本文選題：貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu) + 產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)�。� 參考：《上海社會科學(xué)院》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：改革開放以來,中國經(jīng)濟發(fā)生了翻天覆地的變化。我國的產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展和貿(mào)易格局都呈現(xiàn)出巨大的進步,同時也伴隨著結(jié)構(gòu)性的失衡,其中由產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)失衡所引致的對外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)失衡,以及后者對前者的反向強化作用,進一步固化了中國的靜態(tài)比較優(yōu)勢。在此次全球金融危機中,我國以出口為導(dǎo)向的產(chǎn)業(yè)遭受了嚴重打擊,而且還成為了眾多發(fā)達國家實施“兩反政策”的主要目標。中國的內(nèi)外部經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)性失衡問題亟待解決,特別是對外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整尤為重要,它是減少貿(mào)易摩擦、避免中等收入陷阱、實現(xiàn)產(chǎn)業(yè)和經(jīng)濟可持續(xù)發(fā)展所必須采取的重要舉措。 在經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變和國際環(huán)境發(fā)生變化的情況下,應(yīng)該如何正確看待和評價我國對外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)兩者之間互動關(guān)系?在我國向世界經(jīng)濟強國邁進的征途中,究竟應(yīng)該選擇什么樣的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)略和產(chǎn)業(yè)政策才能實現(xiàn)對外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的良性互動發(fā)展路徑?這些問題都已經(jīng)引起了人們的廣泛關(guān)注。通過查閱文獻,本文發(fā)現(xiàn)越來越多的學(xué)者不局限于研究貿(mào)易總量對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響,而更多的將視角轉(zhuǎn)移到貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的關(guān)系,從總量到結(jié)構(gòu)的研究路徑表明學(xué)術(shù)界的研究視角正在不斷深入。本文將貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的互動關(guān)系問題作為研究的主題,目的在于找出兩者的良性互動路徑,提出基于產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級的貿(mào)易政策。 首先,本文運用產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)濟學(xué)和國際貿(mào)易學(xué)的相關(guān)理論,界定了貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)換與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級的相關(guān)概念和內(nèi)涵。在此基礎(chǔ)上分析當前國內(nèi)外相關(guān)研究的現(xiàn)狀,本文發(fā)現(xiàn)國內(nèi)學(xué)者對中國貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的演進過程、互動機制、內(nèi)在聯(lián)系的研究,多局限于單一的結(jié)構(gòu)或?qū)哟?并沒有將其作為一項系統(tǒng)工程；其中研究對外貿(mào)易貨物商品結(jié)構(gòu)、方式結(jié)構(gòu)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)相關(guān)關(guān)系的文獻較多,針對服務(wù)商品結(jié)構(gòu)、模式結(jié)構(gòu)、區(qū)域結(jié)構(gòu)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)關(guān)系的文獻幾乎沒有。并且?guī)缀跛形墨I都將產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)定義為三次產(chǎn)業(yè)占國民生產(chǎn)總值的比重,結(jié)合中國實際情況,本文認為產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化應(yīng)該至少包含兩個層面的意思,一方面是產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的軟化,另一方面是工業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)深化。由此得出值得本文深入研究的主題是：將對外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)作為一項系統(tǒng)工程研究其與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的關(guān)系。本文從四種角度探討貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的互動機理,即商品結(jié)構(gòu)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的互動機理、方式結(jié)構(gòu)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的互動機理、區(qū)域結(jié)構(gòu)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的互動機理、模式結(jié)構(gòu)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的互動機理, 其次,本文描述了1985-2012年我國外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的演進過程。在貨物商品結(jié)構(gòu)中,雖然工業(yè)制成品的在出口和進口中皆已占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位,但是我國出口的機械及運輸設(shè)備的附加值遠低于發(fā)達國家水平；在服務(wù)商品結(jié)構(gòu)中,傳統(tǒng)服務(wù)項目仍然占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位,新興服務(wù)項目在服務(wù)貿(mào)易出口總額中所占比重仍然較�。粚ν赓Q(mào)易方式結(jié)構(gòu)依舊是一般貿(mào)易與加工貿(mào)易并行,加工貿(mào)易比重占據(jù)半壁江山；分析對外貿(mào)易區(qū)域結(jié)構(gòu),中國的進出口市場集中程度高,沒有實現(xiàn)貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)略多元化；測算對外貿(mào)易模式結(jié)構(gòu),初級產(chǎn)品的進出口仍然主要以產(chǎn)業(yè)間貿(mào)易模式為主,工業(yè)制成品的進出口以產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易模式為主,但產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易水平仍然不高。此外,與世界產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)演進的一般規(guī)律相比,我國第一產(chǎn)業(yè)的產(chǎn)值比重大幅低于標準模式中第一產(chǎn)業(yè)相應(yīng)的數(shù)值,第二產(chǎn)業(yè)的產(chǎn)值比重大幅高于標準模式中對應(yīng)數(shù)值,第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的產(chǎn)值比重低于標準水平。從要素密集度的結(jié)構(gòu)來看,資本密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)在中國工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值的比重持續(xù)上升,但是速度仍然較慢。 再次,本文對貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的互動關(guān)系進行實證檢驗,運用協(xié)整理論、Granger因果關(guān)系檢驗、向量自回歸(VAR)模型以及脈沖響應(yīng)等計量方法。本文采用經(jīng)濟總量中各組成部分的自身增長率變化與占總量份額變化的乘積來反映經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)的變動情況,得出基于結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)指標度量的貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)變化對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的貢獻。本文發(fā)現(xiàn)貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)影響有一定的時滯效應(yīng),其中貨物商品出口結(jié)構(gòu)、服務(wù)商品出口結(jié)構(gòu)、方式出口結(jié)構(gòu)變化對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響較大,而相應(yīng)的進口結(jié)構(gòu)對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變化的貢獻度較小。模式結(jié)構(gòu)、區(qū)域結(jié)構(gòu)對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的互動關(guān)系很弱。 最后,本文不止步于從宏觀視角分析貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)與三次產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)之間的互動關(guān)系,而且從微觀視角研究貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)換對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級的影響。在將擴展的出口內(nèi)生經(jīng)濟增長模型引申到一般對數(shù)模型后,本文分別考察貨物商品貿(mào)易對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響、服務(wù)商品貿(mào)易對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響、方式貿(mào)易對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響、區(qū)域貿(mào)易對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響。檢驗結(jié)果說明：第一、可以通過減少初級產(chǎn)品出口額實現(xiàn)工業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)深化；第二、可以通過增加新興服務(wù)進口額使得產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)軟化度增加,而且增加新興服務(wù)的進口額和出口額,可以使得工業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)更加深度化；第三、可以通過減少加工貿(mào)易進口額和加工貿(mào)易的出口額使得工業(yè)化程度提高；第四、為了實現(xiàn)工業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)深度化的目標,應(yīng)該減少中國同第一大貿(mào)易伙伴之間的進出口總額；第五、目前的產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易規(guī)模還會導(dǎo)致工業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)深度化下降。 本文最終歸納了基于產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)軟化和工業(yè)程度深化的貿(mào)易政策有：第一、對初級產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易領(lǐng)域?qū)嵤┫拗菩再Q(mào)易政策,發(fā)展具有高技術(shù)含量的工業(yè)制成品貿(mào)易；第二、漸進式擴大服務(wù)貿(mào)易開放,重點發(fā)展新興服務(wù)業(yè),改造傳統(tǒng)服務(wù)業(yè)；第三、發(fā)展一般貿(mào)易和其他貿(mào)易方式,取消加工貿(mào)易政策與一般貿(mào)易政策中的非對稱性；第四、實施區(qū)域多元化戰(zhàn)略,積極融入?yún)^(qū)域性貿(mào)易組織；第五、采用產(chǎn)品差異化策略,從垂直型產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)樗叫彤a(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has undergone tremendous changes. China's industrial development and trade pattern have shown great progress and also accompanied by structural imbalances. The imbalance of foreign trade structure caused by the imbalance of industrial structure and the latter's reverse strengthening effect on the former are further solidified in China. In this global financial crisis, China's export oriented industry has been badly hit, and it has also become the main target of the implementation of the "two anti policy" in many developed countries. China's internal and external economic structural imbalances need to be solved, especially the restructuring of the foreign trade structure and industrial structure. It is an important measure to reduce trade friction, avoid middle income trap and achieve sustainable development of industry and economy.
In the case of the change of the economic development mode and the international environment, how should we correctly view and evaluate the interaction relationship between China's foreign trade structure and industrial structure? What kind of trade strategy and industrial policy should be chosen in the journey to the world economic power to realize the foreign trade knot? Through consulting literature, it is found that more and more scholars are not limited to the study of the impact of the total amount of trade on the industrial structure, and more from the angle of view to the relationship between the trade structure and the industrial structure, from the total to the structure. The path shows that the research perspective of the academic circle is constantly deepening. This paper takes the issue of the interaction between the trade structure and the industrial structure as the subject of the research, and aims to find out the positive interaction path of the two, and put forward the trade policy based on the upgrading of the industrial structure.
First, based on the related theories of industrial economics and international trade, this paper defines the related concepts and connotations of trade structure transformation and industrial structure upgrading. On the basis of this, this paper analyzes the current status of related research at home and abroad. This paper finds that domestic scholars have the evolution process of China's trade structure and industrial structure, interaction mechanism, and internal connection. The study of a department is mostly limited to a single structure or level, and has not taken it as a systematic project; there are many literature on the relationship between the structure of goods and the structure of goods, the structure of the goods and the industrial structure of foreign trade goods, and almost no literature on the relationship between the structure of service goods, the pattern structure, the regional structure and the industrial structure. In the literature, the industrial structure is defined as the proportion of the three industry to the gross national product. Based on the actual situation in China, this paper holds that the optimization of industrial structure should contain at least two levels of meaning. On the one hand, the industrial structure is softened and the other is the deepening of industrial structure. The relationship between foreign trade structure and industrial structure is a systematic project. This paper discusses the interaction mechanism of trade structure and industrial structure from four angles, that is, the interaction mechanism of commodity structure and industrial structure, the interaction mechanism of mode structure and industrial structure, the interaction mechanism of regional structure and industrial structure, pattern structure and industrial structure. The interaction mechanism of structure,
Secondly, this paper describes the evolution of the foreign trade structure and industrial structure of our country for 1985-2012 years. In the goods commodity structure, although the industrial product has occupied the dominant position in the export and import, the additional value of the export machinery and transportation equipment is far lower than the state level of the country; in the service commodity structure, the traditional clothing is used. The project still occupies the dominant position, and the proportion of emerging services in the total export trade is still small; the structure of foreign trade is still parallel to general trade and processing trade, and the proportion of processing trade occupies half of the country; it analyzes the regional structure of foreign trade and the high concentration of China's import and export market and the lack of realization. The export and import and export of primary products are mainly based on the mode of inter industry trade, and the import and export of industrial products is dominated by intra industry trade mode, but the level of intra industry trade is still not high. In addition, the production of the first industry in China is compared with the general law of the evolution of the world industrial structure. The proportion of the value is significantly lower than the corresponding value of the first industry in the standard model. The proportion of the output value of the second industry is significantly higher than the corresponding value in the standard model. The proportion of the output value of the third industry is lower than the standard. Slow.
Thirdly, this paper empirically examines the interaction relationship between trade structure and industrial structure, uses cointegration theory, Granger causality test, vector autoregression (VAR) model and impulse response measurement methods. This paper uses the product of the growth rate of each component of the economic aggregate to reflect the economic knot of the change of the total amount of the total amount. The paper finds that the trade structure has a certain time lag effect on the industrial structure, in which the export structure of goods goods, the export structure of service commodity, the change of mode export structure have great influence on the industrial structure, and corresponding to the industrial structure. The contribution of import structure to the change of industrial structure is relatively small. The interaction between regional structure and industrial structure is very weak.
Finally, this paper analyzes the interaction between the trade structure and the three industrial structure from a macro perspective, and studies the influence of the trade structure transformation on the industrial structure upgrading from the micro perspective. After extending the extended export endogenous economic growth model to the general logarithmic model, this paper examines the goods commodity trade to the industry respectively. The influence of structure, the influence of service commodity trade on the industrial structure, the influence of mode trade on the industrial structure, the influence of regional trade on the industrial structure. The test results show that first, the industrial structure can be deepened by reducing the export of primary products; second, the industrial structure can be softened through increasing the import of new services. The increase in degree, and the increase of the import and export of emerging services can make the industrial structure more deep; third, the degree of industrialization can be increased by reducing the import of processing trade and the export of processing trade; fourth, in order to achieve the goal of deepening the industrial structure, China should reduce the number of China's largest trading partners. The total volume of imports and exports between the two countries; fifth, the current scale of intra industry trade will also lead to a decline in the depth of industrial structure.
This article finally summarizes the trade policies based on the softening of industrial structure and the deepening of industrial degree: first, the implementation of restrictive trade policies in the field of primary product trade and the development of industrial manufactured goods with high technical content; second, the gradual expansion of the opening of service trade, the development of the new service industry and the transformation of the traditional service industry; Three, develop general trade and other ways of trade, eliminate the asymmetry in the policy of processing trade and general trade policy; fourth, implement regional diversification strategy, and actively integrate into regional trade organizations; fifth, adopt product differentiation strategy, from vertical intra industry trade to horizontal intra industry trade.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海社會科學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F752;F121.3

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1 陳虹;中國對外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的關(guān)系研究[D];吉林大學(xué);2011年

2 蔣庚華;中國服務(wù)貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)問題研究[D];東北師范大學(xué);2011年

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