本文選題：閩江流域 + 生態(tài)足跡　； 參考：《福建農(nóng)林大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：伴隨生態(tài)文明建設(shè)的不斷深入,福建省通過加強(qiáng)生態(tài)環(huán)境保護(hù),加快經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展轉(zhuǎn)型全力推進(jìn)生態(tài)省建設(shè)。閩江流域是福建省的重要經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)之一,在我省經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)、環(huán)境的可持續(xù)發(fā)展中有著舉足輕重的地位。閩江流域生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)可持續(xù)發(fā)展對(duì)促進(jìn)我省構(gòu)建生態(tài)文明先行示范區(qū)影響深遠(yuǎn)。 隨著人們對(duì)閩江流域的水資源、土地資源、能源資源等自然資源的不斷開發(fā)利用,閩江流域的生態(tài)環(huán)境遭到不同程度的破壞,經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展面臨的挑戰(zhàn)越發(fā)嚴(yán)峻。因此,對(duì)閩江流域生態(tài)足跡長時(shí)間序列的研究旨在追蹤閩江流域可持續(xù)發(fā)展的動(dòng)態(tài)變化,準(zhǔn)確評(píng)價(jià)閩江流域的生態(tài)狀況。找出閩江流域存在的生態(tài)環(huán)境發(fā)展缺陷,尋找生態(tài)文明建設(shè)發(fā)展對(duì)策。 本研究基于傳統(tǒng)的生態(tài)足跡理論與能值理論相結(jié)合的能值生態(tài)足跡,在傳統(tǒng)的生物資源消費(fèi)賬戶及能源消費(fèi)賬戶的基礎(chǔ)上,加入淡水資源賬戶、污染物消費(fèi)賬戶對(duì)能值生態(tài)足跡進(jìn)行改進(jìn)完善。 基于改進(jìn)的能值生態(tài)足跡模型,計(jì)算動(dòng)態(tài)分析閩江流域1990—2011年的生態(tài)足跡、生態(tài)承載力、生態(tài)赤字。同時(shí),選取萬元GDP生態(tài)足跡、生態(tài)足跡多樣性指數(shù)、人均生態(tài)協(xié)調(diào)系數(shù)、生態(tài)承載缺陷度指標(biāo)、生態(tài)壓力指數(shù)、生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)發(fā)展能力指數(shù)6類指標(biāo)對(duì)閩江流域生態(tài)系統(tǒng)可持續(xù)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r進(jìn)行了動(dòng)態(tài)綜合評(píng)估。并分析閩江流域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)、居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)和人口增長等因素對(duì)生態(tài)足跡的影響,通過脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)、路徑分析、灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析、回歸分析方法逐個(gè)揭示各因素與生態(tài)足跡之間的關(guān)系。采用灰色預(yù)測(cè)理論方法,提出閩江流域生態(tài)足跡的灰色預(yù)測(cè)模型。最后,結(jié)合閩江流域生態(tài)、經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)現(xiàn)狀,為閩江流域?qū)崿F(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展提供相應(yīng)對(duì)策和建議。研究結(jié)果表明： 1.閩江流域1990—2011年生態(tài)足跡總體上呈波動(dòng)上升趨勢(shì)。 2.閩江流域生態(tài)承載力在1990—2011年間處于波動(dòng)變化,生態(tài)承載力峰值出現(xiàn)在2010年,最小值出現(xiàn)在2003年。 3.1990—2011年閩江流域生態(tài)足跡主要構(gòu)成為耕地及水域。耕地生態(tài)足跡平均占比為40.58%,水域生態(tài)足跡平均占比為20.18%,能源用地、淡水資源用地、林地三類占比均在10%—15%之間,牧草地、濕地、建筑用地占比較小,均小于2%。 4.1990—2011年閩江流域均生態(tài)赤字現(xiàn)象,呈現(xiàn)波動(dòng)增長趨勢(shì)。值得注意的是,2011年和2003年總生態(tài)赤字較上年增長快速,增長率分別為89.00%和78.43%。 5.閩江流域22年間的萬元GDP生態(tài)足跡持續(xù)走低,從1990年的33.37hm2/萬元降至2011年的3.09hm2萬元,降幅達(dá)90.74%,該變化趨勢(shì)有利于閩江流域自然生態(tài)與社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)的協(xié)調(diào)、可持續(xù)發(fā)展。 6.閩江流域生態(tài)足跡多樣性整體呈先波動(dòng)式上升后平穩(wěn)變化趨勢(shì)�？梢�,閩江流域?qū)Ω黝愅恋氐拈_發(fā)利用總體向均衡趨勢(shì)發(fā)展。 7.閩江流域的人均生態(tài)協(xié)調(diào)系數(shù)值偏小且整體呈減小趨勢(shì),特別是近幾年其值均小于22年來的平均值。閩江流域人均生態(tài)承載缺陷度呈波動(dòng)上升趨勢(shì),平均值為0.79,高于全國生態(tài)缺陷度平均水平,表明閩江流域的人均生態(tài)承載能力較弱,該地區(qū)在發(fā)展當(dāng)?shù)亟?jīng)濟(jì)的同時(shí)給自然資源和生態(tài)環(huán)境帶來了較大壓力。 8.閩江流域生態(tài)壓力指數(shù)上升趨勢(shì)明顯,平均值為5.39遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)大于1。1990—2011年,研究區(qū)域的生態(tài)足跡持續(xù)保持較大值且呈波動(dòng)上升趨勢(shì),增長速度快,而生態(tài)承載力變化不大,致使該區(qū)域的生態(tài)壓力不斷增加。 9.閩江流域生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)發(fā)展能力呈上升勢(shì),近幾年發(fā)展勢(shì)頭更強(qiáng),2011年達(dá)4.11,遠(yuǎn)高于國家平均水平1.71,說明該區(qū)域的發(fā)展能力在我國處于較高水平。 10.2011年閩江流域各個(gè)區(qū)域均處于生態(tài)赤字狀態(tài),寧德市區(qū)域人均生態(tài)赤字為5.842hm2,為閩江流域各區(qū)域最小值；其次為泉州市區(qū)域人均生態(tài)赤字為7.654hm2。其余區(qū)域生態(tài)赤字相對(duì)較大,三明市區(qū)域?yàn)殚}江流域人均生態(tài)赤字最大的地區(qū),其值為22.456hm2；福州市區(qū)域人均生態(tài)赤字為15.402hm2；龍巖市區(qū)域人均生態(tài)赤字為14.948hm2。南平市區(qū)域人均生態(tài)赤字為12.706hm2；莆田市區(qū)域人均生態(tài)赤字為11.434hm2。 11.閩江流域與福建省人均生態(tài)足跡整體動(dòng)態(tài)趨勢(shì)接近,均處于波動(dòng)上升變化。1997—2000年,閩江流域人均生態(tài)足跡均小于福建省人均生態(tài)足跡,平均差異為3hm2/cap；在1992、1995、1996、2001、2007及2010年閩江流域與福建省人均生態(tài)足跡相差不大,平均差異為0.3hm2/cap；而在其余年份,閩江流域人均生態(tài)承載力均比福建省人均生態(tài)足跡大,平均差異為0.68hm2/cap。 12.通過生態(tài)足跡與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的互動(dòng)分析結(jié)果表明,閩江流域生態(tài)足跡增加意味著資源消費(fèi)的增加,依靠資源消耗在短期內(nèi)對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長有一定促進(jìn)作用,但當(dāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長到一定的程度,依靠資源的過度消耗是不能帶來經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的,更有甚者會(huì)帶來負(fù)面影響。在閩江流域的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展過程中,經(jīng)濟(jì)的不斷發(fā)展意味著對(duì)于自然資源的過度開發(fā)利用,這一階段的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長將導(dǎo)致生態(tài)足跡的增加,但從長期來看,經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展對(duì)于生態(tài)足跡的影響有明顯減弱的趨勢(shì)。 13.第一、第二、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值與生態(tài)足跡為顯著正相關(guān),這表明第一產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值變動(dòng)是生態(tài)足跡變化的最主要影響因素,而第三產(chǎn)業(yè)直接影響為三產(chǎn)業(yè)中最小的。從分析結(jié)果可知閩江流域第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展本身對(duì)生態(tài)足跡確實(shí)存在負(fù)作用。所以,不斷優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),提高第三產(chǎn)業(yè)比重對(duì)控制生態(tài)足跡將會(huì)有明顯效果。 14.城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)閩江流域生態(tài)足跡的影響,除食品支出外,其他6項(xiàng)支出與生態(tài)足跡的總效益較為接近,其影響大小為：食品消費(fèi)居住家庭設(shè)備用品及服務(wù)衣著醫(yī)療保健教育文化娛樂服務(wù)交通和通信。 15.閩江流域生態(tài)足跡與常住人口數(shù)之間存在較強(qiáng)的線性關(guān)系,當(dāng)常住人口數(shù)增加1萬人,閩江流域生態(tài)足跡增加52.3萬公頃。 最后綜合上述研究結(jié)果,并結(jié)合研究區(qū)域?qū)嶋H情況就閩江流域土地利用率、人口數(shù)量、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、居民消費(fèi)觀念等方面,提出了控制生態(tài)赤字,促進(jìn)閩江流域生態(tài)與經(jīng)濟(jì)和諧發(fā)展的對(duì)策建議。
[Abstract]:Along with the continuous deepening of ecological civilization construction, Fujian province is one of the important economic zones in Fujian province by strengthening the ecological environment protection and accelerating the economic development transformation. The Minjiang basin is one of the important economic zones in Fujian province. The sustainable development of the economy, society and the environment in our province is of great importance. The sustainable ecological economic system of the Minjiang river basin is sustainable. Development has far-reaching impact on promoting the construction of ecological civilization leading demonstration areas in our province.
With the continuous development and utilization of natural resources, such as water resources, land resources, energy resources and other natural resources in the Minjiang basin, the ecological environment of the Minjiang basin has been destroyed to different degrees, and the challenges facing the economic development are more and more severe. Therefore, the study of the long term sequence of the ecological footprint of the Minjiang basin is aimed at tracking the sustainable development of the Minjiang River Basin. Dynamic changes, accurately assess the ecological status of the Minjiang River Basin, find out the development defects of the ecological environment in Minjiang basin, and find out the Countermeasures for the construction and development of ecological civilization.
Based on the traditional ecological footprint theory and the energy value theory, this study added the fresh water account on the basis of the traditional consumption account of biological resources and energy consumption account, and the consumption account of pollutants has improved the ecological footprint of the energy.
Based on the improved energy ecological footprint model, the dynamic analysis of ecological footprint, ecological carrying capacity and ecological deficit in Minjiang basin from 1990 to 2011 was calculated. At the same time, the ecological footprint, ecological footprint diversity index, ecological balance coefficient, ecological load deficiency index, ecological pressure index, ecological economic system development ability were selected. The 6 categories of indicators for the sustainable development of the sustainable development of the ecosystem in the Minjiang basin were comprehensively evaluated. The effects of factors such as the economic growth of the Minjiang basin, the changes of industrial structure, the change of the consumption structure and the population growth on the ecological footprint were analyzed, and the method of regression analysis was carried out by the impulse response function, the path analysis, the grey correlation analysis, and the regression analysis method. The relationship between the various factors and the ecological footprint is shown. The grey prediction model of the ecological footprint of the Minjiang basin is proposed by using the grey prediction theory. Finally, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are provided for the sustainable development of the Minjiang river basin with the ecological, economic and social status of the Minjiang Basin. The results show that:
1. the ecological footprint of Minjiang basin from 1990 to 2011 showed an upward trend in general.
2. the ecological carrying capacity of Minjiang basin fluctuated from 1990 to 2011. The peak value of ecological carrying capacity appeared in 2010, and the minimum value appeared in 2003.
The ecological footprint of Minjiang River Basin from 3.1990 to 2011 is mainly composed of arable land and water area. The average proportion of ecological footprint of cultivated land is 40.58%, the average ratio of ecological footprint of water area is 20.18%. The proportion of energy land, fresh water resource land and forest land three types are 10% to 15%, and grassland, wetland and construction land are smaller than 2%..
The ecological deficit phenomenon in the Minjiang basin from 4.1990 to 2011 showed a trend of fluctuating growth. It is worth noting that the total ecological deficit in 2011 and 2003 increased rapidly in comparison with the previous year, and the growth rate was 89% and 78.43%., respectively.
5. the ecological footprint of the million yuan GDP in the Minjiang basin in 22 years continues to decline, from 33.37hm2/ million in 1990 to 3.09hm2 million in 2011, and the decline is 90.74%. The trend is conducive to the coordination of natural ecology and social and economic systems in the Minjiang basin and sustainable development.
6. the ecological footprint diversity of the Minjiang river basin is in a steady trend after the first fluctuation. It can be seen that the development and utilization of various types of land in the Minjiang basin is generally developing towards a balanced trend.
7. the per capita ecological coordination system in the Minjiang basin is small and the whole is decreasing, especially in the last few years, the average value of the ecological carrying capacity of the Minjiang basin is fluctuating, the average value is 0.79, which is higher than the average level of the national ecological deficit, which indicates that the per capita ecological carrying capacity of the Minjiang basin is weak, While developing the local economy, the region has brought great pressure to natural resources and ecological environment.
8. the rising trend of ecological pressure index in Minjiang basin is obvious, the average value is 5.39 far greater than 1.1990 - 2011. The ecological footprint of the study area continues to remain large and fluctuates, the growth rate is fast, and the ecological carrying capacity is not changed, which makes the ecological pressure of the region increasing.
9. the development ability of the ecological economic system in Minjiang river basin is rising, and the development momentum is stronger in recent years, reaching 4.11 in 2011, which is far higher than the national average level of 1.71, which indicates that the development ability of the region is at a high level in China.
In 10.2011 years, each region of the Minjiang river basin is in the state of ecological deficit. The regional per capita ecological deficit of Ningde is 5.842hm2, which is the smallest value in all regions of the Minjiang basin. Secondly, the ecological deficit of the regional per capita ecological deficit of Quanzhou is relatively large in the rest of the other regions of the 7.654hm2., and the Sanming City region is the region with the largest ecological deficit per capita in the Minjiang basin. Its value is 22.456hm2, and the regional per capita ecological deficit in Fuzhou is 15.402hm2, and the regional per capita ecological deficit of Longyan is 12.706hm2 in 14.948hm2. Nanping region, and the regional per capita ecological deficit of Putian is 11.434hm2.
11. the overall dynamic trend of the per capita ecological footprint of Minjiang River Basin and Fujian province is close, all in.1997 - 2000. The per capita ecological footprint of Minjiang basin is less than that of the per capita ecological footprint of Fujian Province, the average difference is 3hm2/cap. In 19921995199620012007 and in 2010, there is little difference between the per capita ecological footprint of Minjiang and Fujian province. The average difference is 0.3hm2/cap; in other years, the per capita ecological carrying capacity of Minjiang river basin is larger than that of Fujian Province, with an average difference of 0.68hm2/cap.
12. through the analysis of the interaction between ecological footprint and economic growth, the increase of ecological footprint in the Minjiang river basin indicates that the increase of ecological footprint means the increase of the consumption of resources, and the consumption of resources has a certain effect on the economic growth in the short term. However, the excessive consumption of resources can not bring economic growth to a certain extent. In the process of economic development in the Minjiang basin, the continuous development of the economy means the overexploitation and utilization of natural resources. The economic growth of this stage will lead to the increase of ecological footprint, but in the long run, the influence of economic development on the ecological footprint is obviously weakened.
13. the first, second, third industry added value is positively correlated with the ecological footprint, which indicates that the change of the added value of the first industry is the most important factor of the change of the ecological footprint, while the direct influence of the third industry is the smallest in the three industry. From the analysis results, the development of the third industry in the Minjiang basin itself does have a negative effect on the ecological footprint. Therefore, constantly optimizing the industrial structure and increasing the proportion of the third industries will have obvious effect on controlling the ecological footprint.
14. the effects of urban residents' consumption structure on the ecological footprint of Minjiang River Basin, except for food expenditure, the total benefits of other 6 expenditures and ecological footprint are close, the size of which is: food consumption, household equipment and services, medical care, health education, cultural and entertainment services, transportation and communication.
15. there is a strong linear relationship between the ecological footprint and the number of resident population in the Minjiang basin. When the number of permanent population increases by 10 thousand people, the ecological footprint of the Minjiang river basin is increased by 523 thousand hectares.
Finally, combining the results of the above research, and combining with the actual situation of the region, the paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions to control the ecological deficit and promote the harmonious development of the ecological and economic development of the Minjiang basin on the land utilization rate, population quantity, industrial structure and the consumption concept of the residents in the Minjiang basin.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：福建農(nóng)林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F127;X22

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