本文選題：河北省 + 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)　； 參考：《廣西師范大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：在三次工業(yè)革命之后,全球人口急劇增加,經(jīng)濟(jì)快速發(fā)展。人類從大自然獲取越來(lái)越多的資源,向大自然丟棄的廢物也越來(lái)越多,大自然被改造的程度越來(lái)越大,以致破壞了原有的生態(tài)平衡,造成了非常嚴(yán)重的環(huán)境污染問(wèn)題。眾多嚴(yán)重污染事件在全球各國(guó)發(fā)生并危害當(dāng)?shù)鼐用褚约班弴?guó)人民的生命健康,造成非常慘重的后果。“三廢”、農(nóng)藥污染、噪音污染、光化學(xué)污染等各類污染物越來(lái)越嚴(yán)重,導(dǎo)致新鮮的空氣、純凈的水、安寧的環(huán)境、大氣和海洋的化學(xué)組成成分都已成了稀缺資源,并具有了直接經(jīng)濟(jì)價(jià)值。環(huán)境質(zhì)量如空氣質(zhì)量、水質(zhì)量等惡化引發(fā)的一系列災(zāi)難性問(wèn)題已引起了世界各國(guó)的關(guān)注,它阻礙了全球人們的日常生活和經(jīng)濟(jì)的可持續(xù)健康發(fā)展,還密切關(guān)系到全人類和子孫后代的共同長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)利益。 自20世紀(jì)70年代起,聯(lián)合國(guó)及其相關(guān)機(jī)構(gòu)就召開(kāi)了一系列國(guó)際會(huì)議,探討人類需要面對(duì)和亟待解決的環(huán)境污染問(wèn)題。這些頻繁的大型國(guó)際會(huì)議和活動(dòng),說(shuō)明70年代以來(lái)環(huán)境問(wèn)題已成為全球各國(guó)共同關(guān)注的一個(gè)非常重要的社會(huì)、經(jīng)濟(jì)、技術(shù)問(wèn)題。我國(guó)也同樣面臨著嚴(yán)重的環(huán)境污染問(wèn)題,改革開(kāi)放以來(lái)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速增長(zhǎng)主要建立在自然資源和非再生能源的高消耗基礎(chǔ)上。過(guò)度、低效地使用自然資源來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,即經(jīng)濟(jì)粗放式增長(zhǎng),造成了我國(guó)生態(tài)環(huán)境的日趨惡化,使得經(jīng)濟(jì)與環(huán)境相斥。這些環(huán)境污染和生態(tài)被嚴(yán)重破壞的問(wèn)題造成我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和民生建設(shè)道路上的巨大阻礙。河北省的環(huán)境污染問(wèn)題在全國(guó)最嚴(yán)重,研究河北省的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與環(huán)境污染關(guān)系,具有實(shí)際意義。本文選取1995年到2011年河北省經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)和環(huán)境指標(biāo)的時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù),建立雙變量VAR模型,并通過(guò)廣義脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)和Granger因果檢驗(yàn),對(duì)河北省近年來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和環(huán)境污染之間長(zhǎng)期動(dòng)態(tài)的相互作用機(jī)制進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。 本文選取人均GDP作為經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo),選取工業(yè)廢水排放量、工業(yè)固體廢物排放量、二氧化硫排放量作為污染指標(biāo),所建立的VAR模型為包括以上三個(gè)環(huán)境污染指標(biāo)和人均GDP的雙變量系統(tǒng)。進(jìn)行廣義脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)分析,首先要對(duì)所選取的時(shí)序變量進(jìn)行平穩(wěn)性檢驗(yàn),即單位根檢驗(yàn),廣義脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)分析用來(lái)檢測(cè)河北省經(jīng)濟(jì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與環(huán)境污染之間長(zhǎng)期的雙向動(dòng)態(tài)的影響機(jī)制；通過(guò)協(xié)整分析可判斷經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和各項(xiàng)污染指標(biāo)之間是否存在協(xié)整關(guān)系；Granger因果檢驗(yàn)用來(lái)確定經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與環(huán)境污染的兩個(gè)變量是否為彼此變化的原因,兩者之間是否有因果關(guān)系。廣義脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)的沖擊響應(yīng)結(jié)果表明：河北省的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)是影響環(huán)境污染的一個(gè)重要因素；另一方面,環(huán)境污染也會(huì)阻礙著經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,但具有一定的滯后效應(yīng)；協(xié)整分析結(jié)果表明,河北省經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和環(huán)境污染指標(biāo)之間存在長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定的協(xié)整關(guān)系；Granger因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果表明,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)是環(huán)境污染加劇的單方面重要原因,但環(huán)境污染顯然不是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的原因。研究河北省環(huán)境污染與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展之間的相互影響關(guān)系,進(jìn)而為河北省經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與治理環(huán)境污染問(wèn)題提供可借鑒的建議,對(duì)提升河北省的綜合實(shí)力具有重大的理論意義和實(shí)踐意義。
[Abstract]:After the three industrial revolution, the global population increased dramatically, the rapid development of the economy. People get more and more from nature to nature resources, discarded waste is also increasing, the transformation of the nature is more and more, resulting in destruction of the original ecological balance, resulting in the serious environmental pollution problems. Many serious pollution the event in the world and harm local residents and neighbors of the life and health of people, causing very serious consequences. "Three wastes", pesticide pollution, noise pollution, photochemical pollution of various pollutants is more and more serious, leading to fresh air, pure water, peaceful environment, chemical composition of the atmosphere and oceans have become the scarcity of resources, and has a direct economic value. The environmental quality such as air quality, water quality deterioration caused by a series of disastrous problem has caused the world. Note that it hinders the global people's daily life and economic sustainable development, but also closely related to the human offspring and the long-term common interests.
Since 1970s, the United Nations and its related agencies have held a series of international conferences on human need to face and solve the problem of environmental pollution. These frequent large-scale international conferences and activities that environmental problems since 70s has become a very important social concern, the world economy, China's technical problems. It is also facing serious environmental pollution problems, since the reform and opening up, China's rapid economic growth is mainly based on high consumption of basic natural resources and non renewable energy. Excessive, inefficient use of natural resources to achieve economic development, namely the extensive economic growth in our country, caused the deterioration of ecological environment, the the economic and environmental repulsion. These environmental pollution and ecological damage problems caused by the huge obstacle path of China's economic development and people's livelihood construction in Hebei province. The most serious environmental pollution problems in the country, the research of Hebei Province Economic Development and environmental pollution, which has practical significance. This paper selects the time series data of 1995 to 2011 of Hebei Province Economic and environmental indexes, a bivariate VAR model, and the generalized impulse response function and Granger causality test in Hebei Province, the interaction mechanism between the economic growth and environmental pollution in recent years, the long-term dynamic empirical analysis.
This paper selects GDP per capita as economic indicators, selection of industrial wastewater emissions, industrial solid waste emissions, sulfur dioxide emissions as a pollution index, the established VAR model for bivariate system includes more than three environmental pollution indicators and GDP per capita. The generalized impulse response function analysis, first of all to the stationary test of the timing variables the selected, namely the unit root test, generalized impulse response function analysis is used to detect the influence mechanism of bidirectional dynamic long-term between Hebei Province Economic Growth and environmental pollution; through cointegration analysis can be the existence of cointegration relationship between the judgment of economic growth and pollution indicators; Granger causality test is used to determine the economic development and the two variables environmental pollution is due to each other changes, whether there is a causal relationship between the two. The generalized impulse response function of the impulse response results table The economic growth of Hebei province is an important factor in the impact of environmental pollution; on the other hand, environmental pollution will also hinder the development of economy, but has a certain lag effect; cointegration analysis results show that there is a long-run cointegration relationship between the economic growth of Hebei province and the environmental pollution index; Granger causality the test results show that economic growth is an important reason for unilateral worsening environmental pollution, but environmental pollution is not the cause of economic growth in Hebei province. The interaction between environmental pollution and economic development of relations, so as to provide suggestions for Hebei economic development and environmental pollution problems, it has great theoretical significance and practical significance to enhance the comprehensive strength of Hebei province.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣西師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：X22;F124

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