本文選題：包容性增長(zhǎng) + 包容度　； 參考：《青海民族研究》2017年02期

【摘要】：包容性增長(zhǎng)是新疆在一帶一路的機(jī)遇中突破自身發(fā)展又兼顧邊疆長(zhǎng)治久安的必然選擇。本文運(yùn)用模糊隸屬度綜合評(píng)價(jià)法及綜合評(píng)價(jià)模型從經(jīng)濟(jì)包容度、社會(huì)包容、生態(tài)包容、文化包容四個(gè)方面對(duì)新疆2005-2014年包容性增長(zhǎng)水平進(jìn)行測(cè)度,并運(yùn)用指數(shù)平滑法對(duì)其未來(lái)發(fā)展趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行動(dòng)態(tài)預(yù)測(cè)。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):新疆包容性增長(zhǎng)水平十年聞呈現(xiàn)低幅勻速上升趨勢(shì);2005-2011年新疆包容性增長(zhǎng)水平處于"勉強(qiáng)包容"階段,2012-2014年新疆包容性增長(zhǎng)水平處于"基本包容"階段;從分類包容度指數(shù)走勢(shì)角度分析,社會(huì)的健康發(fā)展是新疆包容性增長(zhǎng)的核心動(dòng)力,生態(tài)環(huán)境惡化是新疆包容性增長(zhǎng)的制約因素;短期內(nèi)新疆包容性增長(zhǎng)水平將保持不斷上升的趨勢(shì),但增速遲緩,表明新疆未來(lái)發(fā)展仍有較大阻力。
[Abstract]:Inclusive growth is an inevitable choice for Xinjiang to break through its own development in the opportunity of Belt and Road and to take into account the long-term stability of the frontier. In this paper, the comprehensive evaluation method of fuzzy membership degree and the comprehensive evaluation model are used to measure the inclusive growth level of Xinjiang in 2005-2014 from four aspects: economic inclusion, social inclusion, ecological inclusion and cultural inclusion. The exponential smoothing method is used to predict the future development trend. It is found that the inclusive growth level of Xinjiang in 2005-2011 is in the stage of "barely inclusive" and the inclusive growth level of Xinjiang from 2012-2014 to 2012-2014 is in the "basic inclusive" stage. From the angle of the trend of classification tolerance index, the healthy development of society is the core motive force of inclusive growth in Xinjiang, and the deterioration of ecological environment is the restrictive factor of inclusive growth in Xinjiang. Inclusive growth in Xinjiang will remain on the upward trend in the short term, but growth is slow, suggesting greater resistance to future development in Xinjiang.
【作者單位】： 石河子大學(xué);
【基金】：國(guó)家社科基金一般項(xiàng)目《基于包容性增長(zhǎng)的新疆南疆三地州居民幸福感提升研究》(批準(zhǔn)號(hào):14BJY204)階段性研究成果
【分類號(hào)】：F127

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本文編號(hào)：1899583