本文選題：經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)　切入點(diǎn)：產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)　出處：《重慶大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)作為總量經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的具體表現(xiàn)形式一直是主流經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)界重點(diǎn)關(guān)注的課題。構(gòu)成總量經(jīng)濟(jì)的產(chǎn)業(yè)部門結(jié)構(gòu)及其變動(dòng)規(guī)律，在經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論中被認(rèn)為是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的周期性波動(dòng)所致。國內(nèi)外學(xué)者關(guān)于經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)的相關(guān)性研究中，都從不同程度上表明了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的周期性波動(dòng)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)的相關(guān)性。本文以經(jīng)典經(jīng)濟(jì)理論和國內(nèi)外具有代表性的相關(guān)研究為基礎(chǔ)，將理論與實(shí)證研究相結(jié)合，探討我國經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)的相關(guān)關(guān)系。 首先，本文通過文獻(xiàn)整理，分析了經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)的相關(guān)性的國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀，發(fā)現(xiàn)國內(nèi)外學(xué)者的研究都緊跟工業(yè)化與結(jié)構(gòu)演進(jìn)的進(jìn)程。在此基礎(chǔ)上，歸納出經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)的相關(guān)基礎(chǔ)理論，本文將重點(diǎn)參考經(jīng)濟(jì)周期長波理論、經(jīng)濟(jì)周期階段理論、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)演進(jìn)理論。 其次，分別討論我國經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)的衡量以及產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)的衡量問題。本文基于前期理論研究給出了經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)的概念，進(jìn)而選取合適的測度指標(biāo)對兩者進(jìn)行量化分析。就經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)而言，本文從宏觀上劃分了以我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率衡量的經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)階段；而對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)的研究，主要測度了我國宏觀三次產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)，并對描述分析了其基本變動(dòng)特征。 接著，本文在整體趨勢研究的視角下，對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)與三次產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)的相關(guān)性做實(shí)證研究。采用直觀描述和回歸計(jì)量相結(jié)合的方式初步探討我國三次產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長波動(dòng)的影響，，進(jìn)而建立兩組指標(biāo)對經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)的因果關(guān)系進(jìn)行實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。結(jié)果表明，我國經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)之間存在顯著的互動(dòng)聯(lián)系。 最后，本文以我國工業(yè)部門產(chǎn)業(yè)細(xì)分為例，進(jìn)一步分析了我國經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)與細(xì)分后的產(chǎn)業(yè)部門內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)之間的相關(guān)性。本文在對我國工業(yè)部門細(xì)分產(chǎn)業(yè)進(jìn)行重新劃分的基礎(chǔ)上，測度我國工業(yè)部門產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)情況，進(jìn)而分別描述我國改革開放后經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)階段中工業(yè)部門產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)情況，并最終通過向量自回歸模型（VAR）對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)與工業(yè)部門產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)的內(nèi)在聯(lián)系做實(shí)證分析。結(jié)果表明，我國基礎(chǔ)工業(yè)部門中的資源壟斷產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)是經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)的前置信號(hào)，而食品工業(yè)、紡織工業(yè)等主要消費(fèi)品工業(yè)部門在國民經(jīng)濟(jì)中的比例結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)對經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)具有時(shí)滯效應(yīng)。歸納總結(jié)全篇研究結(jié)論后，本文從與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)的互動(dòng)關(guān)系上提出了推動(dòng)我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長平穩(wěn)波動(dòng)的政策建議。
[Abstract]:As the concrete manifestation of gross economic growth, business cycle fluctuation has always been a major concern of mainstream economists.The industrial sector structure and its changing law of gross economy are considered to be caused by the cyclical fluctuation of economic growth in economic theory.In the research on the correlation between economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change, domestic and foreign scholars show the correlation between the cyclical fluctuation of economic growth and the change of industrial structure to varying degrees.On the basis of classical economic theory and domestic and foreign representative research, this paper combines theory with empirical research to explore the relationship between the fluctuation of economic cycle and the change of industrial structure in China.First of all, this paper analyzes the domestic and foreign research status of the correlation between the economic cycle fluctuation and the industrial structure change, and finds that the research of domestic and foreign scholars are closely following the process of industrialization and structural evolution.On this basis, the basic theories of economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change are summed up. This paper mainly refers to the long wave theory of economic cycle, the theory of stage of economic cycle, and the theory of evolution of industrial structure.Secondly, the measurement of economic cycle fluctuation and the change of industrial structure are discussed respectively.Based on the previous theoretical research, this paper gives the concepts of economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change, and then selects appropriate measurement indicators to analyze them quantitatively.As far as the economic cycle fluctuation is concerned, this paper divides the period of the economic cycle fluctuation based on the economic growth rate of our country macroscopically, and the research on the change of industrial structure mainly measures the change of the macro three times industrial structure of our country.And the basic variation characteristics of the description are analyzed.Then, from the perspective of overall trend research, this paper makes an empirical study on the correlation between the fluctuation of economic cycle and the change of tertiary industrial structure in China.This paper discusses the effect of three industrial structure changes on the fluctuation of economic growth by using the combination of visual description and regression measurement, and then establishes two sets of indicators to test the causality between the economic cycle fluctuation and the industrial structure change.The results show that there is a significant interaction between the fluctuation of economic cycle and the change of industrial structure.Finally, taking the industrial subdivision of China's industrial sector as an example, this paper further analyzes the correlation between the fluctuation of the economic cycle and the internal structural changes of the industrial sector after the segmentation.On the basis of redividing the subdivided industries of China's industrial sector, this paper measures the changes of industrial structure in China's industrial sector, and then describes the changes of industrial sector's industrial structure in the period of economic cycle fluctuation after China's reform and opening up.Finally, through the vector autoregressive model (VAR), the paper makes an empirical analysis of the internal relationship between the fluctuation of the economic cycle and the industrial structure change in the industrial sector in China.The results show that the structural change of resource monopoly industry in China's basic industrial sector is the leading signal of economic cycle fluctuation, while the food industry,The change of proportion structure in the national economy of the textile industry and other major consumer industries has a time-delay effect on the economic cycle fluctuation.After summing up the conclusions of the whole study, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to promote the steady fluctuation of China's economic growth from the interactive relationship with the change of industrial structure.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F124.8;F121.3

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