本文選題：農村消費　切入點：經濟增長　出處：《西南大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：我國經濟隨著改革開放三十多年來,已取得了非常顯著的成績。其中,年平均經濟增長率接近10%,國內生產總值也是逐年增加,目前已超過日本,躍居全球第二。國內人民生活水平逐步得到明顯改,,綜合國力進一步加強。消費作為推動經濟增長的“三駕馬車”之一,其巨大貢獻功不可沒,而中央政府也把擴大內需作為緩解國際金融危機的重要途徑。然而與此同時,目前國內消費的結構性失衡,消費需求尤其是農村居民缺乏動力消費,限制了我國經濟的進一步增長。我國龐大的農村人口,至今仍有接近50%的人口長期生活在農村,因此農村消費市場的潛力巨大。結合我國未來農村經濟的發(fā)展,農村消費將是我國未來的經濟增長中非常給力的動力源泉。因此,提高農民收入,改善消費環(huán)境,合理引導農村消費對于擴大內需、促進經濟增長意義重大。本文從消費的理論出發(fā),分析農村消費對經濟增長的影響,同時對制約農村消費市場對經濟增長貢獻率的一些關鍵因素進行了實證分析,提出制約我國農村消費市場對經濟增長貢獻率的根本原因,從而為制定相對應的一些政策提供具有參考價值的意見與建議。 本文主要分為三個部分： 第一部分從消費的理論出發(fā),首先介紹了有關農村消費市場的概念,并在此基礎上分析農村消費市場對經濟增長貢獻率所帶來的影響和作用。 第二部分,在定量分析方面結合了經濟學和統(tǒng)計學的知識,運用Eviews軟件進行計量分析,以1990-2013年的時間序列數(shù)據(jù)為數(shù)據(jù)資源,通過回歸分析法和相關分析法估算了農村消費市場對經濟的貢獻率。通過模型的估算結果找出其中的異同之處,并對比城鎮(zhèn)居民消費市場對經濟的貢獻率的水平,得出我國農村消費市場的貢獻率遠低于城鎮(zhèn)消費市場。 最后,針對農村消費市場對經濟增長貢獻率的不同做出總結,分析研究找到能進一步提高農村消費市場貢獻率的政策與措施。
[Abstract]:With the reform and opening up of China's economy for more than 30 years, China has made very remarkable achievements. Among them, the annual average economic growth rate is close to 10 percent, and the gross domestic product (GDP) has also increased year by year, which has now surpassed that of Japan. As one of the "troika" to promote economic growth, consumption is one of the "troika" to promote economic growth. Meanwhile, the central government also regards expanding domestic demand as an important way to alleviate the international financial crisis. At the same time, however, at the same time, the structural imbalance of domestic consumption, consumer demand, especially rural residents' lack of motivation to consume, It limits the further growth of our economy. Nearly 50% of the population of our country still live in rural areas for a long time. Therefore, the potential of the rural consumer market is enormous. Combined with the development of rural economy in the future, Rural consumption will be a very powerful source of power for China's future economic growth. Therefore, raising farmers' income, improving the consumption environment, and reasonably guiding rural consumption to expand domestic demand, It is of great significance to promote economic growth. This paper, based on the theory of consumption, analyzes the impact of rural consumption on economic growth, and makes an empirical analysis of some key factors that restrict the contribution of rural consumption market to economic growth. The paper puts forward the basic reasons of restricting the contribution rate of rural consumption market to economic growth, thus providing some valuable suggestions for making corresponding policies. This paper is divided into three parts:. The first part introduces the concept of rural consumption market from the theory of consumption, and then analyzes the impact and function of rural consumption market on the contribution rate of economic growth. The second part, combining the knowledge of economics and statistics in quantitative analysis, uses Eviews software to carry on the econometric analysis, taking the time series data from 1990 to 2013 as the data resource. The contribution rate of rural consumer market to economy is estimated by regression analysis and correlation analysis. The similarities and differences are found out by the results of model estimation, and the level of contribution rate of urban consumer market to economy is compared. The contribution rate of rural consumption market is far lower than that of urban consumption market. Finally, according to the different contribution rate of rural consumption market to economic growth, the paper analyzes and studies the policies and measures that can further improve the contribution rate of rural consumption market.
【學位授予單位】：西南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F323.8;F124.1

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