本文選題：居民消費需求 + 稅收政策��； 參考：《山東大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：我國在《國民經(jīng)濟和社會發(fā)展第十二個五年規(guī)劃綱要》以及十八大報告中都指出,要牢牢把握擴大內(nèi)需這一戰(zhàn)略基點,加快建立擴大消費需求長效機制,釋放居民消費潛力。因此,擴大內(nèi)需、促進消費將是未來一段時間內(nèi)我國實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟平穩(wěn)增長的重要利器。稅收政策在資源配置、收入分配、穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟方面具有重要作用,而其政策調(diào)控作用在促進需求、提高消費能力等方面尤為顯著。合理的稅收負擔和稅收制度可以增強居民消費能力和消費意愿,穩(wěn)定消費預期,優(yōu)化消費環(huán)境。各種稅收政策之間的相互配合,還可以突出消費重點和熱點,促進消費市場結(jié)構(gòu)理性和健康發(fā)展。因此,研究和探討稅收政策對我國居民消費需求的影響,并對已有的稅收政策在擴大消費需求方面所發(fā)揮的政策效果進行檢驗,對于制定更加合理和完善的稅制結(jié)構(gòu)、最大程度發(fā)揮對居民消費需求的促進作用是十分必要的。 本文首先在搜集資料和閱讀經(jīng)典文獻的基礎(chǔ)上對稅收促進居民消費的國內(nèi)外研究進行梳理和回顧,分三個階段介紹了西方消費需求理論的發(fā)展。在此基礎(chǔ)上,從消費能力、消費意愿、以及消費預期和消費環(huán)境三個方面對稅收政策影響消費的作用機制進行了規(guī)范分析,并對流轉(zhuǎn)稅、所得稅和財產(chǎn)稅對居民消費的差異化影響做出全面闡述,為后面的分析研究做出鋪墊。其次,對1994年以后的稅收政策進行回顧梳理以及簡單評述,并運用數(shù)據(jù)和圖表對當前我國稅制結(jié)構(gòu)和消費現(xiàn)狀進行描述性分析,找出消費不足的原因以及當前稅收政策存在的困境。再次,利用狀態(tài)空間形式的可變參數(shù)模型,選取我國1994—2012年各項稅收收入數(shù)據(jù)以及城鎮(zhèn)居民的消費支出數(shù)據(jù),同時引入居民可支配收入和消費習慣這兩個對居民消費需求有重要影響的變量,分析我國的稅收政策在稅收總量和稅收結(jié)構(gòu)兩個方面對城鄉(xiāng)居民消費需求的動態(tài)影響,得到動態(tài)影響效果圖,并對實證結(jié)果進行分析說明。最后,根據(jù)本文前面所做的理論分析和實證分析,有針對性地提出建立擴大消費需求長效機制,擴大城鄉(xiāng)居民消費需求的稅收政策建議,如優(yōu)化稅收制度與政策,推進增值稅擴圍和房產(chǎn)稅改革,完善稅收制度和突出稅收激勵重點,并著重增強農(nóng)民的消費能力。
[Abstract]:In the outline of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the report of the 18th National Congress of China, China has pointed out that it is necessary to firmly grasp the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand, speed up the establishment of a long-term mechanism for expanding consumption demand, and release the consumption potential of residents. Therefore, expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption will be an important weapon to achieve steady economic growth in the future. Tax policy plays an important role in resource allocation, income distribution and economic stability, while its policy regulation plays a significant role in promoting demand and improving consumption ability. Reasonable tax burden and tax system can enhance residents' consumption ability and willingness, stabilize consumption expectation and optimize consumption environment. The cooperation of various tax policies can also highlight the key points and hot spots of consumption and promote the rational and healthy development of the consumption market structure. Therefore, to study and explore the impact of tax policy on the consumption demand of Chinese residents, and to test the effect of the existing tax policy on expanding consumption demand, to establish a more reasonable and perfect tax system structure. It is necessary to maximize the role of promoting consumer demand. On the basis of collecting data and reading classical literature, this paper reviews the domestic and foreign research on tax promotion of residents' consumption, and introduces the development of western consumption demand theory in three stages. On this basis, from the consumption ability, the consumption will, as well as the consumption expectation and the consumption environment three aspects has carried on the standard analysis to the tax policy influence consumption mechanism, and has carried on the norm analysis to the turnover tax, Income tax and property tax have a comprehensive impact on residents' consumption differentiation, and pave the way for the following analysis and research. Secondly, it reviews and reviews the tax policy after 1994, and makes a descriptive analysis of the current tax structure and consumption situation of our country by using data and charts. Find out the reason of insufficient consumption and the predicament of current tax policy. Thirdly, by using the variable parameter model in the form of state space, the data of tax revenue and the consumption expenditure of urban residents in China from 1994 to 2012 are selected. At the same time, this paper introduces two variables, disposable income and consumption habits, which have an important impact on the consumption demand of the residents, and analyzes the dynamic influence of the tax policy on the consumption demand of urban and rural residents in the two aspects of the total tax revenue and the tax structure. The dynamic effect diagram is obtained, and the empirical results are analyzed. Finally, according to the previous theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, the paper puts forward some suggestions of tax policy, such as optimizing the tax system and policy, to establish a long-term mechanism to expand consumption demand and expand the consumption demand of urban and rural residents. We will promote the reform of value-added tax and property tax, improve the tax system, highlight the key points of tax incentives, and focus on enhancing farmers' ability to consume.
【學位授予單位】：山東大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F812.42;F126.1

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本文編號：1936363