本文選題：碳生產(chǎn)率 + 脫鉤分析　； 參考：《湖南大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：未來國際間的競爭將是碳生產(chǎn)率的競爭，節(jié)能減排成為重要生產(chǎn)力，將提高能效和碳生產(chǎn)率作為促進經(jīng)濟增長的重點，對推動我國經(jīng)濟低碳化漸進轉(zhuǎn)型和實現(xiàn)相對減排具有重要意義。本文首先基于投入產(chǎn)出模型對中國三大產(chǎn)業(yè)各細分行業(yè)2002-2012年的完全碳排放量及碳生產(chǎn)率進行測算和分析；然后通過脫鉤分析和收斂性檢驗，從動態(tài)上探討各行業(yè)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展和能耗排放間的關系；最后利用因素分解法分析碳生產(chǎn)率的影響因素，并進一步構(gòu)建STIRPAT計量模型進行實證分析，，從而量化各影響因素的作用效應。 結(jié)果表明：（1）我國總體及各行業(yè)碳排放量在2002-2012年間呈上升趨勢，工業(yè)仍是未來的減排主力。碳生產(chǎn)率總體水平不斷提高，隨經(jīng)濟形勢、政府調(diào)控的變化而波動，第三產(chǎn)業(yè)各行業(yè)總體來說擁有更高的碳生產(chǎn)率水平；（2）行業(yè)脫鉤指數(shù)基本呈現(xiàn)出弱脫鉤—增長連結(jié)交替出現(xiàn)的發(fā)展特征，第三產(chǎn)業(yè)各行業(yè)脫鉤水平總體優(yōu)于其他行業(yè)。未來我國各行業(yè)仍將保持一段時間的弱脫鉤發(fā)展態(tài)勢，即碳生產(chǎn)率將保持持續(xù)增長；（3）收斂性檢驗結(jié)果表明我國行業(yè)整體和低效率行業(yè)間存在絕對收斂，高效率行業(yè)間則不存在。但從整體發(fā)展趨勢上看，行業(yè)碳生產(chǎn)率水平表現(xiàn)為趨同，碳生產(chǎn)率指數(shù)最終將成為一個標準化的指標；（4）碳生產(chǎn)率影響因素分解結(jié)果顯示，經(jīng)濟效率、能源系統(tǒng)效率因素對碳生產(chǎn)率的提高產(chǎn)生正向作用，能源結(jié)構(gòu)因素的貢獻效應則存在一定波動，總體上產(chǎn)生負面抑制影響；（5）STIRPAT模型估計結(jié)果表明，就業(yè)人數(shù)增長、人均財富增加、技術進步以及產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)演進與碳生產(chǎn)率提高正相關，而現(xiàn)行的能源結(jié)構(gòu)則產(chǎn)生負面影響。產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)因素對碳生產(chǎn)率的作用最大，其次是技術水平和能源結(jié)構(gòu)因素。在經(jīng)濟持續(xù)增長的情況下，優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、改進技術工藝和調(diào)整能源組合是提高碳生產(chǎn)率的重要手段。
[Abstract]:In the future, the international competition will be the competition of carbon productivity, energy saving and emission reduction will become important productivity, the improvement of energy efficiency and carbon productivity will be the key to promote economic growth. It is of great significance to promote the gradual transition of China's economy to low carbonization and to realize relative emission reduction. Based on the input-output model, this paper first measures and analyzes the total carbon emissions and carbon productivity of the three subdivided industries in China from 2002 to 2012, and then through decoupling analysis and convergence test, The relationship between economic development and energy consumption emission in various industries is discussed dynamically. Finally, the factors affecting carbon productivity are analyzed by factor decomposition method, and the STIRPAT econometric model is further constructed to quantify the effect of each influencing factor. The results show that the carbon emissions of China as a whole and its industries are on the rise from 2002 to 2012, and industry is still the main emission reduction in the future. The overall level of carbon productivity continues to improve, fluctuating with the economic situation and changes in government regulation and control, On the whole, the tertiary industry has a higher carbon productivity level. (2) the decoupling index of the tertiary industry shows the development characteristics of weak decoupling and growth linkage alternately, and the decoupling level of the tertiary industry is generally superior to that of other industries. In the future, the development trend of weak decoupling will be maintained for a period of time, that is, carbon productivity will maintain a sustained growth) convergence test results show that there is absolute convergence between China's industry as a whole and inefficient industries, but there is no such convergence among high efficiency industries. But from the overall development trend, the industry carbon productivity level shows convergence, carbon productivity index will eventually become a standardized indicator of carbon productivity factors decomposition results show that economic efficiency, Energy system efficiency factors have a positive effect on carbon productivity, while the contribution of energy structure factors fluctuate to a certain extent. The estimation results of the model show that the employment increases and the per capita wealth increases. Technological progress and the evolution of industrial structure are positively related to the increase of carbon productivity, while the current energy structure has a negative impact. Industrial structure factors play the most important role in carbon productivity, followed by technological level and energy structure. In the case of sustained economic growth, optimizing industrial structure, improving technology and adjusting energy mix are important means to improve carbon productivity.
【學位授予單位】：湖南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F124.5

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