本文選題：煤炭市場(chǎng)　切入點(diǎn)：經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展　出處：《西安科技大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：榆林市位于陜西省北部，是我國(guó)重要的煤炭能源基地，被稱為“中國(guó)的科威特”，煤炭經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)值占到了整個(gè)榆林工業(yè)產(chǎn)值的一半，近年來(lái)得益于煤炭市場(chǎng)的繁榮，榆林市經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度每年排在陜西省各市前列。但是進(jìn)入2012年，伴隨著全國(guó)煤炭市場(chǎng)的不景氣，榆林市煤炭市場(chǎng)急轉(zhuǎn)直下，對(duì)榆林經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展帶來(lái)巨大影響。為此，本文在國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)研究現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行綜述的基礎(chǔ)上，采用實(shí)證研究方法，分析了煤炭市場(chǎng)變化對(duì)榆林經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的影響，主要的研究工作與結(jié)論如下： （1）分析了榆林煤炭市場(chǎng)變化情況，對(duì)2006年-2014年榆林市煤炭?jī)r(jià)格季度數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析，構(gòu)建了煤炭?jī)r(jià)格預(yù)測(cè)模型，并對(duì)2015年榆林市煤炭?jī)r(jià)格進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)。 （2）通過(guò)對(duì)2006年-2013年榆林市煤炭?jī)r(jià)格與同期榆林市生產(chǎn)總值、規(guī)模以上工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值、地方財(cái)政收入進(jìn)行趨勢(shì)分析，初步判定榆林市煤炭?jī)r(jià)格波動(dòng)與榆林市生產(chǎn)總值、規(guī)模以上工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值、地方財(cái)政收入存在一定的關(guān)系；進(jìn)而，通過(guò)對(duì)煤炭?jī)r(jià)格與生產(chǎn)總值、規(guī)模以上工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值、地方財(cái)政收入的季度數(shù)據(jù)分析，，得出結(jié)論：煤炭?jī)r(jià)格的波動(dòng)分別能夠解釋生產(chǎn)總值波動(dòng)的23.9%，規(guī)模以上工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值的26.2%，地方財(cái)政收入的19.4%。證實(shí)了榆林市煤炭?jī)r(jià)格波動(dòng)對(duì)榆林市三個(gè)主要經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)存在正相關(guān)關(guān)系。 （3）提出促進(jìn)榆林經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的對(duì)策建議，包括：堅(jiān)定以煤為主的發(fā)展信念不動(dòng)搖；培育大型煤炭企業(yè)集團(tuán)；清理不合理稅費(fèi)，減輕煤企負(fù)擔(dān)；延伸產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈，提升抗風(fēng)險(xiǎn)能力；打通外運(yùn)通道，解決瓶頸制約；促進(jìn)煤炭產(chǎn)業(yè)由依賴資源向依靠科技轉(zhuǎn)變；大力調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)，使產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)更加合理；加強(qiáng)煤炭行業(yè)信息統(tǒng)計(jì)分析，增強(qiáng)對(duì)煤炭經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的預(yù)見(jiàn)性；加大金融對(duì)榆林經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)的支持力度；設(shè)立煤炭?jī)r(jià)格調(diào)控基金。 本文的研究成果對(duì)于政府科學(xué)分析煤炭市場(chǎng)變化對(duì)榆林經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的影響，制定促進(jìn)榆林經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的相關(guān)政策具有一定的參考價(jià)值。
[Abstract]:Located in the northern part of Shaanxi Province, Yulin City is an important coal energy base in China, known as "Kuwait of China." the coal economic output value accounts for half of the industrial output value of the whole Yulin province. In recent years, it has benefited from the prosperity of the coal market. The economic growth rate of Yulin City ranks among the leading cities in Shaanxi Province every year. But in 2012, with the depression of the national coal market, the coal market of Yulin City has turned sharply down, which has a huge impact on the economic development of Yulin City. Based on the review of domestic and foreign related research, this paper analyzes the impact of coal market changes on the economic development of Yulin by using empirical research methods. The main research work and conclusions are as follows:. This paper analyzes the change of coal market in Yulin, analyzes the quarterly data of coal price in Yulin from 2006 to 2014, constructs a coal price forecasting model, and forecasts the coal price in Yulin in 2015. (2) through the trend analysis of the coal price in Yulin city from 2006 to 2013, the GDP of Yulin city, the gross industrial output value above the scale, and the local financial revenue, the fluctuation of coal price and the gross domestic product of Yulin city are preliminarily determined. There is a certain relationship between the total industrial output value above scale and local fiscal revenue. Furthermore, through the analysis of quarterly data on coal price and gross domestic product, gross industrial output value above scale and local fiscal revenue, It is concluded that the fluctuation of coal price can explain the fluctuation of gross domestic product (GDP) 23.9, industrial output value above scale 26.2and local fiscal revenue 19.4. it is proved that the fluctuation of coal price in Yulin has positive correlation with the three main economic indexes of Yulin. 3) put forward countermeasures and suggestions to promote the sustainable economic development of Yulin, including: unshakeable belief in coal-based development; fostering large coal enterprise groups; clearing up unreasonable taxes and fees, lightening the burden of coal enterprises; extending the industrial chain, To promote the ability to resist risks; to open the shipping channels to solve the bottleneck constraints; to promote the coal industry to change from relying on resources to relying on science and technology; to vigorously adjust the industrial structure to make the industrial structure more reasonable; to strengthen the statistical analysis of information in the coal industry, To enhance the predictability of coal economic development; to increase financial support for the economic transformation and upgrading of Yulin; to set up a coal price control fund. The research results of this paper have certain reference value for the government to scientifically analyze the influence of the coal market changes on the economic development of Yulin and to formulate the relevant policies to promote the sustainable development of the economy in Yulin.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F426.21;F127

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