本文選題：收入分布變遷 + 消費市場效應��； 參考：《吉林大學》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：自1978年改革開放以來，我國進入一個有史以來最好的發(fā)展階段，經(jīng)濟高速增長帶來居民收入水平的快速提高及其分配結構的劇烈演變，而且快速發(fā)展過程中出現(xiàn)問題及在問題解決中呈現(xiàn)出的反復和震蕩，必然比發(fā)達國家來的明顯和劇烈。中國這一特定的經(jīng)濟環(huán)境決定了其在整個發(fā)展過程中的理論創(chuàng)新和政策實踐必將遇到許多不同于西方傳統(tǒng)理論的新挑戰(zhàn)和新課題。于是，從收入分布變遷出發(fā)，重新審視我國收入和消費間的作用機制，對尋求激發(fā)和釋放居民需求的突破口來說，具有重要的理論和現(xiàn)實意義。 本文以“經(jīng)濟增長→居民收入分布變遷→消費行為改變→消費市場效應”為思想主線，以居民收入分布變遷為切入點，且把其作為近年來我國居民消費需求演變的主要動力，提出了收入分布變遷消費市場效應的理論預期，該預期的核心內(nèi)容是在市場機制主導下由居民收入分布變遷引致而來的居民消費需求偏好和檔次的轉(zhuǎn)變和局部多個市場輪番出現(xiàn)供不應求和價格虛高等非均衡現(xiàn)象的結果。為分析其合理性，本文從理論和計量兩個展開討論。 首先通過對西方經(jīng)典消費理論的簡單回顧和評析，在儲蓄動機不同的異質(zhì)群體假設下分析出了收入和儲蓄之間的“馬鞍形”關系，此為西方收入分布和消費作用的主要理論觀點。但通過對我國城鎮(zhèn)居民收入分布變遷和需求的演變規(guī)律發(fā)現(xiàn)，此規(guī)律并不符合我國居民特有的間歇性周期波動消費行為及其“整體需求不足、局部需求旺盛”的需求現(xiàn)狀，很難實現(xiàn)西方式的由微觀到宏觀的過度。因此本文轉(zhuǎn)換思路，從收入分布視角，并結合我國居民消費行為規(guī)律，提出收入分布變遷消費市場效應的理論預期是很有理論必要的。 要計量檢驗收入分布變遷消費市場效應的存在性和合理性，前提需完成收入分布變遷的測度及相關計量變量的設計。首先運用非參數(shù)核密度估計方法和多種函數(shù)形式參數(shù)方法相結合的方式，選取8次CHNS數(shù)據(jù)的大樣本調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)和統(tǒng)計年鑒中2000-2009年城鎮(zhèn)居民收入分組數(shù)據(jù)對收入分布進行了擬合，結果顯示我國城鎮(zhèn)居民收入水平由低到高向上轉(zhuǎn)移的趨勢明顯，而這種提高的不同步性又導致了收入差距的擴大。其次采用反事實分析法，分解得到度量收入分布變遷的均值變化、方差變化和殘差變化三個動態(tài)特征的計量變量，分解結果中均值變化占據(jù)主導，方差變化次之，說明在收入分布變遷中經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的推動作用為主導，由現(xiàn)階段的分配制度等導致的不同步次之。 在收入分布變遷計量完成基礎上，依據(jù)消費的經(jīng)濟邏輯理論，在異質(zhì)性偏好的前提下，證明了收入分布變遷會對會對總消費產(chǎn)生組群下的水平效應、組內(nèi)規(guī)模效應和組間分配效應三方面影響。而后采用CHIP數(shù)據(jù)中2002年和2007年的城鎮(zhèn)數(shù)據(jù)，借助內(nèi)生性門限回歸的組群劃分，通過對上述結果的實證檢驗表明，水平效應對總消費變化的影響占主導；規(guī)模效應則對總消費有抑制作用，源于組群間由高到低的人口回流；組間分配效應在整體上作用很小，表明組間收入差距對總消費的抑制作用沒有想象中那么大，但群體間作用差異大，尤其是低收入組群對總消費的抑制作用最大。 在上一步研究基礎上進一步深入，對消費支出分布分位點上居民的收入分布變遷消費效應進行研究。為了保證微觀數(shù)據(jù)間的可比性，對CHIP數(shù)據(jù)進行了人工面板改造，借助其門限模型的分位數(shù)回歸，完成了消費分布分位點上收入分布變遷消費效應的度量，結果表明居民收入方差帶來的離散效應在各分位點的消費效應中占據(jù)主導，而均值變化帶來的水平效應表現(xiàn)乏力。因此，水平效應對絕對支出增長貢獻的乏力，直接導致了其在現(xiàn)實中對消費率拉低的主導作用。另外，我國收入分布和消費分布間存在矛盾，其根源由對CHIP數(shù)據(jù)的統(tǒng)計分析表明，在于現(xiàn)階段我國多數(shù)居民，尤其是中等階層面臨的消費結構困境。 至于收入分布變遷對消費結構的影響效應研究，首先構造“反事實收入變量”，對AIDS模型進行動態(tài)性擴展，而后基于我國“十五”和“十一五”兩期的城鎮(zhèn)數(shù)據(jù)進行了實證檢驗，結果顯示“十五”時期我國城鎮(zhèn)居民消費結構整體上由生存型向發(fā)展型演變升級，整體收入的提高帶來的水平效應是我國消費結構不斷升級的主要原因；而“十一五”期間的水平效應不再顯著，，離散和異質(zhì)效應占據(jù)主導，整體社會需求下滑；但收入差距對個別市場消費有一定積極作用，尤其對耐用品和文化娛樂服務等消費；異質(zhì)效應作用下高收入階層已有顯著地的服務類消費需求，消費結構存在進一步升級的可能。上述分析說明水平效應決定整體需求，而離散和異質(zhì)效應影響單個市場需求。 最后進一步以家用車市場為例考察了收入分布變遷對單一市場的影響�；诎词杖敕纸M的城鎮(zhèn)居民家用車擁有量等數(shù)據(jù)，采用基于消費函數(shù)回歸的分解方法，度量了收入分布變遷對家用車市場的影響效應。結果顯示收入分布變遷的水平效應幾乎均起到了決定性的正向拉動作用，但其效果并未得到充分釋放，原因在于離散效應對低收入者的抑制作用，但離散效應對中等以上的高收入人群的需求具有很強的正向促進作用，其現(xiàn)階段在全國整體來看仍有積極作用；異質(zhì)效應則由于數(shù)據(jù)原因略顯微弱。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up in 1978, China has entered the best development stage in history. The rapid economic growth has brought about the rapid improvement of the income level of the residents and the dramatic evolution of the distribution structure, and the problems appearing in the process of rapid development and the reversal and concussion presented in the problem solving are certainly more obvious and more dramatic than those in the developed countries. The specific economic environment in China determines that the theoretical innovation and policy practice in the whole process of development will meet many new challenges and new topics which are different from the traditional western theories. From the change of income distribution, we reexamine the mechanism of the income and consumption in China, and seek to stimulate and release the needs of the residents. For breach, it has important theoretical and practical significance.
This paper, based on the "economic growth, the change of the distribution of residents' income, the change of consumption behavior and the effect of consumer market", takes the change of residents' income distribution as the breakthrough point, and takes it as the main motive force of the evolution of the consumer demand in China in recent years, and puts forward the theoretical expectation of the effect of the change of the income distribution on the consumption market, and the expected core The content of the heart is the result of the consumption demand preference and grade change caused by the change of residents' income distribution under the market mechanism led by the change of residents' income distribution, and the result of unbalanced supply and price deficiency in the local multiple markets. In order to analyze its rationality, this paper is discussed from two theories and measures.
First of all, through a simple review and analysis of the western classical consumption theory, the "saddle shape" relationship between income and savings is analyzed under the hypothesis of different heterogeneous groups of savings motives. This is the main theoretical point of view of the distribution and consumption of income in the West. It is found that the law does not conform to the specific consumption behavior of intermittent periodic fluctuation in our country and the demand of "insufficient overall demand and strong local demand". It is difficult to realize the western style from microcosmic to macro. Therefore, this paper puts forward the idea of changing ideas from income distribution and combining with the law of consumer behavior in our country. The theoretical anticipation of the effect of entering and distributing the consumption market is very theoretical and necessary.
In order to measure the existence and rationality of the change of the consumption market effect of the change of income distribution, the measurement of the change of income distribution and the design of relative variables should be completed. First, the large sample data and statistical year of the 8 CHNS data are selected by combining the non parametric kernel density estimation method and the multiple function form parameter methods. The income distribution of urban residents in the 2000-2009 years is fitted. The results show that the income level of urban residents from low to high is obvious, and the unsynchronization of this kind of improvement leads to the expansion of income gap. Secondly, the change of income distribution is measured by the anti fact analysis. The measurement variables of three dynamic characteristics, such as value change, variance change and residual variation, dominate the mean change in the decomposition results, and the variance change is the second. It shows that the driving role of economic development in the change of income distribution is dominant, which is caused by the current stage distribution system and so on.
On the basis of the measurement of income distribution change, based on the economic logic theory of consumption, under the premise of heterogeneity preference, it is proved that the change of income distribution will affect the level effect under the group of total consumption, the intra group scale effect and the inter group distribution effect in three aspects, and then adopt the town data of 2002 and 2007 in the CHIP data. By means of the group division of the endogenous threshold regression, the empirical test of the above results shows that the influence of the level effect on the total consumption change is dominant; the scale effect has the inhibitory effect on the total consumption, which is derived from the backflow of the population from high to low, and the effect of the inter group distribution is small on the whole, which indicates that the income gap between the groups is to the total. The inhibitory effect of consumption is not as great as expected, but there is a large difference between groups. Especially, the low income group has the largest inhibitory effect on total consumption.
On the basis of the last step, we further study the consumption effect of the income distribution changes on the consumption distribution loci. In order to ensure the comparability of the microdata, the CHIP data is reconstructed by artificial panel and the income distribution on the consumption distribution site is changed with the help of the quantile regression of the threshold model. The measurement of the effect of migrating consumption shows that the discrete effect of the resident income variance dominates the consumption effect of the sub loci, while the level effect of the mean change is weak. Therefore, the lack of the contribution of the level effect to the absolute expenditure increase directly leads to its leading role in the low consumption rate in reality. There is a contradiction between the distribution of income and the distribution of consumption in China. The root of the problem is that the statistical analysis of CHIP data shows that most of the residents in China, especially the middle class, are facing the consumption structure dilemma at the present stage.
As for the effect of income distribution change on the consumption structure, the "anti factual income variable" is first constructed, the AIDS model is dynamically expanded, and then based on the urban data of "fifteen" and "11th Five-Year" in China, the empirical test shows that the urban residents' consumption structure in China in the "fifteen" period is on the whole. The upgrading of the survival type to the development type and the level effect of the overall income increase are the main reasons for the continuous upgrading of the consumption structure in China, while the level effect of the "11th Five-Year" is no longer significant, the discrete and heterogeneous effects dominate, and the overall social demand is declining; but the income gap has a positive effect on the individual market consumption, Especially for the consumption of durable goods and cultural entertainment services, the high income class has significant service consumption demand and the consumption structure may be further upgraded under the effect of heterogeneous effect. The above analysis shows that the level effect determines the overall demand, and the discrete and heterogeneous effects affect the individual market demand.
Finally, we take the household car market as an example to examine the influence of the income distribution change on the single market. Based on the data of the household car ownership of the urban residents according to the income group, the effect of the change of income distribution on the household car market is measured by the decomposition method based on the consumption function regression. The result shows the change of the income distribution. The effect of the leveling effect almost all played a decisive positive pull effect, but its effect was not fully released, because the discretization effect on the low income people was inhibited, but the discrete effect had a strong positive effect on the demand of the high income crowd, which was still positive in the whole country at the present stage. The quality effect is slightly weak because of the data.

【學位授予單位】：吉林大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F124.7;F126.1;F224

【參考文獻】

相關期刊論文 前10條

1 李實;羅楚亮;;中國城鄉(xiāng)居民收入差距的重新估計[J];北京大學學報(哲學社會科學版);2007年02期

2 孫巍;謝淑萍;朱嬡玲;林國懷;;收入效應說與現(xiàn)階段轎車市場需求的規(guī)律性——基于2004-2006年21種典型轎車月度數(shù)據(jù)的實證分析[J];商業(yè)研究;2008年08期

3 洪求枝;高明成;夏瑩嬌;;灰色系統(tǒng)預測方法在我國私人汽車擁有量預測中的應用[J];長江大學學報(自然科學版)理工卷;2008年01期

4 王亞芬;肖曉飛;高鐵梅;;我國城鎮(zhèn)居民收入分配差距的實證研究[J];財經(jīng)問題研究;2007年06期

5 張世偉;郝東陽;;分位數(shù)上城鎮(zhèn)居民消費支出的決定[J];財經(jīng)問題研究;2011年09期

6 喬為國,孔欣欣;中國居民收入差距對消費傾向變動趨勢的影響[J];當代經(jīng)濟科學;2005年05期

7 古繼寶;榮敏;吳劍琳;;中國民用汽車保有量的組合預測[J];工業(yè)技術經(jīng)濟;2010年04期

8 任玉瓏;陳容;史樂峰;;基于Logistic組合模型的中國民用汽車保有量預測[J];工業(yè)技術經(jīng)濟;2011年08期

9 王艷;范金;;收入差距與中國城鎮(zhèn)居民消費行為的實證研究[J];管理工程學報;2007年01期

10 金曉彤,楊曉東;中國城鎮(zhèn)居民消費行為變異媦的四個假說及其理論分析[J];管理世界;2004年11期

相關博士學位論文 前2條

1 張馨月;基于收入變遷的城鎮(zhèn)居民乘用車需求演化規(guī)律研究[D];吉林大學;2011年

2 陳云;居民收入分布及其變遷的統(tǒng)計研究[D];首都經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學;2009年

本文編號：1792606