發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-07-03 11:16

  本文選題：流動性 + 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長�。� 參考：《天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來我國逐步推進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)體制改革,資本市場借助各方支持得到長足發(fā)展。通過銀行體系獲得資金的間接融資方式在2005年前還占據(jù)優(yōu)勢,但在2005年后,隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型升級的不斷優(yōu)化,通過股票市場、債券市場的直接融資途徑得到金融政策、法律法規(guī)的大力扶持獲得快速發(fā)展。與此同時(shí),社會融資規(guī)模日益擴(kuò)大,經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)平穩(wěn)持續(xù),但是人民幣貸款占比出現(xiàn)下降態(tài)勢,以銀行表外融資、民間借貸、企業(yè)債等途徑的直接融資比重卻逐漸增大,這一狀況充分表明當(dāng)前的社會融資結(jié)構(gòu)已發(fā)生變化。文章在金融結(jié)構(gòu)理論的基礎(chǔ)上,分析了融資結(jié)構(gòu)變化的表現(xiàn)和影響。在分析當(dāng)前流動性狀況時(shí)站在不同角度,運(yùn)用HP濾波法、馬歇爾K值法、流動性缺口法,得出流動性總量剩余、總體合理可控的結(jié)論,進(jìn)而解釋了“錢荒”問題的本質(zhì)。關(guān)于融資結(jié)構(gòu)變化對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響,文章按照計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)研究方法,在設(shè)計(jì)計(jì)量模型時(shí)創(chuàng)新性的以社會融資規(guī)模中的直接融資和間接融資做自變量,去觀察和因變量GDP的關(guān)系,分析不同融資方式對GDP作用的大小,得出直接融資在促進(jìn)未來經(jīng)濟(jì)增長中發(fā)揮積極作用的結(jié)論。與其他論文不同的是文章對融資結(jié)構(gòu)、流動性、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長三者間進(jìn)行聯(lián)動分析,揭示它們之間相互牽連、息息相關(guān)的本質(zhì)。最后依據(jù)文章的研究成果,針對當(dāng)前現(xiàn)狀,提出優(yōu)化融資結(jié)構(gòu),擴(kuò)大直接融資比重的相關(guān)政策建議�？傊�,通過融資結(jié)構(gòu)變化對流動性和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響研究表明,直接融資成為未來經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的主動力是大勢所趨,雖然間接融資對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的作用減弱,但在當(dāng)下仍然是非常重要的融資方式。發(fā)展直接融資,改善融資環(huán)境,豐富資本市場層次,創(chuàng)新直接融資工具,加強(qiáng)法律法規(guī)治理,對我國的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長及優(yōu)化融資結(jié)構(gòu)意義重大。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China has gradually promoted the reform of the economic system, and the capital market has made considerable progress with the support of all parties. Indirect financing through the banking system had an advantage before 2005, but after 2005, with the continuous optimization of economic transformation and upgrading, financial policies were obtained through direct financing channels in the stock market and the bond market. The strong support of laws and regulations has achieved rapid development. At the same time, the scale of social financing is expanding day by day, and the economic operation is steadily continuing. However, the proportion of RMB loans has declined, and the direct financing proportion of such channels as bank off-balance sheet financing, private lending, corporate bonds, etc., has gradually increased. This situation fully shows that the current social financing structure has changed. Based on the theory of financial structure, this paper analyzes the performance and influence of the change of financing structure. In the analysis of the current liquidity situation, we use HP filter method, Marshall K value method and liquidity gap method to obtain the conclusion that the total liquidity surplus is reasonable and controllable, and the essence of the problem of "money shortage" is explained. As to the influence of the change of financing structure on economic growth, according to the econometrics research method, the paper innovatively uses direct and indirect financing in the scale of social financing as independent variables when designing econometric models. To observe the relationship between GDP and dependent variables, analyze the effect of different financing methods on GDP, and draw the conclusion that direct financing plays an active role in promoting economic growth in the future. What is different from other papers is the linkage analysis of financing structure, liquidity and economic growth, which reveals the intertwined and closely related essence between them. Finally, according to the research results and the current situation, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions to optimize the financing structure and expand the proportion of direct financing. In a word, the research on the influence of the change of financing structure on liquidity and economic growth shows that direct financing is the main driving force of economic growth in the future, although indirect financing plays a weaker role in economic growth. But it's still a very important way to raise money right now. Developing direct financing, improving financing environment, enriching the level of capital market, innovating direct financing tools and strengthening the governance of laws and regulations are of great significance to the economic growth and the optimization of financing structure of our country.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F124

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