美國與東北亞國際收支再平衡路徑研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-08-26 21:25
【摘要】：2008年全球金融危機(jī)使世界經(jīng)濟(jì)失衡成為學(xué)者討論的熱點問題。同時,為了減少危機(jī)帶來的沖擊、盡快從危機(jī)中恢復(fù)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長,世界經(jīng)濟(jì)再平衡及其路徑選擇成為眾多學(xué)者和決策者關(guān)注的焦點,具有重要的理論和現(xiàn)實意義。由于國際收支失衡是世界經(jīng)濟(jì)失衡的重要組成部分,因此國際收支再平衡成為本文研究世界經(jīng)濟(jì)再平衡路徑的切入點。同時,由于美國和東北亞經(jīng)濟(jì)體是國際收支失衡的典型代表,因此本文以美國、中國、日本和韓國為研究對象,分析這些國家國際收支失衡調(diào)整路徑的選擇及其依據(jù),為中國的國際收支政策調(diào)整提供參考意見。 本文通過理論回顧和實證研究,認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)體內(nèi)部經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)、經(jīng)濟(jì)體之間的發(fā)展差異是造成世界經(jīng)濟(jì)失衡的重要原因。因此,國際收支失衡作為世界經(jīng)濟(jì)失衡的代表,要對其進(jìn)行政策調(diào)整必須從內(nèi)部經(jīng)濟(jì)和外部經(jīng)濟(jì)兩方面入手,并且以內(nèi)部經(jīng)濟(jì)調(diào)整為主。從美國角度看,依照美國內(nèi)部經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的模擬結(jié)果,量化寬松政策、匯率政策對美國國際收支的改善起到積極作用,而降低企業(yè)所得稅、降低制造業(yè)進(jìn)口關(guān)稅的政策惡化了美國國際收支,但后兩種政策有利于美國內(nèi)部經(jīng)濟(jì)特別是制造業(yè)的恢復(fù)。而美國外部經(jīng)濟(jì)調(diào)整政策以TTP和TTIP為主,加入這兩種協(xié)議雖然有利于貿(mào)易赤字的減少,但效果極為有限,更明顯的效果體現(xiàn)為對美國內(nèi)部經(jīng)濟(jì)的促進(jìn)作用。因此,美國國際收支再平衡的路徑并不是以直接減少赤字為主要目標(biāo),而是提高美國就業(yè)率、促進(jìn)其內(nèi)部經(jīng)濟(jì)增長,并通過政策組合的方式平衡調(diào)整過程中過量的國際收支赤字。從日本的角度看,在日本近期出現(xiàn)罕見貿(mào)易赤字的情況下,其國際收支再平衡調(diào)整目標(biāo)以保持國際收支盈余為主,具體政策路徑為無限量量化寬松政策和匯率貶值政策,這兩項政策對提高日本國際收支盈余作用顯著。同時,為了應(yīng)對危機(jī)、刺激內(nèi)部經(jīng)濟(jì),日本還推出降低公司稅、提高政府支出的方法,雖然這些政策會增加國際收支逆差,但聯(lián)合貨幣政策抵消了全部逆差,同時有利于促進(jìn)日本內(nèi)部經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。從日本外部政策來看,加入TPP和RCEP效果相似,只會略微增加其貿(mào)易逆差,同時由于對日本福利水平和GDP的增長存在巨大的促進(jìn)作用,將促使日本加入這兩項協(xié)議。從韓國角度看,其國際收支再平衡路徑與美國相似,即并不追求國際收支盈余的增加,而重點在于對內(nèi)部經(jīng)濟(jì)的刺激。在韓國外部經(jīng)濟(jì)政策中,TPP和RCEP對韓國內(nèi)部經(jīng)濟(jì)的刺激作用明顯,卻都會造成韓國的凈出口減少。從中國的角度看,中國國際收支再平衡的目標(biāo)顯然以減少順差、刺激內(nèi)部經(jīng)濟(jì)增長為主。但根據(jù)中國財政與貨幣政策組合的模擬效果看,與這一目標(biāo)背道而馳,因此中國的國際收支再平衡路徑應(yīng)該減少貨幣供給、提高政府支出,引導(dǎo)人民幣匯率緩慢升值。從中國外部經(jīng)濟(jì)角度看,在適度實行保護(hù)性關(guān)稅的條件下加入中日韓FTP是促進(jìn)中國國際收支再平衡的有力措施之一,而對于TPP,不加入將使其內(nèi)外經(jīng)濟(jì)都受損,只有在韓國加入且完全削減關(guān)稅時才與中國國際收支調(diào)節(jié)的目標(biāo)一致。 本文共分六章：第一章為緒論。主要闡述論文的研究背景和研究意義,并對相關(guān)研究進(jìn)行文獻(xiàn)綜述,指出論文的創(chuàng)新點與不足。第二章介紹世界經(jīng)濟(jì)失衡和再平衡的相關(guān)理論。旨在從理論角度說明內(nèi)部經(jīng)濟(jì)對外部經(jīng)濟(jì)失衡的影響及調(diào)整作用。同時簡單介紹了GTAP模型的研究方法。第三章為世界經(jīng)濟(jì)失衡的主要表現(xiàn)與原因分析。通過對世界經(jīng)濟(jì)失衡現(xiàn)狀的描述和實證分析,從現(xiàn)實角度論證了世界經(jīng)濟(jì)失衡的原因以及內(nèi)部經(jīng)濟(jì)對世界經(jīng)濟(jì)失衡的作用。第四章分析美國國際收支再平衡的路徑選擇,通過總結(jié)美國在危機(jī)期間和危機(jī)后推出的內(nèi)外調(diào)整政策,模擬計算這些政策對國際收支的影響,以此作為美國國際收支再平衡路徑選擇的依據(jù)。第五章分析日韓國際收支再平衡的路徑選擇,結(jié)構(gòu)與第五章相似。第六章分析中國國際收支再平衡的路徑選擇�？偨Y(jié)了危機(jī)以來中國推出的各種經(jīng)濟(jì)政策,并計算其對國際收支產(chǎn)生的經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng),然后以此作為中國國際收支再平衡路徑選擇的依據(jù),提出了相關(guān)政策建議。
[Abstract]:At the same time, in order to reduce the impact of the crisis and restore economic growth from the crisis as soon as possible, the world economic rebalancing and its path choice have become the focus of attention of many scholars and policy makers, which has important theoretical and practical significance. The imbalance is an important part of the world economic imbalance, so the balance of payments rebalancing becomes the entry point of this paper to study the path of the world economic rebalancing. The choice and basis of the adjustment path of branch imbalance provide reference for China's adjustment of the balance of payments policy.
Through theoretical review and empirical research, this paper holds that the internal economic structure of the economy and the development differences between the economies are the important reasons for the imbalance of the world economy. From the perspective of the United States, according to the simulation results of the internal economic policies of the United States, quantitative easing policy and exchange rate policy play a positive role in improving the balance of payments of the United States, while the policies of reducing enterprise income tax and manufacturing import tariffs worsen the balance of payments of the United States, but the latter two policies are conducive to the internal economy of the United States. The US external economic adjustment policy is mainly TTP and TTIP. Although the two agreements are conducive to reducing the trade deficit, the effect is very limited, and the more obvious effect is reflected in the promotion of the US internal economy. Therefore, the path of rebalancing the US balance of payments is not to reduce the deficit directly. The main objective is to increase the employment rate of the United States, promote its internal economic growth, and balance excessive balance of payments deficits through a policy mix. At the same time, in order to cope with the crisis and stimulate the internal economy, Japan has also introduced ways to reduce corporate tax and increase government expenditure. Although these policies will increase the balance of payments deficit, but the United Monetary Administration. From Japan's external policy point of view, the effect of joining TPP and RCEP is similar, only slightly increasing its trade deficit. At the same time, Japan will join the two agreements because of the huge promotion effect on Japan's welfare level and GDP growth. The path of rebalancing is similar to that of the United States, that is, it does not seek to increase the balance of payments surplus, but focuses on stimulating the internal economy. However, according to the simulation results of China's fiscal and monetary policy combination, it is contrary to this goal. Therefore, China's balance of payments rebalancing path should reduce money supply, increase government expenditure, and guide the RMB exchange rate to appreciate slowly. It can be seen that joining the FTP of China, Japan and South Korea under the condition of moderate protective tariffs is one of the effective measures to promote the rebalancing of China's balance of payments. For TPP, not joining will damage both its domestic and foreign economies. Only when South Korea joins and cuts tariffs completely will it be consistent with the goal of China's balance of payments adjustment.
This paper is divided into six chapters: The first chapter is the introduction. It mainly expounds the research background and significance of the paper, and summarizes the relevant research, pointing out the innovation and shortcomings of the paper. The second chapter introduces the related theories of world economic imbalance and rebalancing, aiming at explaining the influence and adjustment of internal economy on external economic imbalance from a theoretical point of view. At the same time, it briefly introduces the research methods of GTAP model. Chapter 3 is the main manifestations and causes of world economic imbalances. Through the description and empirical analysis of the current situation of world economic imbalances, it demonstrates the causes of world economic imbalances and the role of the internal economy in the world economic imbalances. By summarizing the internal and external adjustment policies introduced by the United States during and after the crisis, this paper simulates and calculates the impact of these policies on the balance of payments as the basis for the choice of the path of the U.S. balance of payments rebalancing. Chapter 6 analyzes the path choice of China's balance of payments rebalancing, summarizes the various economic policies put forward by China since the crisis, and calculates their economic effects on the balance of payments, and then takes this as the basis for the path choice of China's balance of payments rebalancing, puts forward relevant policy recommendations.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F113
，
本文編號：2206205
[Abstract]:At the same time, in order to reduce the impact of the crisis and restore economic growth from the crisis as soon as possible, the world economic rebalancing and its path choice have become the focus of attention of many scholars and policy makers, which has important theoretical and practical significance. The imbalance is an important part of the world economic imbalance, so the balance of payments rebalancing becomes the entry point of this paper to study the path of the world economic rebalancing. The choice and basis of the adjustment path of branch imbalance provide reference for China's adjustment of the balance of payments policy.
Through theoretical review and empirical research, this paper holds that the internal economic structure of the economy and the development differences between the economies are the important reasons for the imbalance of the world economy. From the perspective of the United States, according to the simulation results of the internal economic policies of the United States, quantitative easing policy and exchange rate policy play a positive role in improving the balance of payments of the United States, while the policies of reducing enterprise income tax and manufacturing import tariffs worsen the balance of payments of the United States, but the latter two policies are conducive to the internal economy of the United States. The US external economic adjustment policy is mainly TTP and TTIP. Although the two agreements are conducive to reducing the trade deficit, the effect is very limited, and the more obvious effect is reflected in the promotion of the US internal economy. Therefore, the path of rebalancing the US balance of payments is not to reduce the deficit directly. The main objective is to increase the employment rate of the United States, promote its internal economic growth, and balance excessive balance of payments deficits through a policy mix. At the same time, in order to cope with the crisis and stimulate the internal economy, Japan has also introduced ways to reduce corporate tax and increase government expenditure. Although these policies will increase the balance of payments deficit, but the United Monetary Administration. From Japan's external policy point of view, the effect of joining TPP and RCEP is similar, only slightly increasing its trade deficit. At the same time, Japan will join the two agreements because of the huge promotion effect on Japan's welfare level and GDP growth. The path of rebalancing is similar to that of the United States, that is, it does not seek to increase the balance of payments surplus, but focuses on stimulating the internal economy. However, according to the simulation results of China's fiscal and monetary policy combination, it is contrary to this goal. Therefore, China's balance of payments rebalancing path should reduce money supply, increase government expenditure, and guide the RMB exchange rate to appreciate slowly. It can be seen that joining the FTP of China, Japan and South Korea under the condition of moderate protective tariffs is one of the effective measures to promote the rebalancing of China's balance of payments. For TPP, not joining will damage both its domestic and foreign economies. Only when South Korea joins and cuts tariffs completely will it be consistent with the goal of China's balance of payments adjustment.
This paper is divided into six chapters: The first chapter is the introduction. It mainly expounds the research background and significance of the paper, and summarizes the relevant research, pointing out the innovation and shortcomings of the paper. The second chapter introduces the related theories of world economic imbalance and rebalancing, aiming at explaining the influence and adjustment of internal economy on external economic imbalance from a theoretical point of view. At the same time, it briefly introduces the research methods of GTAP model. Chapter 3 is the main manifestations and causes of world economic imbalances. Through the description and empirical analysis of the current situation of world economic imbalances, it demonstrates the causes of world economic imbalances and the role of the internal economy in the world economic imbalances. By summarizing the internal and external adjustment policies introduced by the United States during and after the crisis, this paper simulates and calculates the impact of these policies on the balance of payments as the basis for the choice of the path of the U.S. balance of payments rebalancing. Chapter 6 analyzes the path choice of China's balance of payments rebalancing, summarizes the various economic policies put forward by China since the crisis, and calculates their economic effects on the balance of payments, and then takes this as the basis for the path choice of China's balance of payments rebalancing, puts forward relevant policy recommendations.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F113
，
本文編號：2206205
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