本文選題：東盟　切入點(diǎn)：政府債務(wù)　出處：《廣西大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：在世界經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇放緩、歐債危機(jī)的陰霾尚未散去的背景下,東盟的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長也出現(xiàn)減緩的跡象,部分東盟國家政府債務(wù)規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)大,其債務(wù)風(fēng)險問題多次引起國際社會關(guān)注。而東盟地區(qū)國家作為我國的近鄰,和我國不僅在人員來往上關(guān)系密切,隨著中國-東盟自貿(mào)區(qū)建設(shè)的不斷深入推進(jìn),東盟國家和我國在經(jīng)濟(jì)上的聯(lián)系也將更加密切,東盟國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)及政府債務(wù)的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r將對我國對外投資及貿(mào)易產(chǎn)生重大影響。本文將從政府債務(wù)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的相關(guān)理論出發(fā),首先對已有的相關(guān)研究成果進(jìn)行梳理、回顧和總結(jié),再利用BvD數(shù)據(jù)庫提供的數(shù)據(jù)從債務(wù)規(guī)模、債務(wù)結(jié)構(gòu)等方面對東盟國家政府債務(wù)現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行分析,并初步評估其風(fēng)險現(xiàn)狀。然后選取東盟國家2008-2015年的政府債務(wù)及經(jīng)濟(jì)增長相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),通過引入政府債務(wù)率的二次項(xiàng)構(gòu)建門檻效應(yīng),建立動態(tài)面板模型從經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的視角來探究東盟國家政府債務(wù)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間的關(guān)系,并嘗試估計東盟國家最優(yōu)政府債務(wù)規(guī)模。研究結(jié)果表明:從政府債務(wù)對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的角度來看,東盟國家政府債務(wù)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間存在倒”U”型關(guān)系,其最優(yōu)政府債務(wù)規(guī)模在70%-90%之間。當(dāng)政府債務(wù)率低于這一比例時,政府債務(wù)對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的邊際作用為正;反之,其邊際作用則為負(fù)。進(jìn)一步研究發(fā)現(xiàn)東盟國家政府外債與其經(jīng)濟(jì)增長同樣存在倒“U”型關(guān)系,測算出其最優(yōu)政府外債率為20.85%。而從東盟國家政府債務(wù)現(xiàn)狀來看,大部分國家政府債務(wù)規(guī)模均在最優(yōu)規(guī)模以下,因此東盟國家可通過適當(dāng)提高政府債務(wù)規(guī)模來促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。最后,本文將基于前文研究結(jié)果,對東盟地區(qū)國家政府債務(wù)管理及經(jīng)濟(jì)增長提出一些政策建議。
[Abstract]:With the world economic recovery slowing and the gloom of the European debt crisis not over, ASEAN's economic growth has also shown signs of slowing down. Some ASEAN countries' government debt has been expanding, and its debt risk has attracted international attention for many times.As a close neighbor of our country, ASEAN countries and China not only have close relations in personnel exchanges, but also have closer economic ties with China as the construction of the China-ASEAN Free Trade area continues to deepen.The economic and government debt development of ASEAN countries will have a great impact on China's foreign investment and trade.Based on the theory of government debt and economic growth, this paper reviews and summarizes the existing research results, and then makes use of the data provided by BvD database to analyze the debt scale.The present situation of ASEAN government debt is analyzed in debt structure, and its risk status is preliminarily evaluated.Then select the relevant data of government debt and economic growth of ASEAN countries from 2008 to 2015, and construct threshold effect by introducing the second term of government debt ratio.A dynamic panel model is established to explore the relationship between government debt and economic growth in ASEAN countries from the perspective of economic growth and to try to estimate the optimal size of government debt in ASEAN countries.The results show that from the point of view of government debt to economic growth, there is an inverted "U" type relationship between government debt and economic growth in ASEAN countries, and the optimal scale of government debt is between 70% and 90%.When the ratio of government debt is lower than this ratio, the marginal effect of government debt on economic growth is positive, whereas the marginal effect of government debt is negative.It is found that the relationship between the government foreign debt and the economic growth of ASEAN countries is inverted "U" type, and the optimum government external debt rate is 20.85.From the current situation of government debt of ASEAN countries, the government debt of most countries is below the optimal scale, so ASEAN countries can promote economic growth by properly increasing the scale of government debt.Finally, based on the previous research results, this paper puts forward some policy recommendations on government debt management and economic growth of ASEAN countries.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣西大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F811.5;F113

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