本文選題：人民幣匯率 + 中美經濟關系��； 參考：《外交學院》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：日本最先在國際上提出人民幣升值的要求，并主張對中國施壓。隨著中國經濟的發(fā)展，帶動日本經濟的復蘇，日本對人民幣匯率問題的態(tài)度發(fā)生變化。中國成為美國貿易逆差最大來源國以來，國際收支順差和外匯儲備不斷增加。然而美國卻受到新經濟泡沫破滅的沖擊，經濟形勢嚴峻，最大貿易逆差來源的中國成為美國經濟衰退的替罪羊。隨著中美之間的貿易逆差不斷擴大，中國外匯儲備不斷增加，人民幣匯率問題逐步成為影響中美關系的重要問題。 本文將簡要闡述人民幣匯率改革歷程，并對幾種人民幣匯率的觀點進行分析，并提出自己的觀點——人民幣匯率的管理應該遵循“以一攬子貨幣為基礎，有管理的浮動”的匯率機制，從本國國情和經濟發(fā)展實際情況出發(fā)，有管理有調節(jié)的進行升值。從日元升值案例的分析得出啟示，，提出人民幣升值的方向和改革建議。同時，本文認為解決中美人民幣匯率爭端需要雙方共同努力，通過中美戰(zhàn)略經濟對話這樣雙方各級別的高層官方接觸渠道，在匯率政策方面加強磋商與合作是處理人民幣匯率問題的有效渠道。 整篇論文分為四部分：第一章是闡述匯率制度及人民幣匯率改革歷程；第二章闡述人民幣匯率爭端的演變過程。第三章闡述幾種對人民幣匯率的未來的發(fā)展趨勢觀點，并分別闡述其對中美經濟及世界經濟的影響。第四章闡述人民幣匯率問題對中美關系的影響，并預測人民幣匯率問題未來發(fā)展趨勢。第五章闡明筆者的觀點并對其他幾種觀點進行評析，在分析對比的基礎上論證筆者觀點，并在此論述人民幣改革的發(fā)展方向。
[Abstract]:Japan was the first to demand an appreciation of the yuan internationally and advocate pressure on China. With the development of China's economy and the recovery of Japan's economy, Japan's attitude toward the RMB exchange rate has changed. Since China became the largest source of the U.S. trade deficit, the balance of payments surplus and foreign exchange reserves have been increasing. However, the United States was hit by the bursting of the new economic bubble, the economic situation is grim, and China, the largest source of trade deficit, has become the scapegoat for the U.S. recession. As the trade deficit between China and the United States continues to expand and China's foreign exchange reserves continue to increase, the issue of the RMB exchange rate has gradually become an important issue affecting Sino-US relations. This paper briefly expounds the course of RMB exchange rate reform, analyzes several viewpoints of RMB exchange rate, and puts forward its own viewpoint that the management of RMB exchange rate should be based on a basket of currencies. A managed floating exchange rate mechanism, based on the actual situation of national conditions and economic development, has a managed and regulated appreciation. From the analysis of the case of yen appreciation, the paper puts forward the direction of RMB appreciation and reform suggestions. At the same time, this paper believes that the settlement of the RMB exchange rate dispute between China and the United States requires the joint efforts of both sides, through the China-US Strategic Economic Dialogue, which is a high-level official channel of contact between the two sides at all levels. Strengthening consultation and cooperation in exchange rate policy is an effective channel to deal with RMB exchange rate problem. The whole thesis is divided into four parts: the first chapter is about the exchange rate system and the course of RMB exchange rate reform, the second chapter is the evolution process of RMB exchange rate dispute. The third chapter expounds several views on the future development trend of RMB exchange rate and its impact on the economy of China and the United States as well as on the world economy. The fourth chapter expounds the impact of RMB exchange rate on Sino-US relations, and forecasts the future development trend of RMB exchange rate. The fifth chapter clarifies the author's viewpoint and comments on several other viewpoints, and proves the author's point of view on the basis of analysis and contrast, and discusses the developing direction of RMB reform.
【學位授予單位】：外交學院
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.6;F125.5

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本文編號：2083448