【摘要】：消費(fèi)、投資、出口是拉動(dòng)一個(gè)國家經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的“三駕馬車”,其中消費(fèi)需求在國民經(jīng)濟(jì)快速健康發(fā)展過程中有著重要的作用。城鎮(zhèn)居民的消費(fèi)需求是居民消費(fèi)需求的重要組成部分,正確全面地分析中國城鎮(zhèn)居民的消費(fèi)水平和消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu),掌握中國城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)的變動(dòng)趨勢及特征,對于政府部門制定相關(guān)消費(fèi)政策、刺激城鎮(zhèn)居民擴(kuò)大消費(fèi)需求有著重要的理論意義和實(shí)踐意義。長期以來中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展主要是依靠投資而不是消費(fèi),雖然投資能夠促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長增加產(chǎn)量,但也造成了生產(chǎn)部門資源過剩,在內(nèi)需不足的背景下,這種投資推動(dòng)型的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式已經(jīng)不適應(yīng)我國的現(xiàn)實(shí)情況,不能滿足經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的需要。消費(fèi)是經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的根本動(dòng)力,我們應(yīng)該注重消費(fèi)對經(jīng)濟(jì)的推動(dòng)力,發(fā)揮消費(fèi)對經(jīng)濟(jì)的拉動(dòng)作用。然而我國的各項(xiàng)制度改革使得城鎮(zhèn)居民的支出不確定性增加,導(dǎo)致城鎮(zhèn)居民為防范未來的不確定性減少消費(fèi),增加儲蓄,這些制度改革引起的不確定性使我國城鎮(zhèn)居民的消費(fèi)發(fā)生了顯著改變。本文運(yùn)用定性與定量相結(jié)合的分析方法,對中國城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)水平和消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的不確定性因素及影響程度進(jìn)行研究。本文首先介紹論文選題的背景及意義、國內(nèi)外文獻(xiàn)綜述、文章采用的研究方法及文章的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn);其次,分析相關(guān)的消費(fèi)理論,為本文的研究奠定理論基礎(chǔ);再次,分析我國城鎮(zhèn)居民的消費(fèi)水平和結(jié)構(gòu)現(xiàn)狀,以及教育、醫(yī)療、住房等支出不確定性和就業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等引起的收入不確定性對中國城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)的影響,依據(jù)城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)水平和消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)狀況來分析城鎮(zhèn)居民的消費(fèi)特征;在實(shí)證研究上,運(yùn)用1978-2014年相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)構(gòu)建中國城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)水平和消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)模型,定量分析城鎮(zhèn)居民可支配收入、收入不確定性和城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)中教育、醫(yī)療、住房價(jià)格變動(dòng)對城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)的影響。最后,根據(jù)定性和定量的分析結(jié)論,提出具有針對性的政策建議。本文采用調(diào)整離差率表示我國城鎮(zhèn)居民面臨的收入不確定性,這是本文的一個(gè)創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)。分別選取教育價(jià)格增長、居住價(jià)格增長和醫(yī)療保健價(jià)格增長代表城鎮(zhèn)居民面臨的教育支出不確定性、居住支出不確定性和醫(yī)療保健支出不確定性。本文從中國城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)水平和消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的現(xiàn)狀分析和實(shí)證分析中得出結(jié)論:中國城鎮(zhèn)居民的消費(fèi)支出不僅受可支配收入影響,還受城鎮(zhèn)居民未來收入和未來支出不確定性的影響。城鎮(zhèn)居民的可支配收入是影響消費(fèi)的主要因素,收入不確定性和支出不確定性都與城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)負(fù)相關(guān),制約著城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi),且收入不確定性對消費(fèi)支出的影響更大。在支出不確定性方面,教育價(jià)格、醫(yī)療保健價(jià)格、居住價(jià)格發(fā)生變化時(shí),均會(huì)引起城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)支出反方向變化,在三者之中,教育消費(fèi)支出的影響最大,其次是醫(yī)療,最后是居住,但是居住價(jià)格變化對城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)支出的影響也是值得關(guān)注的。
[Abstract]:Consumption, investment and export are the "troika" to stimulate a country's economic growth, among which consumer demand plays an important role in the rapid and healthy development of the national economy. The consumption demand of the urban residents is an important part of the consumption demand of the residents. The consumption level and structure of the Chinese urban residents are analyzed correctly and comprehensively, and the changing trend and characteristics of the consumption of the Chinese urban residents are grasped. It has important theoretical and practical significance for government departments to formulate relevant consumption policies and stimulate urban residents to expand their consumption demand. For a long time, China's economic development has mainly depended on investment rather than consumption. Although investment can promote economic growth and increase output, it has also caused a surplus of resources in the production sector. In the context of insufficient domestic demand, This investment-driven mode of economic development has not been able to adapt to the reality of our country, can not meet the needs of economic development. Consumption is the fundamental power of economic development, we should pay attention to the driving force of consumption to the economy, play the role of consumption to the economy. However, the system reform of our country has increased the uncertainty of urban residents' expenditure, and led them to reduce their consumption and increase their savings in order to guard against the uncertainty in the future. The uncertainty caused by these system reforms has significantly changed the consumption of urban residents in China. In this paper, the uncertain factors and influence degree of consumption level and consumption structure of urban residents in China are studied by means of qualitative and quantitative analysis. This paper first introduces the background and significance of the topic, literature review at home and abroad, the research methods used in the article and the innovation of the article; secondly, analysis of the relevant consumption theory, to lay a theoretical foundation for this study; third, This paper analyzes the consumption level and structure of urban residents in China, and the influence of the uncertainty of expenditure, such as education, medical treatment, housing and employment risk, on the consumption of Chinese urban residents. Based on the consumption level and consumption structure of urban residents, this paper analyzes the consumption characteristics of urban residents, and constructs the consumption level and consumption structure model of Chinese urban residents by using the relevant data from 1978 to 2014. Quantitative analysis of urban residents' disposable income, income uncertainty and the influence of the change of education, medical treatment and housing price on the consumption of urban residents in the consumption structure of urban residents. Finally, according to the qualitative and quantitative analysis conclusions, put forward targeted policy recommendations. In this paper, the adjusted deviation rate is used to express the income uncertainty faced by urban residents in China, which is an innovation of this paper. The increase of education price, housing price and health care price respectively represent the uncertainty of education expenditure, housing expenditure and health care expenditure faced by urban residents. This paper draws a conclusion from the current situation analysis and empirical analysis of the consumption level and consumption structure of Chinese urban residents: the consumption expenditure of Chinese urban residents is not only affected by disposable income. Also affected by the uncertainty of future income and future expenditure of urban residents. The disposable income of urban residents is the main factor affecting consumption. The uncertainty of income and expenditure is negatively related to the consumption of urban residents, which restricts the consumption of urban residents, and the uncertainty of income has a greater impact on consumption expenditure. In terms of the uncertainty of expenditure, when the price of education, health care and housing changes, it will cause the reverse direction change of the consumption expenditure of urban residents. Of the three, the impact of the expenditure on education is the greatest, followed by the medical treatment. The last one is residence, but the influence of the change of housing price on the consumption expenditure of urban residents is also worthy of attention.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F126.1

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 崔海燕;杭斌;;收入差距、習(xí)慣形成與城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)行為[J];管理工程學(xué)報(bào);2014年03期

2 王小剛;;基于結(jié)構(gòu)突變的城鄉(xiāng)居民消費(fèi)行為研究[J];統(tǒng)計(jì)與信息論壇;2013年06期

3 胡德寶;;中國城鎮(zhèn)居民的消費(fèi)行為及儲蓄動(dòng)機(jī)研究[J];中國軟科學(xué);2012年10期

4 徐小鷹;;房價(jià)上漲影響居民消費(fèi)的作用機(jī)制分析——基于預(yù)防性儲蓄效應(yīng)視角[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)問題;2012年10期

5 徐強(qiáng);;我國城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)行為的協(xié)整研究及政策建議[J];華東經(jīng)濟(jì)管理;2012年09期

6 姜洋;鄧翔;;居民消費(fèi)行為的收入決定論——中國城鄉(xiāng)居民消費(fèi)函數(shù)的省際驗(yàn)證[J];中央財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2011年11期

7 李輝;徐會(huì)奇;;城鄉(xiāng)居民消費(fèi)行為比較研究[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)經(jīng)緯;2011年03期

8 張衛(wèi)紅;;中國城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)行為計(jì)量研究[J];成人高教學(xué)刊;2010年06期

9 龍海明;熊黎;柳沙玲;;改革開放以來湖南省城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)行為實(shí)證研究[J];湖南大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(自然科學(xué)版);2010年11期

10 王健宇;;收入不確定性的測算方法研究[J];統(tǒng)計(jì)研究;2010年09期

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前4條

1 胡雅梅;中國居民消費(fèi)傾向問題研究[D];中共中央黨校;2013年

2 徐索菲;中國城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)需求變動(dòng)及影響因素研究[D];吉林大學(xué);2011年

3 唐兵;建國以來中國消費(fèi)者行為變遷研究[D];西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué);2010年

4 趙曉英;不確定性對我國城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)和投資組合選擇的影響研究[D];湖南大學(xué);2007年

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前5條

1 栗娟;收入與支出的不確定性對山西居民消費(fèi)的影響研究[D];山西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué);2015年

2 朱然;預(yù)防性儲蓄動(dòng)機(jī)對中國居民消費(fèi)行為影響的實(shí)證分析[D];廣東商學(xué)院;2012年

3 王偉;山東省城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)水平的研究[D];山東大學(xué);2012年

4 龔攀峰;習(xí)慣形成下的城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)行為研究[D];山西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué);2011年

5 鄭浩杰;河南省城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)實(shí)證分析[D];河南大學(xué);2008年

，

本文編號：2199243