本文選題：廣西對外出口貿(mào)易 + 經(jīng)濟增長��； 參考：《廣西師范大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟一體化和全球化的發(fā)展,對外貿(mào)易日益受到人們的關(guān)注,對外貿(mào)易能否促進經(jīng)濟的增長越來越成為經(jīng)濟學(xué)家關(guān)注的焦點。特別是經(jīng)濟落后地區(qū),借助對外出口貿(mào)易的發(fā)展可以較快實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展。廣西位于祖國南陲,經(jīng)濟發(fā)展相對比較落后,但廣西擁有良好的區(qū)位優(yōu)勢和較為豐富的資源物產(chǎn),特別是2002年中國--東盟自由貿(mào)易區(qū)以及2008年廣西北部灣經(jīng)濟區(qū)成立之后,廣西經(jīng)濟取得了較快的發(fā)展。那么,在廣西經(jīng)濟發(fā)展過程中,對外出口貿(mào)易起到了什么樣的作用?出口貿(mào)易與經(jīng)濟增長之間是否存在著因果關(guān)系?把這些問題搞清楚,對保持廣西經(jīng)濟的平穩(wěn)健康發(fā)展,具有較強的實踐指導(dǎo)意義。 論文主要借助統(tǒng)計學(xué)中的非參數(shù)檢驗、時間序列分析等方法,并結(jié)合向量自回歸模型,對廣西對外出口貿(mào)易對經(jīng)濟增長的影響進行了較為全面的分析。論文首先介紹廣西出口貿(mào)易的歷史,分析廣西出口貿(mào)易的現(xiàn)狀,然后利用兩相關(guān)樣本對廣西與全國出口依存度、出口貿(mào)易對經(jīng)濟增長的貢獻率、出口拉動經(jīng)濟增長的百分點等問題進行檢驗和差異分析,同時利用向量自回歸模型對出口、進口、全社會固定資產(chǎn)投資對GDP的影響進行實證分析。 分析結(jié)果表明,廣西出口依存度顯著低于全國出口依存度；廣西出口貿(mào)易對經(jīng)濟增長的貢獻率與全國出口貿(mào)易對經(jīng)濟增長的貢獻率無顯著差異；廣西出口拉動經(jīng)濟增長的百分點顯著低于全國出口拉動經(jīng)濟增長的百分點；進口貿(mào)易對經(jīng)濟增長的拉動作用小于出口貿(mào)易對經(jīng)濟增長的拉動作用;廣西出口貿(mào)易和經(jīng)濟增長之間不存在格蘭杰因果關(guān)系；廣西出口貿(mào)易對經(jīng)濟增長的影響是正向且是長期的等。 針對上述結(jié)果,并結(jié)合我國的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展形勢,論文給出了如下幾點建議：優(yōu)化出口結(jié)構(gòu)；實行出口市場多元化戰(zhàn)略；擴大出口規(guī)模等。
[Abstract]:With the development of economic integration and globalization, people pay more and more attention to foreign trade. Especially in economically backward areas, economic development can be achieved quickly with the aid of the development of foreign export trade. Guangxi is located in the southern border of the motherland, and its economic development is relatively backward. However, Guangxi has a good location advantage and abundant resources, especially after the establishment of the China-ASEAN Free Trade area in 2002 and the establishment of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone in 2008. Guangxi has made rapid economic development. So, in the process of Guangxi's economic development, what role has foreign export trade played? Is there a causal relationship between export trade and economic growth? To make these problems clear is of great practical significance to maintain the steady and healthy development of Guangxi's economy. With the help of non-parametric test, time series analysis and vector autoregressive model, this paper makes a comprehensive analysis of the influence of Guangxi's foreign export trade on economic growth. The paper first introduces the history of Guangxi's export trade, analyzes the present situation of Guangxi's export trade, and then uses two relevant samples to analyze the degree of export dependence between Guangxi and the whole country, and the contribution rate of export trade to economic growth. At the same time, we use the vector autoregressive model to analyze the effect of export, import and the whole society fixed asset investment on GDP. The results show that the degree of export dependence of Guangxi is significantly lower than that of the whole country, and there is no significant difference between the contribution rate of Guangxi export trade to economic growth and the contribution rate of national export trade to economic growth. Guangxi's export-led economic growth is significantly lower than that of the whole country's export-led economic growth, while import trade has less pulling effect on economic growth than export trade on economic growth. There is no Granger causality between Guangxi's export trade and economic growth, and the impact of Guangxi's export trade on economic growth is positive and long-term. In view of the above results and combined with the economic development situation of our country, the paper gives the following suggestions: optimizing the export structure, carrying out the export market diversification strategy, expanding the export scale and so on.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣西師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F127;F752.62

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