【摘要】：經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率和通貨膨脹率是衡量一個(gè)國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行狀況的基本指標(biāo)，對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與通貨膨脹運(yùn)行規(guī)律進(jìn)行研究，可為我國(guó)實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)健康快速可持續(xù)發(fā)展的宏觀調(diào)控政策提供有力支持。通貨膨脹與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的影響機(jī)制是研究中需要首先解決的問(wèn)題，本文從定量的角度研究我國(guó)通貨膨脹與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的影響機(jī)制，在對(duì)相關(guān)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行合理選擇的基礎(chǔ)上，依據(jù)時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)建立VAR模型，通過(guò)Granger因果檢驗(yàn)和脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)，指出經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率對(duì)通貨膨脹率的影響程度存在拐點(diǎn)，通貨膨脹率對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率的影響存在拐點(diǎn)。在此基礎(chǔ)上，，本文應(yīng)用二元選擇模型進(jìn)一步測(cè)定了通脹加劇預(yù)警點(diǎn)和經(jīng)濟(jì)減速運(yùn)行預(yù)警點(diǎn)。最后，本文根據(jù)通貨膨脹與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的影響機(jī)制以及測(cè)定的兩個(gè)預(yù)警點(diǎn)，為我國(guó)促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、保障物價(jià)穩(wěn)定提出建設(shè)性建議。
[Abstract]:The economic growth rate and inflation rate are the basic indicators to measure the economic operation of a country. The law of economic growth and inflation is studied. It can provide strong support for macro-control policy of realizing healthy and fast sustainable development of economy in our country. The influence mechanism between inflation and economic growth is the first problem to be solved in the study. This paper studies the influence mechanism between inflation and economic growth from a quantitative perspective, on the basis of reasonable selection of relevant indicators. Based on the time series data, the VAR model is established. Through Granger causality test and impulse response function, it is pointed out that there is an inflection point in the influence of economic growth rate on inflation rate, and the inflection point exists in the influence of inflation rate on economic growth rate. On this basis, this paper uses the binary selection model to further determine the inflation aggravation warning point and the economic deceleration operation warning point. Finally, according to the influence mechanism between inflation and economic growth and the two early warning points measured, this paper puts forward constructive suggestions for promoting economic growth and ensuring price stability in China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F822.5;F124

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