本文選題：經(jīng)濟(jì)周期階段 + 影響因素　； 參考：《湖南大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：湖南省作為中部崛起的省份之一，近年來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)總量連續(xù)排名全國(guó)前十，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度也高于全國(guó)的整體水平。經(jīng)濟(jì)快速發(fā)展的同時(shí)，我們也要注意到在當(dāng)前復(fù)雜的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境下，我省仍然面臨著各種不確定因素，在提升經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度的同時(shí)也要謹(jǐn)防相關(guān)因素波動(dòng)對(duì)我省經(jīng)濟(jì)周期階段的影響。本文試圖在劃分我省經(jīng)濟(jì)周期階段的基礎(chǔ)上，把握我省整體的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)，了解各影響因素對(duì)我省經(jīng)濟(jì)周期階段的影響程度，為促進(jìn)我省經(jīng)濟(jì)平穩(wěn)快速發(fā)展并向繁榮階段轉(zhuǎn)換提出政策建議。 本文在對(duì)相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行總結(jié)和歸納的基礎(chǔ)上，首先對(duì)影響經(jīng)濟(jì)周期階段轉(zhuǎn)換的各因素進(jìn)行機(jī)理分析，主要從需求、供給、制度以及外部沖擊四個(gè)方面進(jìn)行傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制研究。其次，采用STAR模型對(duì)我省經(jīng)濟(jì)周期階段進(jìn)行兩階段劃分，，在此基礎(chǔ)上采用生產(chǎn)函數(shù)法進(jìn)行四階段劃分，對(duì)上述兩階段劃分的結(jié)果進(jìn)行佐證，并結(jié)合我省經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的典型事實(shí)，對(duì)實(shí)證結(jié)果進(jìn)行調(diào)整。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明：我省經(jīng)濟(jì)周期階段存在明顯的非對(duì)稱性，但并未出現(xiàn)嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)蕭條和經(jīng)濟(jì)過(guò)熱，經(jīng)濟(jì)周期階段的轉(zhuǎn)換速度較快。此外，還對(duì)湖南省與全國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)周期進(jìn)行了對(duì)比分析，結(jié)果表明：我省與全國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)周期在一定程度上具有協(xié)同性，所經(jīng)歷的經(jīng)濟(jì)周期也具有一定的相似性，但同時(shí)我省又有自己的特點(diǎn)。再次，利用多元有序Probit模型，對(duì)影響湖南省經(jīng)濟(jì)周期階段轉(zhuǎn)換的部分因素進(jìn)行邊際效應(yīng)分析，研究各因素對(duì)我省經(jīng)濟(jì)周期階段轉(zhuǎn)換的影響程度。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明：需求增加，技術(shù)創(chuàng)新，制度優(yōu)化以及外部經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境上行時(shí)，有利于提升我省經(jīng)濟(jì)周期向繁榮階段轉(zhuǎn)換的可能性。最后，結(jié)合probit模型的實(shí)證結(jié)果，立足于我省當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展情況，就如何保持我省經(jīng)濟(jì)平穩(wěn)快速發(fā)展、促進(jìn)其向繁榮階段轉(zhuǎn)換提出若干政策建議。
[Abstract]:As one of the rising provinces in central China, Hunan Province ranks among the top ten in economic output in recent years, and its economic growth rate is also higher than that of the whole country. At the same time of rapid economic development, we should also note that in the current complex economic environment, our province still faces a variety of uncertainties. At the same time, we should guard against the influence of the fluctuation of related factors on the economic cycle stage of our province. On the basis of dividing the economic cycle stage of our province, this paper attempts to grasp the overall economic situation of our province, and to understand the influence of various factors on the economic cycle stage of our province. In order to promote the steady and rapid development of the economy of our province and the transition to the prosperous stage, some policy suggestions are put forward. On the basis of summarizing and summarizing the relevant literatures, this paper firstly analyzes the mechanism of the factors that affect the transition of economic cycle, mainly from four aspects: demand, supply, institution and external shock. Secondly, we use star model to divide the economic cycle stage of our province into two stages, and on this basis, we use the production function method to divide the four stages, and prove the results of the above two stages division, and combine with the typical facts of the economic development of our province. The empirical results are adjusted. The empirical results show that there are obvious asymmetries in the economic cycle in our province, but there is no serious economic depression and overheating, and the transition speed of the economic cycle stage is relatively fast. In addition, the economic cycles of Hunan Province and the whole country are compared and analyzed. The results show that the economic cycles of Hunan Province and the whole country are synergistic to a certain extent, and the economic cycles experienced by them are similar to each other. But at the same time, our province also has its own characteristics. Thirdly, by using the multi-ordered probit model, the marginal effects of some factors affecting the economic cycle phase transition in Hunan Province are analyzed, and the degree of influence of each factor on the economic cycle phase transition in Hunan Province is studied. The empirical results show that the increase of demand, technological innovation, system optimization and the uplink of the external economic environment will help to promote the possibility of the economic cycle changing to the prosperous stage in our province. Finally, based on the empirical results of probit model, based on the current situation of economic development in our province, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to maintain the steady and rapid economic development of our province and promote its transition to prosperity stage.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F224;F127

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