(kuò)張性財政政策,以高福利、高社會保障的方式迎合選民利益的一種經(jīng)濟(jì)政策傾向。 理論分析表明：民粹主義政策要求政府增加開支、同時又不能增加稅負(fù),導(dǎo)致財政赤字高漲,進(jìn)而政府采取擴(kuò)張的貨幣政策使通貨膨脹惡化,為了穩(wěn)定匯率使外匯儲備消耗殆盡直至國際收支嚴(yán)重失衡,引發(fā)金融危機(jī)；另一方面,出口多樣性能通過消除不確定性風(fēng)險、促進(jìn)產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)的技術(shù)躍遷及其他方面的影響促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長,因此它的缺失使經(jīng)濟(jì)增長受損。這兩方面的因素都會導(dǎo)致一個國家經(jīng)濟(jì)增長停滯,陷入中等收入陷阱。 實(shí)證研究發(fā)現(xiàn)：在控制了其他的影響因素后,本文通過固定效應(yīng)回歸、隨機(jī)效應(yīng)回歸和混合回歸的分析比較,驗(yàn)證了本文理論部分所提出的三個理論假說,即民粹主義確實(shí)對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長有顯著的負(fù)面影響,出口多樣性對于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長有個正面的促進(jìn)作用和民粹主義對于出口多樣性有顯著的負(fù)面影響。 根據(jù)我們的研究,本文認(rèn)為,民粹主義的福利趕超以及出口多樣性的不足,成為近來發(fā)展中國家陷入中等收入陷阱的一個重要原因。隨著民主觀點(diǎn)的普及,民粹主義的福利趕超政策將在發(fā)展中國家得到推廣,伴隨著嚴(yán)重的財政赤字和出口多樣性的損失,對發(fā)展中國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況造成嚴(yán)重危害。采用與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展情況相匹配的、適當(dāng)?shù)母＠贫?鼓勵出口、增加一國的出口多樣性,這兩者或許成為發(fā)展中國家跨越中等收入陷阱的一個關(guān)鍵。
[Abstract]:Based on the populist economic policies of Latin American countries in recent years, the severity of welfare catch-up, the lack of export diversity and the stagnation of economic growth, China has been joining the ranks of middle-income countries. From the perspective of export diversity and populism, this paper probes into economic growth, which provides a new perspective for China and other developing countries to cross the middle-income trap. Based on the past literature analysis and transnational data from 1995 to 2010, this paper discusses the impact of export diversity and populism on economic growth from both theoretical and empirical aspects. The middle-income trap discussed in this paper refers to the stagnation of economic growth when the per capita income of developing countries is in the ranks of middle-income countries. Populism is an economic policy tendency that the government ignores the constraints of fiscal deficit and other external conditions and blindly adopts expansionary fiscal policies to cater to the interests of voters by means of high welfare and high social security. The theoretical analysis shows that the populist policy requires the government to increase its expenditure, but at the same time it cannot increase the tax burden, which leads to a high fiscal deficit, and then the government adopts an expansionary monetary policy to make inflation worse. In order to stabilize the exchange rate and drain foreign exchange reserves until the balance of payments is seriously unbalanced, leading to a financial crisis, on the other hand, export diversification can eliminate the risk of uncertainty, Technological transitions and other effects that promote product production promote economic growth, so its absence hurts economic growth. Both factors can cause a country's growth to stagnate and fall into the middle-income trap. The empirical study shows that after controlling for other influencing factors, this paper verifies the three theoretical hypotheses proposed in the theoretical part through the analysis and comparison of fixed effect regression, stochastic effect regression and mixed regression. That is, populism does have a significant negative impact on economic growth, export diversity has a positive impact on economic growth and populism has a significant negative impact on export diversity. According to our research, the populist welfare catch-up and the lack of export diversity have become an important reason for developing countries to fall into the middle-income trap recently. With the popularization of democratic views, populist welfare catch-up policies will be popularized in developing countries, accompanied by serious fiscal deficits and the loss of export diversity, which will seriously harm the economic situation of developing countries. The adoption of appropriate welfare systems, commensurate with economic development, that encourages exports and increases the diversity of a country's exports, may be a key for developing countries to move beyond the middle-income trap.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江工商大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F746;F113.8

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本文編號：2238923