本文選題：新興經(jīng)濟體 + 經(jīng)濟韌性��； 參考：《世界經(jīng)濟研究》2017年08期

【摘要】：資本約束的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展效應(yīng)一直是學(xué)術(shù)界爭論的焦點,在經(jīng)濟增長乏力期,跨境資本"緊箍咒"是否有利于實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟韌性,這是一個亟待研究的課題。文章基于全球價值鏈視角,實證考察了32個新興經(jīng)濟體國家的資本約束政策對實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟韌性的影響,并解構(gòu)了全球價值鏈嵌入的門限效應(yīng)特征。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),資本約束與全球價值鏈嵌入的交互項對經(jīng)濟韌性的偏效應(yīng)并不顯著,其原因是受到了價值鏈分工的雙重門檻效應(yīng)影響。在此門檻效應(yīng)下,隨著全球價值鏈嵌入度的提高,資本約束對經(jīng)濟韌性的正效應(yīng)逐步被弱化。當(dāng)前新興經(jīng)濟體正面臨價值鏈底端鎖定問題,價值鏈參與度與地位指數(shù)均處于低水平,在突圍被"俘獲"與"壓榨"的底端價值鏈的同時,實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟可持續(xù)發(fā)展,資本約束將成為重要發(fā)力點。
[Abstract]:The effect of capital constraint on economic development has always been the focus of debate in academic circles. In the period of weak economic growth, whether cross-border capital "incantation" is conducive to the realization of economic resilience is an urgent issue to be studied. Based on the perspective of global value chain, this paper empirically examines the impact of capital constraint policies on the realization of economic resilience in 32 emerging economies, and deconstructs the threshold effects embedded in global value chains. It is found that the partial effect of the interaction between capital constraints and global value chains on economic resilience is not significant because of the double threshold effect of value chain division. Under this threshold effect, the positive effect of capital constraint on economic toughness is gradually weakened with the increase of global value chain embeddedness. At present, emerging economies are facing the problem of locking the bottom of the value chain. The participation and status index of the value chain are both at a low level. While breaking through the value chain at the bottom of the value chain that has been "captured" and "squeezed", the emerging economies are realizing sustainable economic development. Capital constraint will become an important starting point.
【作者單位】： 石河子大學(xué)經(jīng)濟與管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金面上項目“中國利率、匯率與央行資產(chǎn)負債及貨幣供應(yīng)之間的交互影響:實證分析與政策意涵(項目編號:71373187)” 中國博士后特別資助項目“金融經(jīng)濟周期視角下的金融沖擊識別與金融穩(wěn)定政策研究(項目編號:2016T90645)”的階段性研究成果
【分類號】：F113

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