本文選題：中美經(jīng)濟 + 脫鉤��； 參考：《現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟探討》2017年06期

【摘要】：結(jié)合中美兩國1992q2-2015q1季度GDP(SA)數(shù)據(jù),應(yīng)用DCC-GARCH和VAR方法實證考察中美經(jīng)濟脫鉤問題。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),中美經(jīng)濟并沒有脫鉤,而是處于全球生產(chǎn)分工網(wǎng)絡(luò)價值鏈的不同階段;美國經(jīng)濟波動對中美經(jīng)濟周期聯(lián)動性的影響要顯著大于中國,美國經(jīng)濟仍是中美經(jīng)濟關(guān)系主導(dǎo);理論上,中美經(jīng)濟周期關(guān)聯(lián)性傳導(dǎo)渠道可能有三種:一是國際貿(mào)易渠道通過直接效應(yīng)與滯后效應(yīng)從正反兩個方向產(chǎn)生作用,二是國際金融資本市場因其充分的流動性成為中美經(jīng)濟周期聯(lián)動性的重要載體,三是全球產(chǎn)業(yè)分工渠道通過產(chǎn)業(yè)梯度與反梯度轉(zhuǎn)移、離岸外包與逆向外包產(chǎn)生周期關(guān)聯(lián)。本文試圖對當下脫鉤問題進行一定程度的拓展和深化,并以詳實的數(shù)據(jù)有力的駁斥了"中國是國際經(jīng)濟波動之源頭"的論調(diào)。
[Abstract]:Based on the 1992q2-2015q1 quarterly 1992q2-2015q1 data of China and the United States, this paper applies DCC-GARCH and VAR methods to examine the economic decoupling between China and the United States. The study found that the Chinese and American economies are not decoupled, but are at different stages of the global division of labor network value chain, and that the impact of US economic fluctuations on the Sino-American business cycle linkage is significantly greater than that of China. In theory, there may be three transmission channels of Sino-US business cycle relevance: one is that international trade channels produce effects from both positive and negative directions through direct effect and lag effect. The second is that the international financial capital market has become an important carrier of the Sino-American business cycle because of its sufficient liquidity. The third is that the global industrial division channels transfer through the industrial gradient and the reverse gradient, and the offshoring and reverse outsourcing produce cycle. This paper attempts to expand and deepen the current decoupling problem to a certain extent, and refutes the argument that "China is the source of international economic fluctuation" with detailed data.
【作者單位】： 安徽財貿(mào)職業(yè)學(xué)院大位會計學(xué)院;南京大學(xué)經(jīng)濟學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家社會科學(xué)基金一般項目“中國生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展的戰(zhàn)略轉(zhuǎn)變和機制設(shè)計研究”(項目編號:15BJY023) 教育部社會科學(xué)研究重大課題攻關(guān)項目“TPP外部約束下我國融入國際價值鏈分工戰(zhàn)略研究”(項目編號:16JZD019) 安徽省職業(yè)與成人教育學(xué)會課題“經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整與職業(yè)教育改革創(chuàng)新研究”(項目編號:CCB15002)
【分類號】：F124;F171.2

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