本文選題：區(qū)域間鐵路貨運(yùn)量 + 貿(mào)易引力模型��； 參考：《山東大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：收入分配差異問題一直是經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)研究中的一個(gè)重要方向,收入差異過大不僅關(guān)系著我國的社會安定與團(tuán)結(jié),也關(guān)系著我國國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的持續(xù)健康穩(wěn)健發(fā)展。本文采用泰爾指數(shù)來衡量我國各區(qū)域的收入差異。從1985年到2011年我國東中西部的泰爾指數(shù)一直呈現(xiàn)出上升的趨勢,從-0.07到0.11。越來越大的區(qū)域收入差異,給我國社會的穩(wěn)定以及經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展埋下了巨大的隱患。2008年金融危機(jī)以后,我國乃至世界上很多國家都沒有從經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的陰影中恢復(fù)過來。我國對外貿(mào)易依存度由2007年的0.63降到了2011年的0.50。對外貿(mào)易的不景氣,使得我國很多企業(yè)開始將目光投向國內(nèi)市場,積極開拓國內(nèi)市場。根據(jù)貿(mào)易引力模型估計(jì)的我國1985-2011年25省的省際貿(mào)易流量絕對值都呈現(xiàn)出上升的態(tài)勢,但是各省的省際貿(mào)易強(qiáng)度都不同程度的經(jīng)歷了衰減的過程,并且雖有反彈,但總體呈衰弱趨勢。這表明,在我國財(cái)政分權(quán)體制下,各地區(qū)之間仍存在著較高的貿(mào)易壁壘,各地區(qū)政府的地方保護(hù)主義不利于我國國內(nèi)市場的一體化。 隨著我國國內(nèi)貿(mào)易的發(fā)展,國內(nèi)各區(qū)域間貿(mào)易已成為一個(gè)不可忽視的問題,但是目前還沒有文獻(xiàn)研究區(qū)域間貿(mào)易對區(qū)域收入差異的影響。本文在前人研究收入差異的影響因素的基礎(chǔ)上,創(chuàng)新性地對區(qū)域間貿(mào)易與區(qū)域收入差異之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了研究。 本文首先回顧了區(qū)域貿(mào)易以及收入差異的相關(guān)理論,并且對我國國內(nèi)貿(mào)易格局分別用鐵路貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)、國內(nèi)貿(mào)易凈出省額數(shù)據(jù)以及利用貿(mào)易引力模型估計(jì)出來的省際貿(mào)易強(qiáng)度等三種方法進(jìn)行了分析,結(jié)果顯示我國各地區(qū)均存在“本土偏愛”現(xiàn)象,并且我國的各區(qū)域間的貿(mào)易存在著很大的差別,中西部地區(qū)主要處于逆差狀態(tài),東部地區(qū)只有少數(shù)省份處于順差狀態(tài)。 此外,本文利用廣義最小二乘法(FGLS)對我國東中西部地區(qū)1985-2011年的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明,區(qū)域間貿(mào)易對于我國區(qū)域收入差異存在著顯著的正相關(guān)關(guān)系,此外,對外貿(mào)易以及城鎮(zhèn)化水平均對區(qū)域收入差異存在著顯著的正相關(guān),而經(jīng)濟(jì)增長則可以縮小區(qū)域收入差異。最后本文根據(jù)實(shí)證結(jié)果對我國統(tǒng)籌區(qū)域發(fā)展給出了自己的看法與建議。
[Abstract]:The problem of income distribution difference has always been an important direction in economic research. The excessive income difference is not only related to the social stability and unity of our country, but also related to the sustained, healthy and steady development of our national economy. This paper uses the Thiel index to measure the income difference among different regions in China. From 1985 to 2011, the Terre Index of China's east, west and west has been showing an upward trend, from -0.07 to 0.11. The growing regional income gap has brought great hidden dangers to the social stability and economic development of our country. After the financial crisis of 2008, many countries in China and the world have not recovered from the shadow of economic recession. China's foreign trade dependence dropped from 0.63 in 2007 to 0.50 in 2011. Because of the recession of foreign trade, many enterprises in our country begin to look to the domestic market and actively develop the domestic market. According to the trade gravity model, the absolute value of inter-provincial trade flows of 25 provinces in China from 1985 to 2011 showed an upward trend, but the inter-provincial trade intensity of each province experienced a process of attenuation in varying degrees, and although there was a rebound, But the overall trend is weak. This shows that there are still high trade barriers between different regions under the fiscal decentralization system in China, and the local protectionism of the regional governments is not conducive to the integration of our domestic market. With the development of China's domestic trade, domestic inter-regional trade has become a problem that can not be ignored, but there is no literature to study the impact of interregional trade on regional income difference. On the basis of the previous researches on the influencing factors of income difference, this paper studies the relationship between interregional trade and regional income difference innovatively. Firstly, this paper reviews the relevant theories of regional trade and income difference, and applies railway trade data to the domestic trade pattern of China. The data of net savings in domestic trade and the intensity of inter-provincial trade estimated by the trade gravity model are analyzed. The results show that there is a phenomenon of "local preference" in all regions of China. Moreover, there are great differences in the trade between different regions of China. The central and western regions are mainly in the state of deficit, and only a few provinces in the east are in surplus. In addition, this paper uses the generalized least square method (FGLS) to analyze the economic data from 1985 to 2011 in the east, west and west of China. The empirical results show that there is a significant positive correlation between interregional trade and regional income differences in China, in addition, the level of foreign trade and urbanization have significant positive correlation with regional income differences. And economic growth can narrow regional income gap. Finally, according to the empirical results, the author gives his own views and suggestions on the overall regional development in China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F727;F124.7

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