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基于習(xí)慣形成理論的面板ELES模型拓展研究

發(fā)布時(shí)間:2018-03-17 13:15

  本文選題:內(nèi)、外部習(xí)慣形成 切入點(diǎn):Hamilton系統(tǒng) 出處:《浙江工商大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文 論文類(lèi)型:學(xué)位論文


【摘要】:本文基于習(xí)慣形成理論中效用取決于有效消費(fèi)(需求)的思想,對(duì)傳統(tǒng)消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)ELES模型進(jìn)行拓展,構(gòu)建出符合當(dāng)前國(guó)內(nèi)形勢(shì)的動(dòng)態(tài)消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)模型,部分解釋了傳統(tǒng)ELES模型基本支出變動(dòng)的原因。在已建立的理論模型基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合中國(guó)二元經(jīng)濟(jì)特征,分別以城鎮(zhèn)、農(nóng)村的不同收入等級(jí)居民為研究對(duì)象,利用系統(tǒng)廣義矩估計(jì)方法對(duì)兩類(lèi)居民的消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)習(xí)慣特征進(jìn)行了較為系統(tǒng)的研究,結(jié)論有: 第一,除其他商品或服務(wù)的7類(lèi)資料消費(fèi)方面,城鄉(xiāng)居民共同表現(xiàn)為顯著的內(nèi)部習(xí)慣形成特征。其中以食品、衣著類(lèi)消費(fèi)表現(xiàn)的最為強(qiáng)烈;交通通信、家庭設(shè)備用品及服務(wù)、醫(yī)療保健及教育娛樂(lè)文化服務(wù)等內(nèi)部習(xí)慣影響緊跟其后,處于中等水平,但相對(duì)于城鎮(zhèn)居民,農(nóng)村居民過(guò)去消費(fèi)帶動(dòng)作用強(qiáng)度有了明顯下降;而居住類(lèi)消費(fèi),城鎮(zhèn)居民的內(nèi)部習(xí)慣形成效應(yīng)很弱,相反農(nóng)村居民卻表現(xiàn)的很強(qiáng)。對(duì)于其他商品或服務(wù)資料,城鎮(zhèn)居民當(dāng)前消費(fèi)也確實(shí)受到過(guò)去消費(fèi)模式的影響,而農(nóng)村居民因購(gòu)買(mǎi)力低下卻未能充分享受這種奢侈資料,不存在慣性消費(fèi)現(xiàn)象。 第二,與收入相對(duì)較高居民互動(dòng)方面,不同收入等級(jí)城鄉(xiāng)居民食品消費(fèi)統(tǒng)計(jì)意義上都不存在攀比性,而醫(yī)療保健及交通通訊外部習(xí)慣形成參數(shù)均正向顯著,表明城鄉(xiāng)低收入等級(jí)居民對(duì)醫(yī)療保健及交通通訊的消費(fèi),越來(lái)越傾向于和高收入等級(jí)居民比較,具有追求高層次消費(fèi)品的意愿和傾向;除以上3類(lèi)商品或服務(wù)外,城鄉(xiāng)居民外部示范作用不同,農(nóng)村居民對(duì)衣著、教育娛樂(lè)文化服務(wù)項(xiàng)的消費(fèi)要受到高收入等級(jí)居民的示范影響,而城鎮(zhèn)居民內(nèi)部卻不存在這種示范性;城鎮(zhèn)居民對(duì)居住、家庭設(shè)備及服務(wù)和其他商品或服務(wù)的消費(fèi)內(nèi)部攀比作用明顯,而農(nóng)村居民內(nèi)部并不存在攀比特性。 第三,本文選取研究層以外的所有群體、研究層上一等級(jí)群體和研究層以上所有群體作為3種不同城鎮(zhèn)居民組合作為示范群體,分別探究其發(fā)揮的內(nèi)部示范性,比較發(fā)現(xiàn)消費(fèi)者總是與收入較高人群做攀比,高于研究對(duì)象收入等級(jí)的所有城鎮(zhèn)居民都會(huì)對(duì)其消費(fèi)行為起到示范作用。 第四,通過(guò)調(diào)整理論模型參數(shù)量化了中國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程中不同收入等級(jí)農(nóng)村居民與城鎮(zhèn)居民的攀比程度,結(jié)果表明除食品和居住外其他消費(fèi)資料都不同程度的呈現(xiàn)出城鄉(xiāng)之間的示范性,其中以醫(yī)療保健、交通通訊及教育娛樂(lè)文化正向示范效應(yīng)最突出,其他商品或服務(wù)則表現(xiàn)為負(fù)向示范作用,而且隨著農(nóng)村收入等級(jí)提高,與城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)攀比傾向越明顯。
[Abstract]:Based on the idea that utility depends on effective consumption (demand) in habit formation theory, this paper extends the traditional ELES model of consumption structure and constructs a dynamic consumption structure model which conforms to the current domestic situation. This part explains the reason of the change of basic expenditure in the traditional ELES model. Based on the established theoretical model and the dual economic characteristics of China, this paper takes the residents of different income levels in urban and rural areas as the research objects, respectively. The characteristics of consumption structure habits of two categories of residents are studied systematically by using the method of system generalized moment estimation. The conclusions are as follows:. First, in terms of consumption of seven categories of information, among other goods or services, urban and rural residents share significant characteristics of internal habit formation. The consumption of food and clothing is the most intense; transportation and communications, household equipment and services, The influence of internal habits, such as medical care, education, entertainment and cultural services, followed closely, at a moderate level, but compared with urban residents, the intensity of driving effect of rural residents' consumption in the past had obviously declined; while residential consumption, Urban residents' internal habit formation effect is very weak, on the contrary, rural residents are very strong. For other goods or services, urban residents' current consumption is indeed affected by past consumption patterns. Rural residents because of low purchasing power but can not fully enjoy this luxury information, there is no phenomenon of inertia consumption. Second, in terms of interaction with residents with relatively high income, there is no comparison in the statistical significance of food consumption among urban and rural residents with different income levels, while the parameters of external habit formation in health care and transportation and communication are all positive. It shows that the consumption of health care and transportation and communication by the low-income residents in urban and rural areas is more and more inclined to pursue the high-level consumer goods as compared with those of the high-income class residents; in addition to the three categories of goods or services mentioned above, The external demonstration role of urban and rural residents is different. The consumption of clothing, education, entertainment and cultural services by rural residents is affected by the demonstration of high-income class residents, but there is no such demonstration within urban residents. The domestic equipment and service and other goods or services have obvious internal comparison function, but the rural residents do not have the comparison characteristic. Third, this paper selects all the groups outside the research layer, and all the groups above the research level and above the research level as three different combinations of urban residents as demonstration groups, respectively, to explore the internal demonstration of their play. It is found that consumers are always compared with the higher income groups, and all the urban residents who are higher than the income level of the subjects will play a role in demonstrating their consumption behavior. In 4th, by adjusting the parameters of the theoretical model, this paper quantifies the degree of comparison between rural residents and urban residents in the process of urbanization in China. The results showed that, except for food and housing, other consumption data showed different levels of demonstration between urban and rural areas, among which the positive demonstration effect of health care, transportation, communication and education, entertainment and culture was the most prominent. Other goods or services show negative demonstration, and with the increase of rural income, the tendency to compare with the consumption of urban residents is more obvious.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:浙江工商大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】:F126.1;F224

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