本文選題：消費(fèi)升級 + 產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級　； 參考：《南京財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：后金融危機(jī)時代,全球經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)疲軟,多個歐洲國家主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)頻頻爆發(fā),世界性貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義愈演愈烈,人口紅利以及優(yōu)先發(fā)展出口、以外需帶動經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的政策作用逐漸弱化,這一切都預(yù)示著今后我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長方式必然由外向型向內(nèi)向型轉(zhuǎn)變,國內(nèi)消費(fèi)勢必主導(dǎo)我國未來經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長。在這種特殊的時代背景下,國家“十二五”規(guī)劃明確提出,促進(jìn)居民消費(fèi)升級,加快產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整。消費(fèi)升級和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整間存在很強(qiáng)的關(guān)聯(lián)性。在供給主導(dǎo)的經(jīng)濟(jì)中,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)展水平?jīng)Q定了消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)狀況；在需求主導(dǎo)的經(jīng)濟(jì)中,消費(fèi)升級決定了產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的升級。從生產(chǎn)-交換-消費(fèi)的角度看,消費(fèi)才是生產(chǎn)的最終目的,消費(fèi)反作用于生產(chǎn),決定了產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整。那么如何以消費(fèi)升級引導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整,對構(gòu)建消費(fèi)驅(qū)動經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的國家,具有重要的理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。為此,本文通過文獻(xiàn)分析和比較分析,綜合消費(fèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)、產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)、生態(tài)學(xué)、高級宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)和計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)等理論與方法,對消費(fèi)升級理論、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級理論進(jìn)行了綜述,并分析了居民消費(fèi)升級對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級的影響機(jī)制；通過引入多部門產(chǎn)業(yè)增長模型,構(gòu)建了居民消費(fèi)升級的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)水平效應(yīng)方程和結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)方程；通過對消費(fèi)升級的水平效應(yīng)和結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析得出：城鄉(xiāng)居民消費(fèi)的水平效應(yīng)和結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)有顯著差異,農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)的水平效應(yīng)較顯著,城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)的結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)較顯著；在八大類消費(fèi)中,城鎮(zhèn)教育文化娛樂、交通通信的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)大于其他類消費(fèi)品的效應(yīng),農(nóng)村的交通通信、居住的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)大于其他類消費(fèi)品的效應(yīng)。因而,本文認(rèn)為：應(yīng)該提高消費(fèi)意愿和消費(fèi)能力,優(yōu)化消費(fèi)環(huán)境,擴(kuò)大居民消費(fèi)需求；加大第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展,結(jié)合消費(fèi)升級的方向調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級；協(xié)同消費(fèi)政策和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整政策,實(shí)現(xiàn)消費(fèi)升級和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級的良性互動。
[Abstract]:In the post-financial crisis era, the global economy continued to weaken, the sovereign debt crisis of many European countries broke out frequently, the world trade protectionism intensified, the demographic dividend and the priority to develop exports. The policy function of promoting economic growth by external demand gradually weakens, all of which indicate that the mode of economic growth in our country will inevitably change from extroverted to introverted in the future, and domestic consumption will certainly dominate the future economic growth of our country. In this special background of the times, the state's 12th Five-Year Plan clearly proposes to promote the upgrading of residents' consumption and to speed up the adjustment of industrial structure. There is a strong correlation between consumption upgrading and industrial structure adjustment. In the supply-led economy, the development level of industrial structure determines the situation of consumption structure, and in the demand-led economy, consumption upgrading determines the upgrading of industrial structure. From the point of view of production-exchange-consumption, consumption is the ultimate goal of production. Consumption reacts on production and determines the adjustment of industrial structure. So how to guide the adjustment of industrial structure by consumption upgrading is of great theoretical and practical significance to the construction of a consumption-driven country. Therefore, through literature analysis and comparative analysis, this paper synthesizes the theories and methods of consumption economy, industrial economy, ecology, advanced macroeconomics and econometrics, and summarizes the theories of consumption upgrading and industrial structure upgrading. By introducing the multi-sector industrial growth model, the horizontal effect equation and structural effect equation of industrial structure are established. Through the empirical analysis of the horizontal and structural effects of consumption upgrading, it is concluded that there are significant differences in the horizontal and structural effects of consumption between urban and rural residents, while the horizontal effects of consumption in rural areas are more significant. Among the eight types of consumption, the industrial structure effect of urban education, culture, entertainment, transportation and communication is greater than that of other consumer goods. The effect of residential industrial structure is greater than that of other kinds of consumer goods. Therefore, this paper holds that: we should improve consumption will and consumption ability, optimize the consumption environment, expand the consumption demand of residents, increase the development of the tertiary industry, and adjust the industrial structure upgrading in combination with the direction of consumption upgrading. Coordinate consumption policy and industrial structure adjustment policy, realize the benign interaction of consumption upgrade and industrial structure upgrade.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F121.3;F126.1

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