本文選題：吉林省 + 水環(huán)境　； 參考：《吉林大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：水環(huán)境是整個(gè)生態(tài)環(huán)境系統(tǒng)中的一個(gè)重要子系統(tǒng)，水資源對(duì)人類生存、生活和社會(huì)發(fā)展具有不可或缺的重要戰(zhàn)略作用。吉林省作為老工業(yè)基地的典型，隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模和人口規(guī)模的不斷擴(kuò)大，消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整，水資源需求量不斷增加，水環(huán)境壓力增大，特別是2005年松花江發(fā)生重大水污染事件以后，水環(huán)境保護(hù)引起了高度重視。 本文運(yùn)用環(huán)境庫茨涅茨曲線來分析吉林省經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展和水環(huán)境質(zhì)量之間的關(guān)系，檢驗(yàn)兩者之間是否呈現(xiàn)典型環(huán)境庫茨涅茨曲線的倒U型曲線關(guān)系，結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)，吉林省工業(yè)廢水排放量與人均GDP之間呈N型曲線關(guān)系，并且還處于上升階段，而城鎮(zhèn)生活污水排放量與人均GDP之間則出現(xiàn)了典型的倒U型曲線關(guān)系，拐點(diǎn)約為人均GDP達(dá)38400元時(shí)。 另外，本文對(duì)吉林省水環(huán)境污染與經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了環(huán)境庫茲涅茨曲線檢驗(yàn)后，又分析了影響水環(huán)境污染的主要因素，以水環(huán)境污染指標(biāo)為因變量，以人口因素、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、城鎮(zhèn)化率、技術(shù)水平等為自變量，，進(jìn)行多元回歸分析，以探討其對(duì)水環(huán)境污染的影響程度，研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，它們的共同作用對(duì)水環(huán)境污染有顯著作用，回歸模型顯著。文章最后根據(jù)影響因素分析，設(shè)置了吉林省發(fā)展的三種模式，基準(zhǔn)情景，理想情景和推薦情景，分析得出，吉林省工業(yè)廢水排放量在基準(zhǔn)情景下繼續(xù)增加，而在理想情景和推薦情景下出現(xiàn)減少趨勢(shì)，在推薦情景下預(yù)計(jì)吉林省工業(yè)廢水排放量的環(huán)境庫茲涅茨曲線拐點(diǎn)約為人均GDP達(dá)40000元時(shí)。 最后，為使吉林省水環(huán)境保護(hù)與經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展提出以下針對(duì)性建議：調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)，加快城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程，加大環(huán)保資金投入，健全法律法規(guī)，增強(qiáng)環(huán)保意識(shí)等。
[Abstract]:Water environment is an important subsystem in the whole ecological environment system. Water resources play an indispensable strategic role in human survival, life and social development. As a typical old industrial base in Jilin Province, with the expansion of economic scale and population scale, the adjustment of consumption structure, the demand for water resources is increasing, and the pressure of water environment is increasing. Especially after the serious water pollution happened in Songhua River in 2005, water environmental protection has aroused great attention. In this paper, the relationship between economic and social development and water environment quality in Jilin Province is analyzed by using the environmental Kuznets curve. The results show that the relationship between the two curves shows the inverted U-shape curve of the typical environmental Kuznets curve. The relationship between the discharge of industrial wastewater and the per capita GDP in Jilin Province is N-shaped, and it is still in the rising stage. However, there is a typical inverted U-shaped curve between the discharge of urban domestic sewage and the per capita GDP. The inflection point is about 38400 yuan per capita GDP. In addition, after examining the relationship between water environmental pollution and economic and social development in Jilin Province, the paper analyzes the main factors affecting water environmental pollution, taking the water environmental pollution index as dependent variable and population factor. The industrial structure, urbanization rate and technology level are independent variables, and multivariate regression analysis is carried out to study the influence of industrial structure, urbanization rate and technology level on water environmental pollution. It is found that their combined effects on water environmental pollution are significant, and the regression model is significant. Finally, according to the analysis of the influencing factors, the paper sets up three development models of Jilin Province, namely, the benchmark scenario, the ideal scenario and the recommended scenario. The analysis shows that the discharge of industrial wastewater in Jilin Province continues to increase under the base scenario. Under the ideal scenario and the recommended scenario, the environmental Kuznets curve inflection point of industrial wastewater discharge in Jilin Province is estimated to be 40000 yuan per capita. Finally, in order to coordinate the development of water environmental protection and economic society in Jilin Province, the following suggestions are put forward: adjusting the industrial structure, speeding up the process of urbanization, increasing the investment of environmental protection funds, perfecting laws and regulations, strengthening the consciousness of environmental protection, etc.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：X52;F127;X22

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