本文選題：地方政府債務(wù) + 經(jīng)濟增長�。� 參考：《江西財經(jīng)大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：當政府的財政面臨著巨大的壓力時,政府就會通過一定的方式向民間進行借貸,這樣一來,這些借貸就成了一般意義上而言的政府債務(wù),它是政府發(fā)揮自身行政職能的一個有利促進劑。對于這些債務(wù),一般而言,政府會使用在教育或者其他公共基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的建設(shè)上。但是,在真正的實施過程中,政府對于所籌集債務(wù)的運用和管理都與事先的計劃有著很大的差距,這種使用上的問題使得很多國家發(fā)生了或多或少的債務(wù)危機。本文為了更好地研究地方政府債務(wù)對經(jīng)濟增長的影響,先進行了理論研究和現(xiàn)狀分析,接著進行實證研究,最后得出結(jié)論并給出相對應的政策建議。全文總共分為六章:第一章首先介紹了本文的研究背景和意義,簡單地闡述了筆者為什么要進行本文的寫作,本文的寫作到底有怎么樣的意義。接著在第二小節(jié),我們對國外和國內(nèi)學者關(guān)于債務(wù)與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展關(guān)系的研究成果分別進行了梳理。最后筆者詳細介紹了本文的研究方法,并且對本文的研究內(nèi)容和研究框架進行了描述。第二章論述了地方政府債務(wù)與地方經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的理論基礎(chǔ),即公債理論,并具體敘述了公債有效理論、公債無效理論以及公債中性理論,為下面研究地進行提供了理論基礎(chǔ)。第三章則是地方債務(wù)影響地區(qū)經(jīng)濟增長的定性分析,也就是機理分析,我們分別從短期的波動以及長期的增長來分別進行闡述,進而對債務(wù)與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展之間的關(guān)系有了一個定性的認識。第四章則分為三個小節(jié),第一小節(jié)論述了目前我國地方政府債務(wù)的現(xiàn)狀,第二小節(jié)對我國地方政府債務(wù)中所存在的一些問題進行了闡述,接著第三小節(jié)就對上一小節(jié)所描述的問題進行了詳細的分析。第五章是實證研究部分,也是整個文章的重點所在,所選取的數(shù)據(jù)為2009—2013年30個省市區(qū)的數(shù)據(jù)。本章第一節(jié)先對全國30個省市區(qū)的債務(wù)與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展情況進行統(tǒng)計分析,之后將全國劃分為東部、中部和西部三個區(qū)域,以區(qū)域為單位進行統(tǒng)計分析。第二節(jié)運用靜態(tài)面板模型和動態(tài)面板模型對債務(wù)與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展之間的關(guān)系進行回歸,并對回歸結(jié)果進行分析,靜態(tài)面板回歸選取了隨機效應模型,動態(tài)面板回歸則用了系統(tǒng)GMM估計方法。第六章對前面的理論研究和實證研究部分進行了總結(jié),并有針對性地提出政策建議。通過全文的研究,我們得出了如下結(jié)論。(1)在我國地方政府債務(wù)中,存在著地方政府債務(wù)的風險主要集中于銀行、地方政府債務(wù)的管理缺少專門機構(gòu)、地方政府債務(wù)的資金沒有被合理使用、有些地方政府債務(wù)規(guī)模超過了其償還能力、短期內(nèi)地方政府債務(wù)面臨流動性風險等問題,這些問題都制約著地方債務(wù)對地方經(jīng)濟發(fā)展促進作用的發(fā)揮。(2)從30個省市的統(tǒng)計分析中發(fā)現(xiàn),債務(wù)規(guī)模最大的省市,其GDP總量并不一定最大。但總體上仍表現(xiàn)為債務(wù)規(guī)模較大的省市,其GDP總量一般也比較大。在我國三大區(qū)域中,中部和東部的負債率相對西部低很多,但是東部地區(qū)的債務(wù)規(guī)模遠超于中部和西部,東部、中部和西部的負債額逐年增高,而且幅度較高。(3)根據(jù)30個省市區(qū)數(shù)據(jù)的統(tǒng)計分析我們發(fā)現(xiàn),地方政府債務(wù)與地區(qū)經(jīng)濟增長之間存在正向關(guān)系。(4)通過文中的計量檢驗可以得到,債務(wù)率與經(jīng)濟增長之間有著互為因果的關(guān)系,而且經(jīng)濟增長率對債務(wù)率的促進作用高于債務(wù)率對經(jīng)濟增長率的促進作用。不管是通過靜態(tài)面板數(shù)據(jù)模型得到的結(jié)果,還是通過系統(tǒng)GMM回歸出來的結(jié)果,均顯示債務(wù)率對于經(jīng)濟增長率有著顯著的正向性,而這一結(jié)論與我們采用30個省2009—2013年的數(shù)據(jù)所做出來的統(tǒng)計分析結(jié)果有相似之處。同時加入滯后項后回歸出來的系數(shù)比靜態(tài)面板回歸出來的系數(shù)要大,表明債務(wù)率對經(jīng)濟增長率的促進作用,相比短期而言,長期更加明顯。區(qū)域異質(zhì)性檢驗表明,從我國東部到中部,再到西部,債務(wù)率對經(jīng)濟增長率的作用不斷減弱。
[Abstract]:When the government's finances are under great pressure, the government will lend to the people in a certain way, so that these loans are generally government debt, which is a favorable promoter for the government to play its own administrative functions. However, in the process of real implementation, the government has a big gap between the use and management of the debt raised and the prior plan. This problem has caused many countries to have a more or less debt crisis. In order to better study the economic growth of local government debt. The influence, first carries on the theoretical research and the present situation analysis, then carries on the empirical study, finally draws the conclusion and gives the corresponding policy suggestion. The full text is divided into six chapters altogether: the first chapter first introduces the research background and significance of this article, and briefly explains why the writer should enter the writing of this article, what is the writing of this article in the end Then in the second section, we have combed the research results of foreign and domestic scholars on the relationship between debt and economic development respectively. Finally, the author describes the research method in detail, and describes the research content and research framework of this article. The second chapter discusses the local government debt and the local economic development. The theoretical basis, namely the theory of public debt, describes the effective theory of the public debt, the theory of the invalidity of the public debt and the neutral theory of the public debt, which provides the theoretical basis for the following research. The third chapter is the qualitative analysis of the economic growth of the local debt affected areas, that is, the mechanism analysis, and we are from short-term fluctuations and long-term growth, respectively. There is a qualitative understanding of the relationship between debt and economic development. The fourth chapter is divided into three sections. The first section discusses the current situation of local government debt in China, and the second sections explain some of the problems existing in local government debt in our country, and then the third sections are on the first small section. The fifth chapter is an empirical study and the focus of the whole article. The selected data is the data of 30 provinces and cities from 2009 to 2013. The first section of this chapter first analyzes the debt and economic development of the 30 provinces and municipalities in the country, and then divides the country into the East, the central part, and the central part. The three regions in the West and the western region, take the region as the unit to carry out statistical analysis. The second section uses static panel model and dynamic panel model to return the relationship between debt and economic development, and analyses the results of the regression. Static panel regression selects the random effect model, dynamic panel regression uses the system GMM estimation method. Sixth The chapter summarizes the previous theoretical research and empirical research, and puts forward the policy suggestions. Through the full text, we draw the following conclusions. (1) in our local government debt, the risk of local government debt is mainly concentrated in the bank, the management of local government debt is lack of specialized agencies and local government. The capital of the government debt is not reasonably used, some local government debt is more than its repayment ability, and the local government debt is facing the liquidity risk in the short term. These problems restrict the role of local debt to promote the local economic development. (2) the largest province of debt is found in the statistical analysis of 30 provinces and cities. The total amount of GDP in the city is not necessarily the largest. But on the whole, the total amount of the debt is still larger, and the total amount of GDP is generally relatively large. In the three major regions of China, the debt ratio in the middle and East is much lower than that in the West, but the debt scale in the eastern region is far more than the central and West, and the debt of the East, the central and the west is increasing year by year. And (3) we found that there is a positive relationship between local government debt and regional economic growth according to the statistical analysis of 30 provinces and urban areas. (4) the relationship between the debt rate and economic growth is mutually beneficial, and the economic growth rate is higher than the debt rate. The effect of service rate on economic growth rate, whether by the results obtained through the static panel data model or by the result of the system GMM regression, shows that the debt rate has a significant positive effect on the economic growth rate, and this conclusion is with the statistical analysis that we used in the data of 30 provinces from 2009 to 2013. At the same time, the coefficient of regression is larger than that of the static panel, which indicates that the debt rate is more obvious to the economic growth rate than in the short term. The regional heterogeneity test shows that the role of the debt rate to the economic growth rate is decreasing from the east to the middle of China, and then to the West. Weak.

【學位授予單位】：江西財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F812.5;F127

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