發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-05-13 18:24

  本文選題：中部地區(qū) + 產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)演進(jìn)�。� 參考：《南昌大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)演進(jìn)與新型城鎮(zhèn)化是當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè)的主題。研究?jī)烧叩陌l(fā)展特征及兩者之間的相互關(guān)系對(duì)于正確把握新常態(tài)下我國(guó)區(qū)域結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整,清醒認(rèn)識(shí)區(qū)域內(nèi)部存在的結(jié)構(gòu)性矛盾,進(jìn)而謀劃新時(shí)期區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略,培育增強(qiáng)經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)的內(nèi)生活力和持久動(dòng)力都具有重要意義。現(xiàn)階段,中部地區(qū)新型城鎮(zhèn)化水平與全國(guó)平均水平還有一定的差距,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)也存在結(jié)構(gòu)性偏差,因此,在新常態(tài)下厘清兩者互動(dòng)機(jī)制,推動(dòng)兩者互動(dòng)發(fā)展至關(guān)重要。本文首先通過(guò)文獻(xiàn)回顧,梳理了產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)演進(jìn)與新型城鎮(zhèn)化的內(nèi)涵,構(gòu)建了兩者指標(biāo)體系,進(jìn)而對(duì)兩者的互動(dòng)機(jī)理進(jìn)行了理論分析,并建立了兩者互動(dòng)框架。其次,選擇中部地區(qū)為研究對(duì)象,綜合運(yùn)用熵權(quán)法和加權(quán)匯總的方法對(duì)兩者發(fā)展水平分別進(jìn)行了測(cè)度。再次,梳理了兩者互動(dòng)的內(nèi)涵與表征,并運(yùn)用耦合協(xié)調(diào)度模型對(duì)兩者互動(dòng)狀態(tài)進(jìn)行了測(cè)度與分析。最后通過(guò)相關(guān)性分析、平穩(wěn)性檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整分析、Granger因果檢驗(yàn)等計(jì)量方法對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)演進(jìn)與新型城鎮(zhèn)化的互動(dòng)關(guān)系進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析。分析結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn):(1)現(xiàn)階段,兩者互動(dòng)發(fā)展協(xié)調(diào)性不夠,缺乏一定的持續(xù)互動(dòng)發(fā)展能力;(2)新型城鎮(zhèn)化滯后于產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)演進(jìn);(3)第一產(chǎn)業(yè)在很大程度上阻礙了新型城鎮(zhèn)化的進(jìn)程,第二產(chǎn)業(yè)是目前新型城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展的主要?jiǎng)恿?第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展不足未能有效促進(jìn)新型城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展;(4)新型城鎮(zhèn)化指數(shù)與產(chǎn)值結(jié)構(gòu)指數(shù)、就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)指數(shù)之間存在協(xié)整關(guān)系;(5)新型城鎮(zhèn)化指數(shù)是產(chǎn)值結(jié)構(gòu)指數(shù)、就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)指數(shù)的Granger原因,但反向不具有這種關(guān)系,產(chǎn)值結(jié)構(gòu)指數(shù)與就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)指數(shù)互為Granger原因。進(jìn)一步分析認(rèn)為導(dǎo)致這些問(wèn)題的主要原因有三點(diǎn):(1)中部地區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)人口眾多,存在先天制約;(2)產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展不合理,第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展不足,勞動(dòng)人口未能合理轉(zhuǎn)移;(3)城鎮(zhèn)功能不完善,未能發(fā)揮產(chǎn)業(yè)集聚的規(guī)模效應(yīng)。據(jù)此,本文從推進(jìn)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新、促進(jìn)要素流動(dòng)、完善城鎮(zhèn)功能和提供政策保障四方面提出了相應(yīng)的政策建議,以期促進(jìn)中部地區(qū)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)演進(jìn)與新型城鎮(zhèn)化良性互動(dòng),共同發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:The evolution of industrial structure and new urbanization are the theme of current economic construction. The study of the development characteristics of the two and the relationship between them are helpful to grasp correctly the adjustment of regional structure in China under the new normal, to soberly understand the structural contradictions existing within the region, and then to plan the development strategy of regional economy in the new period. It is of great significance to cultivate endogenous vitality and lasting power to enhance sustained economic growth. At present, there is still a certain gap between the new urbanization level and the national average level in the central region, and the industrial structure also has structural deviation. Therefore, it is very important to clarify the interaction mechanism between the two in the new normal state and promote their interactive development. This paper firstly combs the connotation of industrial structure evolution and new urbanization through literature review, constructs the index system of both, and then makes a theoretical analysis of the interaction mechanism of the two, and establishes the interactive framework between the two. Secondly, the central region is chosen as the research object, and the development level of the two regions is measured by the entropy weight method and the weighted summary method. Thirdly, the connotation and representation of the interaction are combed, and the interaction state is measured and analyzed by using the coupling coordination degree model. Finally, by means of correlation analysis, stability test, cointegration analysis and Granger causality test, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the interactive relationship between industrial structure evolution and new urbanization. The results show that at the present stage, the interaction between the two is not coordinated enough, and they lack the ability to develop continuously. (2) the new type of urbanization lags behind the evolution of industrial structure and the first industry largely hinders the process of new type urbanization. The secondary industry is the main driving force for the development of the new type of urbanization at present. The lack of development of the tertiary industry has failed to effectively promote the development of the new type of urbanization. (4) the new type of urbanization index and the output value structure index. The new type of urbanization index is the Granger cause of output value structure index and employment structure index, but there is no such relationship in reverse. The output value structure index and employment structure index are mutual Granger reasons. Further analysis shows that the main reasons leading to these problems are three points: 1) the central region has a large agricultural population, there are congenital constraints on the development of the industry, the development of the tertiary industry is insufficient, and the working population fails to reasonably transfer the functions of the cities and towns. Fail to exert the scale effect of industrial agglomeration. Accordingly, this paper puts forward the corresponding policy suggestions from four aspects of promoting technological innovation, promoting the flow of elements, perfecting the functions of cities and towns and providing policy guarantee, in order to promote the evolution of industrial structure in the central region and the benign interaction between the new type of urbanization and the development of the industrial structure in the central region.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南昌大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F127;F299.27

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