本文選題：地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估　切入點(diǎn)：區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)　出處：《上海師范大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：我國(guó)各省的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展存在由空間外溢帶來(lái)的網(wǎng)絡(luò)增長(zhǎng)效應(yīng),同時(shí),地方政府債務(wù)償還風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也存在于區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)中。處于經(jīng)濟(jì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)中的地方政府實(shí)際上面臨著兩個(gè)需要平衡的目標(biāo):防范地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。因此,研究地方經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與地方政府債務(wù)之間的作用關(guān)系,解讀我國(guó)地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)并對(duì)其進(jìn)行評(píng)估,已成為我國(guó)構(gòu)建和諧社會(huì)需要探討的現(xiàn)實(shí)問(wèn)題。本文首先以包含兩地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)體為研究出發(fā)點(diǎn),引入?yún)^(qū)域生產(chǎn)函數(shù),對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)體中區(qū)域的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展作簡(jiǎn)單分析,從而引出我國(guó)31省份這一經(jīng)濟(jì)體的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展存在網(wǎng)絡(luò)效應(yīng)這一現(xiàn)狀。進(jìn)一步,以KMV模型為框架,推導(dǎo)出區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)聯(lián)背景下的地方政府債務(wù)違約率的理論分析方程,并分析其影響因子。然后,分別利用靜態(tài)空間面板模型和動(dòng)態(tài)空間面板模型對(duì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)中的地方經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與地方政府債務(wù)的關(guān)系進(jìn)行實(shí)證對(duì)比分析,得出相關(guān)結(jié)論,同時(shí)也基于實(shí)證分析視角證明了基于地方政府債務(wù)出發(fā)的區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)效應(yīng)的存在。在此基礎(chǔ)上結(jié)合數(shù)據(jù)的刪失性特征,采用生存分析對(duì)地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的評(píng)估做了實(shí)證研究。進(jìn)一步,將網(wǎng)絡(luò)空間效應(yīng)作為區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)中地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的研究出發(fā)點(diǎn),深入分析得出考慮空間脆弱性下的Cox模型是較好的實(shí)證模型選擇,并對(duì)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)生存分析和該模型的實(shí)證結(jié)果作了簡(jiǎn)要對(duì)比分析。最后,凝練出本文的主要結(jié)論,包括:各地政府債務(wù)規(guī)模差異較大,中央應(yīng)合理調(diào)控各地方政府債務(wù),切勿“一刀切”切斷地方政府債務(wù)融資渠道;地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與地方政府債務(wù)發(fā)展“齊頭并進(jìn)”,導(dǎo)致兩者之間空間扭曲化現(xiàn)象嚴(yán)重;區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展存在空間網(wǎng)絡(luò)效應(yīng),且空間網(wǎng)絡(luò)效應(yīng)下地方政府債務(wù)對(duì)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展存在倒U型關(guān)系,故政府應(yīng)合理界定債務(wù)閾值,加強(qiáng)債務(wù)限額體制的合理構(gòu)建。不考慮地方政府主觀上不愿意償還和政府的預(yù)算軟約束現(xiàn)象,僅從地方政府的償還能力出發(fā)的研究結(jié)果表明我國(guó)地方政府自2010年起不發(fā)生債務(wù)違約的概率已降至10%。區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)(空間網(wǎng)絡(luò))效應(yīng)背景下經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率與地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)存在同方向作用關(guān)系,經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展速度過(guò)快的地區(qū)的政府債務(wù)違約率高于經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展速度低下的地區(qū)的政府債務(wù)違約概率�？紤]空間效應(yīng)和不考慮空間效應(yīng)的研究結(jié)果對(duì)比表明各協(xié)變量對(duì)地方政府發(fā)生債務(wù)違約的時(shí)間的影響都發(fā)生了變化�；趯�(shí)證角度,本文通過(guò)隨機(jī)效應(yīng)方差的后驗(yàn)均值的變化和DIC準(zhǔn)則的評(píng)估驗(yàn)證了空間脆弱性的Cox模型更適合地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估的問(wèn)題研究。進(jìn)一步,本文提出了兩點(diǎn)研究方向,一是基于區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的視角探究地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),二是探討新常態(tài)背景下地方政府債務(wù)資金運(yùn)動(dòng)效應(yīng)機(jī)制帶來(lái)的地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的新變化是怎樣的趨勢(shì)。
[Abstract]:The economic development of the provinces in China has the network growth effect brought by the spatial spillover, and the risk of local government debt repayment also exists in the regional economic network.In fact, the local government in the economic network faces two goals that need to be balanced: to prevent the risk of local government debt and to stabilize economic growth.Therefore, studying the relationship between local economic development and local government debt, interpreting and evaluating the risk of local government debt has become a realistic problem to be discussed in constructing a harmonious society in our country.In this paper, the regional production function is introduced to analyze the regional economic development in the two regions.This leads to the existence of network effect in the economic development of 31 provinces in China.Furthermore, taking the KMV model as the framework, the theoretical analysis equation of the default rate of local government debt in the context of regional economic correlation is derived, and its influencing factors are analyzed.Then, the static spatial panel model and the dynamic spatial panel model are used to analyze the relationship between the local economic development and the local government debt in the network, and the relevant conclusions are drawn.At the same time, it also proves the existence of regional economic network effect based on local government debt.On the basis of this, the author makes an empirical study on the assessment of local government debt risk by means of survival analysis combined with the censored characteristics of the data.Furthermore, taking the cyberspace effect as the starting point of the research on the local government debt risk in the regional economic network, it is concluded that the Cox model under the consideration of spatial vulnerability is a better choice of empirical model.The standard survival analysis is compared with the empirical results of the model.Finally, the main conclusions of this paper are summarized as follows: the scale of local government debt varies greatly, the central government should regulate and control the local government debt reasonably, and do not cut off the financing channel of local government debt in a one-size-fits-all manner;Regional economic development and local government debt development "go hand in hand", leading to the serious phenomenon of spatial distortion between the two, the regional economic development has the effect of spatial network.Under the effect of spatial network, the debt of local government has a reverse U-type relationship to the development of regional economy, so the government should define the threshold of debt reasonably and strengthen the reasonable construction of debt quota system.Not taking into account the subjective reluctance of local governments to repay and the soft budgetary constraints of the government, only the research results from the ability of local governments to repay show that the probability of local governments not defaulting on their debts has been reduced to 10% since 2010.Under the background of the regional economic network (spatial network) effect, the economic growth rate and the local government debt risk have the same direction function relation.The default rate of government debt is higher in areas where the economy is growing too fast than in areas where the economy is developing at a low rate.The comparison of the results considering spatial effects and those without spatial effects shows that the influence of covariables on the time when local governments default on their debts has changed.Based on the empirical analysis, this paper verifies that the Cox model of spatial vulnerability is more suitable for local government debt risk assessment through the change of posterior mean of random effect variance and the evaluation of DIC criterion.Further, this paper puts forward two research directions, one is to explore the risk of local government debt from the perspective of regional economics.The second is to explore the new trend of local government debt risk caused by the mechanism of local government debt fund movement under the background of the new normal.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F127;F812.5

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