湖南省城鄉(xiāng)居民消費差距及其影響因素研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-07-15 07:40
【摘要】：消費是經濟增長的重要驅動力。2008年金融危機爆發(fā)后，我國貿易出口增長受限，而國內投資率水平較高，擴大內需成為刺激經濟增長的重要渠道。作為“中部崛起”戰(zhàn)略重要省份之一，湖南省承擔了擴內需、促增長的重任。拉動消費必須采取合理有效的方式，因此關注消費的二元結構、促進城鄉(xiāng)消費公平是湖南省刺激消費需求、穩(wěn)定經濟發(fā)展亟待研究的核心課題。改革開放以來，湖南省城鄉(xiāng)居民消費差距不斷擴大，城鄉(xiāng)居民人均消費支出比值由1978年的2.77倍增長至2012年的2.83倍，2010年甚至達到3.26倍，2012年農村居民恩格爾系數僅相當于城鎮(zhèn)居民十年前水平，城鄉(xiāng)居民在消費水平和消費結構上均存在較大差距。 本文以湖南省城鄉(xiāng)居民消費差距為研究對象，在對相關消費理論進行梳理后，將消費差距從總量、質量和變動趨向三個維度進行分解，分別從消費水平差距、結構差距和傾向及彈性差距視角進行考察，分析表明湖南省農村居民消費在總量和質量上均遠落后與城鎮(zhèn)居民，，農村消費市場需求潛力尚待挖掘。接著，從收入差距、二元經濟結構、金融發(fā)展和政府公共服務支出視角探討影響城鄉(xiāng)居民消費差距的主要因素。基于VAR模型的實證分析結果表明：湖南省城鄉(xiāng)居民消費水平差距和城鄉(xiāng)居民消費結構差距與上述因素間均存在長期均衡關系；城鄉(xiāng)居民收入差距的擴大對城鄉(xiāng)消費差距具有持續(xù)、顯著的促進作用；城鄉(xiāng)二元經濟結構的緩解對城鄉(xiāng)居民消費差距具有持續(xù)、顯著的抑制作用；金融發(fā)展水平的提高帶來的非均衡效應大于增收效應，對城鄉(xiāng)居民消費差距有拉動作用，該影響具有一定滯后性；公共服務支出水平通過顯著抑制城鄉(xiāng)居民消費結構差距從而有效縮小城鄉(xiāng)消費差距。最后，根據湖南省城鄉(xiāng)居民消費差距的現狀，結合影響因素的機理與實證研究，從縮小城鄉(xiāng)收入差距、緩解城鄉(xiāng)二元經濟結構、均衡城鄉(xiāng)金融發(fā)展、持續(xù)城鄉(xiāng)公共服務投入和縮小城鄉(xiāng)消費環(huán)境差距五個方面提出縮小湖南省城鄉(xiāng)居民消費差距的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Consumption is an important driving force of economic growth. After the financial crisis broke out in 2008, China's trade export growth is restricted, while the domestic investment rate is relatively high, expanding domestic demand has become an important channel to stimulate economic growth. As one of the important provinces in the strategy of "Central China rising", Hunan Province undertakes the important task of boosting domestic demand and promoting growth. Therefore, to pay attention to the dual structure of consumption and to promote urban and rural consumption equity is the core task of Hunan Province to stimulate consumption demand and stabilize economic development. Since the reform and opening up, the gap between urban and rural residents' consumption in Hunan Province has been widening. The ratio of per capita consumption expenditure of urban and rural residents increased from 2.77 times in 1978 to 2.83 times in 2012, and even reached 3.26 times in 2010. In 2012, the Engel coefficient of rural residents was only equivalent to the level of urban residents 10 years ago. There is a big gap between urban and rural residents in consumption level and consumption structure. In this paper, the consumption gap between urban and rural residents in Hunan Province as the research object, after combing the relevant consumption theory, the consumption gap from the total amount, quality and change trend of three dimensions, respectively from the consumption level gap, From the perspective of structural gap, tendency and elasticity gap, the analysis shows that the total and quality consumption of rural residents in Hunan Province is far behind that of urban residents, and the demand potential of rural consumption market needs to be excavated. Then, from the perspective of income gap, dual economic structure, financial development and government public service expenditure, this paper discusses the main factors that affect the consumption gap between urban and rural residents. The empirical results based on VAR model show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the gap of consumption level between urban and rural residents and the gap of consumption structure between urban and rural residents in Hunan Province. The widening of the income gap between urban and rural residents has a sustained and significant promoting effect on the urban-rural consumption gap, and the alleviation of urban-rural dual economic structure has a sustained and significant inhibitory effect on the urban-rural residents' consumption gap. The disequilibrium effect brought by the improvement of financial development level is greater than that of income increase, which has a pulling effect on the consumption gap between urban and rural residents, which has a certain lag effect. The level of public service expenditure can effectively reduce the gap between urban and rural consumption by significantly reducing the gap of consumption structure between urban and rural residents. Finally, according to the current situation of consumption gap between urban and rural residents in Hunan Province, combined with the mechanism and empirical study of influencing factors, from narrowing the urban-rural income gap, alleviating the urban-rural dual economic structure, balancing the urban and rural financial development, This paper puts forward some policy suggestions on reducing the gap between urban and rural residents in Hunan Province from five aspects: sustaining urban and rural public service investment and narrowing the gap between urban and rural consumption environment.
【學位授予單位】：湖南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F126.1
本文編號：2123354
[Abstract]:Consumption is an important driving force of economic growth. After the financial crisis broke out in 2008, China's trade export growth is restricted, while the domestic investment rate is relatively high, expanding domestic demand has become an important channel to stimulate economic growth. As one of the important provinces in the strategy of "Central China rising", Hunan Province undertakes the important task of boosting domestic demand and promoting growth. Therefore, to pay attention to the dual structure of consumption and to promote urban and rural consumption equity is the core task of Hunan Province to stimulate consumption demand and stabilize economic development. Since the reform and opening up, the gap between urban and rural residents' consumption in Hunan Province has been widening. The ratio of per capita consumption expenditure of urban and rural residents increased from 2.77 times in 1978 to 2.83 times in 2012, and even reached 3.26 times in 2010. In 2012, the Engel coefficient of rural residents was only equivalent to the level of urban residents 10 years ago. There is a big gap between urban and rural residents in consumption level and consumption structure. In this paper, the consumption gap between urban and rural residents in Hunan Province as the research object, after combing the relevant consumption theory, the consumption gap from the total amount, quality and change trend of three dimensions, respectively from the consumption level gap, From the perspective of structural gap, tendency and elasticity gap, the analysis shows that the total and quality consumption of rural residents in Hunan Province is far behind that of urban residents, and the demand potential of rural consumption market needs to be excavated. Then, from the perspective of income gap, dual economic structure, financial development and government public service expenditure, this paper discusses the main factors that affect the consumption gap between urban and rural residents. The empirical results based on VAR model show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the gap of consumption level between urban and rural residents and the gap of consumption structure between urban and rural residents in Hunan Province. The widening of the income gap between urban and rural residents has a sustained and significant promoting effect on the urban-rural consumption gap, and the alleviation of urban-rural dual economic structure has a sustained and significant inhibitory effect on the urban-rural residents' consumption gap. The disequilibrium effect brought by the improvement of financial development level is greater than that of income increase, which has a pulling effect on the consumption gap between urban and rural residents, which has a certain lag effect. The level of public service expenditure can effectively reduce the gap between urban and rural consumption by significantly reducing the gap of consumption structure between urban and rural residents. Finally, according to the current situation of consumption gap between urban and rural residents in Hunan Province, combined with the mechanism and empirical study of influencing factors, from narrowing the urban-rural income gap, alleviating the urban-rural dual economic structure, balancing the urban and rural financial development, This paper puts forward some policy suggestions on reducing the gap between urban and rural residents in Hunan Province from five aspects: sustaining urban and rural public service investment and narrowing the gap between urban and rural consumption environment.
【學位授予單位】：湖南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F126.1
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