本文選題：對外直接投資　切入點(diǎn)：產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)　出處：《復(fù)旦大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：不同的國家有不同的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),不同的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)通常反映著國家間不同的發(fā)展階段,新的十年,我國舊有依靠投資和出口的發(fā)展模式難以持續(xù),我國的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)中也出現(xiàn)了很多不合理的狀況,如中游一些產(chǎn)業(yè)嚴(yán)重的產(chǎn)能過剩等,資源消耗過多、環(huán)境破壞對經(jīng)濟(jì)的負(fù)面影響也日益顯著,李克強(qiáng)總理上臺后多次強(qiáng)調(diào)了我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型的重要性,同時當(dāng)今中國與世界的經(jīng)濟(jì)聯(lián)系越來越緊密,本文力圖論證一國對外直接投資的大力發(fā)展可以促進(jìn)國內(nèi)的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級,從而我國未來的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展提供一個可以借鑒的視角,選取的分析案例為日本,因?yàn)槿毡镜腛DI遠(yuǎn)大于FDI,而在我國FDI卻比ODI在國際經(jīng)濟(jì)中占據(jù)更重要的地位。本文首先分別介紹了產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和對外直接投資的相關(guān)理論,值得一提的,兩者并非相伴相生的關(guān)系,一國的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)在沒有對外直接投資的時候也會發(fā)生變化,而一國企業(yè)開展對外直接投資時考慮的更多還是自身利潤,對外直接投資的理論分為針對發(fā)達(dá)國家的理論和針對發(fā)展中國家的理論,日本的情況更多的適用于前者,但在經(jīng)濟(jì)迅速飛升的過程中,也帶有很多后者的特色,如日本的加工貿(mào)易采用“引進(jìn)-模仿-出口”的方式。另外,本文還特意介紹了兩位日本學(xué)者對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和對外直接投資的理論研究,包括赤松要的雁行理論和小島清的邊際產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移理論,這兩位學(xué)者的理論基本勾勒了日本對外直接投資發(fā)展的現(xiàn)實(shí)狀況和內(nèi)在規(guī)律,然后本文仔細(xì)研究了對外直接投資和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)兩者之間的互動,分析了一國對外直接投資對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級可能的作用機(jī)理,最后詳細(xì)介紹了日本對外直接投資和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的歷程,并用數(shù)據(jù)做了實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。第二次世界大戰(zhàn)后,日本國家淪為一片廢墟,但僅用了十年時間,日本經(jīng)濟(jì)便恢復(fù)并超過戰(zhàn)前水平,從1951年日本對印度的電纜技術(shù)合作作為日本對外直接投資的起點(diǎn),進(jìn)入七十年代后,日本的ODI數(shù)額迅速從不到10億躍升到超過20億,與時同時,日本國內(nèi)的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)從60年代時的勞動密集型逐步向資本密集型過渡,到70年代后,又開始向技術(shù)密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型,進(jìn)入90年代后,日本國內(nèi)甚至出現(xiàn)了“產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)空心化”的現(xiàn)象。本文用計(jì)量檢驗(yàn)的方法證實(shí)了ODI和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)兩者確實(shí)存在關(guān)系,ODI的發(fā)展在長期內(nèi)會導(dǎo)致第一產(chǎn)業(yè)的比重不斷下降,第三產(chǎn)業(yè)比重的不斷上升,第二產(chǎn)業(yè)在長期內(nèi)同樣會不斷下降,但變化幅度并不劇烈。我國在2012年第一產(chǎn)業(yè)占國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的比重為10.09%,這只是相當(dāng)于日本60年代的水平,我們確信,歷史會不斷重復(fù),因此日本的經(jīng)驗(yàn)可以做為我國未來發(fā)展的借鑒,這也正是本文的寫作初衷。
[Abstract]:Different countries have different industrial structures. Different industrial structures usually reflect different stages of development among countries. In the new decade, China's old development model, which relied on investment and exports, is unsustainable. There are also many unreasonable conditions in the industrial structure of our country, such as serious overcapacity in some industries in the middle reaches, excessive consumption of resources, and the negative impact of environmental damage on the economy. Since Premier Li Keqiang took office, he has repeatedly stressed the importance of the transformation of China's industrial structure. At the same time, today's economic ties between China and the world are getting closer and closer. This paper tries to prove that the development of a country's foreign direct investment can promote the upgrading of domestic industrial structure, thus the future economic development of our country can provide a reference angle of view. The selected case study is Japan. Because the ODI of Japan is much larger than that of the FDI, but the FDI occupies a more important position in the international economy than ODI in our country. Firstly, this paper introduces the relevant theories of industrial structure and foreign direct investment respectively. It is worth mentioning that the two are not concomitant relations. The industrial structure of a country will also change when there is no foreign direct investment, and when a country's enterprises carry out foreign direct investment, they are more concerned with their own profits. The theory of foreign direct investment is divided into theories aimed at developed countries and those directed at developing countries. The situation of Japan is more applicable to the former, but in the process of rapid economic growth, it also has many characteristics of the latter. For example, processing trade in Japan adopts the method of "import, imitation and export". In addition, this paper also introduces two Japanese scholars' theoretical research on industrial structure and foreign direct investment. Including the wild goose travel theory of Pinus koraiensis and the marginal industrial transfer theory of Kojima, the theories of these two scholars basically outline the reality and internal laws of the development of Japanese foreign direct investment. Then, this paper studies the interaction between FDI and industrial structure, and analyzes the possible mechanism of a country's FDI on industrial structure upgrading. Finally, the paper introduces in detail the course of Japan's foreign direct investment and industrial restructuring, and makes an empirical test with the data. After World War II, the Japanese country fell into ruins, but it only took ten years. Japan's economy recovered and exceeded its pre-war level. Since 1951, when Japan's cable technology cooperation with India was the starting point of Japan's foreign direct investment, in the 1970s, Japan's ODI rapidly jumped from less than 1 billion to more than 2 billion. At the same time, Japan's domestic industrial structure gradually transitioned from labor-intensive to capital-intensive in the 1960s, and then began to transition to technology-intensive industrial structure in the 1970s. After entering the 1990s, The phenomenon of "industrial structure hollowing" even appears in Japan. This paper proves by the method of econometric test that the development of ODI and industrial structure can cause the proportion of primary industry to decrease continuously in the long run. As the proportion of the tertiary industry continues to rise, the secondary industry will also continue to decline in the long run, but the change will not be drastic. The proportion of the primary industry in the national economy in China in 2012 was 10.09, which is only the same level as that of Japan in the 1960s. We are sure that, History will continue to repeat, so the Japanese experience can be used as a reference for the future development of our country, which is precisely the original intention of this paper.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F131.3

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本文編號：1667019