發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-07-04 16:59

  本文選題：低碳經(jīng)濟(jì) + 影響因素　； 參考：《天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來(lái),全球氣候變暖引發(fā)的極端惡劣天氣頻頻發(fā)生,對(duì)人類的生存和社會(huì)的發(fā)展構(gòu)成了嚴(yán)重威脅,愈演愈烈的溫室效應(yīng)也引起了各國(guó)政府和民眾的廣泛關(guān)注,因此,減少碳排放量、發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)已成為各國(guó)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的必然選擇。中國(guó)作為一個(gè)發(fā)展中國(guó)家,正處于經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵時(shí)期,同時(shí)也面臨著碳減排工作的巨大壓力。在此背景下,研究中國(guó)低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響因素及發(fā)展路徑顯得尤為重要。本文對(duì)影響中國(guó)低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的因素進(jìn)行了深入分析,并選取了全面反映這些因素的十項(xiàng)指標(biāo),根據(jù)1985年-2012年的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),利用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析法篩選出與低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展關(guān)聯(lián)度較高的指標(biāo),對(duì)其與二氧化碳排放量進(jìn)行協(xié)整分析并建立向量誤差修正模型,以期從長(zhǎng)期均衡和短期波動(dòng)兩個(gè)方面分析二氧化碳排放量與其主要影響因素之間的關(guān)系。在此基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)中國(guó)低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展路徑進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究,將其主要影響因素加入環(huán)境庫(kù)茲涅茨曲線模型中,擬合了中國(guó)的環(huán)境庫(kù)茲涅茨曲線,判斷其存在性并分析其拐點(diǎn)的具體位置。研究結(jié)果共分兩個(gè)部分：第一,我國(guó)低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的影響因素包括經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、社會(huì)發(fā)展、能源消費(fèi)、技術(shù)進(jìn)步和國(guó)際貿(mào)易五個(gè)方面,其中前三者對(duì)二氧化碳排放量的影響較為顯著,同時(shí)能更加準(zhǔn)確地表征這三個(gè)因素的指標(biāo)分別為國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)、城鎮(zhèn)化率和能源消費(fèi)總量,它們與二氧化碳排放量之間存在長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定的均衡關(guān)系及Granger因果關(guān)系,并且在短期內(nèi),它們的波動(dòng)也會(huì)對(duì)二氧化碳排放量產(chǎn)生影響,其誤差修正速度為39.76%。第二,我國(guó)低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展路徑為正“U”型曲線,其拐點(diǎn)值為GDP等于20253.06億元,遠(yuǎn)小于我國(guó)目前的GDP,這說(shuō)明我國(guó)已處于拐點(diǎn)的右側(cè),即環(huán)境質(zhì)量隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)而逐漸惡化的階段。依據(jù)以上分析,本文提出了穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)；控制人口增長(zhǎng),鼓勵(lì)低碳生活；開發(fā)清潔能源,優(yōu)化能源結(jié)構(gòu)；加大技術(shù)投入,提高能源效率；改善出口結(jié)構(gòu),加強(qiáng)國(guó)際交流等相關(guān)政策建議。
[Abstract]:In recent years, extreme severe weather caused by global warming has occurred frequently, which poses a serious threat to the survival of human beings and the development of society. The growing Greenhouse Effect has also aroused the widespread concern of governments and people all over the world. Reducing carbon emissions and developing low-carbon economy have become the inevitable choice of sustainable development. As a developing country, China is in the critical period of economic development, and also faces great pressure of carbon emission reduction. In this context, it is particularly important to study the influencing factors and development path of China's low-carbon economy. This paper makes an in-depth analysis of the factors that affect the development of low-carbon economy in China, and selects ten indicators that comprehensively reflect these factors, according to the relevant data from 1985 to 2012. The grey correlation analysis method is used to screen out the indexes with high correlation degree with the development of low-carbon economy, and the cointegration analysis between them and carbon dioxide emissions is carried out, and the vector error correction model is established. The relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and its main influencing factors is analyzed from two aspects of long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuation. On this basis, the development path of China's low-carbon economy is empirically studied, and the main influencing factors are added to the environmental Kuznets curve model, and the environmental Kuznets curve of China is fitted. Judge its existence and analyze the specific position of its inflection point. The research results are divided into two parts: first, the influencing factors of China's low-carbon economic development include economic development, social development, energy consumption, technological progress and international trade. The first three factors have a significant impact on carbon dioxide emissions, and the indicators that can more accurately represent these three factors are the gross domestic product (GDP), the urbanization rate and the total energy consumption. There is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship and Granger causality between them and carbon dioxide emissions, and in the short term, their fluctuations will also have an effect on carbon dioxide emissions, and the error correction speed is 39.76. Second, the development path of China's low-carbon economy is a positive "U" curve with a inflection point of 2.025306 trillion yuan, which is far smaller than the current GDP of China, which indicates that China is already on the right side of the inflection point. That is, the environmental quality with economic growth and gradually deteriorating stage. Based on the above analysis, this paper proposes to stabilize economic growth, adjust industrial structure, control population growth, encourage low-carbon living, develop clean energy, optimize energy structure, increase technology investment, improve energy efficiency, improve export structure, Strengthen international exchange and other relevant policy recommendations.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F124.5

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