本文選題：經(jīng)濟收斂　切入點：產(chǎn)業(yè)結構　出處：《石河子大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：近幾年國家進一步重視西部地區(qū)的發(fā)展，各項優(yōu)惠政策逐步出臺，新疆喀什經(jīng)濟特區(qū)、國家級新區(qū)蘭州新區(qū)先后建立。西部地區(qū)得到迅速發(fā)展，經(jīng)濟總量大幅提高，人民生活明顯改善。西北地區(qū)目前正處于加快經(jīng)濟發(fā)展，縮小與東部沿海地區(qū)差距的關鍵時期。但是，西北地區(qū)本身發(fā)展基礎就非常薄弱，是我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展較為落后的地區(qū)之一。在經(jīng)濟增長的同時，一些深層次的矛盾和問題逐漸顯露出來，例如貧富差距增大，地區(qū)發(fā)展不均衡，生態(tài)環(huán)境破壞嚴重等。經(jīng)濟發(fā)展與產(chǎn)業(yè)結構演進總是相互輔襯的。研究產(chǎn)業(yè)結構的變化，，分析當前產(chǎn)業(yè)結構的現(xiàn)狀以及對未來經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的影響，實現(xiàn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結構優(yōu)化和社會經(jīng)濟的可持續(xù)發(fā)展就自然成為當前經(jīng)濟工作的重點內(nèi)容。因此，有必要分析產(chǎn)業(yè)結構是否符合經(jīng)濟發(fā)展要求，提高產(chǎn)業(yè)競爭力優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結構，才能真正實現(xiàn)跨越式發(fā)展。 本文以產(chǎn)業(yè)結構調(diào)整對經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的影響為研究核心點，綜合運用計量經(jīng)濟模型、偏離份額分析、ArcGIS系統(tǒng)和空間分析，以2007年以來西北地區(qū)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展和產(chǎn)業(yè)結構數(shù)據(jù)為基礎，分析了產(chǎn)業(yè)結構合理化和高度化問題、經(jīng)濟收斂和產(chǎn)業(yè)結構偏離份額情況。 首先從產(chǎn)業(yè)結構合理化和高度化的理論內(nèi)涵入手，選擇合適可行的評價方法，分別對西北地區(qū)產(chǎn)業(yè)結構合理化和高度化的水平進行分析。結果表明：在研究階段內(nèi)西北地區(qū)地市級區(qū)域的產(chǎn)業(yè)結構合理化水平都有明顯的提高。但是，各地市的合理化水平都位于1以下，即與標準結構相比還有差距。該區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)結構高度化升級趨勢基本一致，都在向更高層次演變。不同區(qū)域間的相對轉移效應差距明顯，尤其是第二產(chǎn)業(yè)向第三產(chǎn)業(yè)升級的強度存在明顯差異，這也決定了不同地區(qū)的產(chǎn)業(yè)結構高度化之間的差距。 其次，從新古典主義的經(jīng)濟收斂假說開始，通過對西北地區(qū)人均生產(chǎn)總值的σ收斂和β收斂的檢驗，并將空間滯后因素加入分析模型當中，分析了當前階段的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀。σ收斂和β收斂檢驗均成立，即研究時段內(nèi)西北地區(qū)區(qū)域間差異是不斷縮小的，而且地理空間因素對西北地區(qū)經(jīng)濟收斂影響作用非常明顯。 再次，應用偏離份額分析法對比分析了省級和地市級層面上差異。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)西北地區(qū)產(chǎn)業(yè)結構對國民經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展的促進作用較弱，有進一步調(diào)整的需求和空間。各省份結構效果指數(shù)較低，說明沒有產(chǎn)業(yè)結構優(yōu)勢。而且空間聚集效應不顯著，生產(chǎn)總值呈現(xiàn)高-高集聚的縣（市）比例不高，未形成集中連片的優(yōu)勢發(fā)達區(qū)域，區(qū)域間分工合作有待加強。 最后，根據(jù)實證分析的結果，提出對策建議。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the state attaches more importance to the development of the western region, the preferential policies introduced gradually, Xinjiang Kashi Special Economic Zone, national district of Lanzhou New District has established. The western region has developed rapidly, a substantial increase in the total economy, people's lives improved significantly. The northwest region is in the key period of accelerating economic development, narrowing the gap with the eastern coastal areas. However, on the basis of the northwest development itself is very weak, is one of China's economic development is relatively backward areas. In the economic growth at the same time, some deep-seated contradictions and problems have gradually emerged, such as increasing the gap between rich and poor, uneven regional development, serious damage to the ecological environment. The economic development and the evolution of the industrial structure is always each liner. The changes of industry structure, analyzes the current situation of the industrial structure and the influence on the future economic development of the industrial structure Optimization and sustainable development of social economy have become the key contents of current economic work. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze whether the industrial structure is in line with the requirements of economic development, improve industrial competitiveness and optimize industrial structure, so that we can achieve leapfrog development.
In this paper, the adjustment of industrial structure influence on the economic development as the core, the integrated use of econometric model, shift share analysis, analysis of ArcGIS system and space, since 2007 the Northwest Economic Development and industrial structure based on the data analysis of the industrial structure rationalization and sophistication, economic convergence and industrial structure shift share the situation.
First, starting from the theoretical connotation of industrial structure rationalization, selecting the appropriate evaluation method is feasible, were analyzed in the northwestern industrial structure rationalization level. The results show that there are obvious improvement in the level of industrial structure rationalization study period in Northwest Municipal area. However, reasonable the level of each city are located below 1, with a standard structure. There is still a gap between the regional industrial structure upgrading trend is basically the same, are evolving to a higher level. The relative transfer effect between different regions of the gap is obvious, especially there is significant difference between the second industrial upgrading to third industry strength, it also decided the height of industrial structure in different regions of the gap.
Secondly, from the beginning of the neoclassical economic convergence hypothesis, through the test of the northwest region per capita GDP of convergence and convergence, and the spatial lag factors into the analysis model, analyzes the present situation of economic development at present stage. Convergence and convergence test were established, namely the study of regional differences in time in between is shrinking, and the effect of geographic factors on economic convergence in northwest region is very obvious.
Again, share analysis comparative analysis of the provincial and municipal level difference from application. The study found that the development of industrial structure in Northwest China on the national economy to promote the role of weak, further demand and adjust the index space. Each province structure effect is relatively low, indicating that there is no advantage. The industrial structure and the space aggregation effect is not significant, GDP present high high agglomeration county (city) ratio is not high, do not form a contiguous advantage in developed region, inter regional cooperation needs to be strengthened.
Finally, according to the results of the empirical analysis, the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.

【學位授予單位】：石河子大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F121.3;F127

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