本文選題：永泰縣　切入點：生態(tài)足跡模型　出處：《福建農(nóng)林大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：縣級區(qū)域是我國基本的行政單位,是影響我國可持續(xù)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略實施的關(guān)鍵所在,因此,加強對縣級區(qū)域開展可持續(xù)發(fā)展評價研究十分重要。永泰縣作為國家級生態(tài)縣,在經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展的同時,使得其與自然環(huán)境之間的矛盾日趨嚴峻,走可持續(xù)發(fā)展的道路已經(jīng)成為永泰縣的必然選擇。生態(tài)足跡模型作為可持續(xù)發(fā)展的一種評價方法,因其具有定量化的優(yōu)勢,使其在眾多可持續(xù)發(fā)展的研究方法中凸顯出來。本文在研究國內(nèi)外相關(guān)文獻的基礎(chǔ)上,建立生態(tài)足跡模型對永泰縣可持續(xù)發(fā)展進行定量評估,研究結(jié)果可以作為永泰縣制定可持續(xù)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的科學(xué)依據(jù)。首先將永泰縣作為研究區(qū)域,對其自然、社會和經(jīng)濟方面的現(xiàn)狀進行分析。其次,主要通過2006-2015年《永泰縣統(tǒng)計年鑒》以及聯(lián)合國糧農(nóng)組織(FAO)收集生態(tài)足跡計算所需相關(guān)的數(shù)據(jù),對永泰縣2005-2014年生態(tài)足跡進行實證分析,結(jié)果顯示：永泰縣的人均生態(tài)足跡變化趨勢處于不穩(wěn)定的狀態(tài),大體上還是呈上升趨勢,其中,以牧草地人均生態(tài)足跡構(gòu)成最為突出,占比量達到39%；人均生態(tài)承載力呈緩慢減少趨勢,其中,可耕地和林地比重最大,分別達到41%和55%；生態(tài)狀況都處于生態(tài)赤字,而且在總體上有擴大的趨勢,2014年生態(tài)赤字幾乎為2005的3.6倍,其中,牧草地赤字最為嚴重。可以看出,當前永泰縣的生態(tài)已經(jīng)處于不可持續(xù)狀態(tài)。在此基礎(chǔ)上,利用回歸預(yù)測模型對永泰縣2015-2020年發(fā)展趨勢進行預(yù)測,預(yù)測結(jié)果顯示為生態(tài)赤字狀態(tài),且呈下降趨勢,說明永泰縣未來發(fā)展狀況不容樂觀。再者,以生態(tài)足跡計算結(jié)果為基礎(chǔ),利用可持續(xù)發(fā)展相關(guān)指標進行定量計算分析,結(jié)果顯示：永泰縣的資源和能源的利用率在逐步得到提高；生物多樣性和發(fā)展能力在逐漸上升；但是生態(tài)安全狀況已經(jīng)達到較不安全等級(4級),生態(tài)壓力指數(shù)不斷上升。然后,從中國可持續(xù)發(fā)展評價等級表可以得知永泰縣在2005-2014年處于弱不可持續(xù)狀態(tài),且弱不可持續(xù)狀態(tài)在不斷加強,與生態(tài)足跡模型定量研究的結(jié)果相吻合,說明測算結(jié)果具有可信度。最后,綜合得出影響永泰縣可持續(xù)發(fā)展能力的主要因素可以歸納為：生態(tài)需求、生態(tài)供給、土地分配合理性、科學(xué)技術(shù)、人口以及人均收入。針對以上幾個方面,提出符合永泰縣可持續(xù)發(fā)展的政策建議,主要包括：保護原有土地,提高土地利用率；發(fā)展科學(xué)技術(shù),提高能源使用效率；提高人口素質(zhì),實施生態(tài)環(huán)境教育；優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟發(fā)展模式。
[Abstract]:County area is the basic administrative unit of our country and the key to the implementation of sustainable development strategy of our country. Therefore, it is very important to strengthen the research on the evaluation of sustainable development in county-level region. At the same time of economic and social development, the contradiction between it and the natural environment is becoming more and more severe. The sustainable development has become the inevitable choice of Yongtai County. The ecological footprint model is a kind of evaluation method of sustainable development. Because of its quantitative advantages, it is prominent in many sustainable development research methods. Based on the study of relevant literature at home and abroad, this paper establishes an ecological footprint model for quantitative evaluation of sustainable development in Yongtai County. The results of the study can be used as the scientific basis for the formulation of sustainable development strategy in Yongtai County. Firstly, Yongtai County is regarded as the research area to analyze its natural, social and economic situation. Secondly, Mainly through the "Yongtai County Statistical Yearbook" from 2006 to 2015 and FAO / FAO) to collect the relevant data needed to calculate the ecological footprint, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the ecological footprint of Yongtai County from 2005 to 2014. The results show that the per capita ecological footprint of Yongtai County is in an unstable state, and it is on the whole on the rise, among which, the per capita ecological footprint of pasture land is the most prominent. The per capita ecological carrying capacity is decreasing slowly, of which the proportion of arable land and forest land is the largest, reaching 41% and 55 respectively. The ecological situation is in an ecological deficit. In 2014, the ecological deficit was almost 3.6 times that of 2005, among which the pasture land deficit was the most serious. It can be seen that the ecology of Yongtai County is now in an unsustainable state. On this basis, The regression prediction model is used to forecast the development trend of Yongtai County in 2015-2020. The forecast results show that the ecological deficit is in a state of decline, which indicates that the future development of Yongtai County is not optimistic. Furthermore, based on the results of ecological footprint calculation, the future development of Yongtai County is not optimistic. The results show that the utilization rate of resources and energy in Yongtai County is increasing gradually, and the biodiversity and development capacity are increasing gradually. However, the ecological security situation has reached level 4 of the less safe level and the ecological pressure index has been rising. Then, from the evaluation level table of sustainable development in China, we can see that Yongtai County was in a weak unsustainable state from 2005 to 2014. And the weak unsustainable state is strengthening constantly, which coincides with the results of the quantitative study of ecological footprint model, which shows that the calculation results are reliable. The main factors affecting the sustainable development ability of Yongtai County can be summarized as follows: ecological demand, ecological supply, rationality of land distribution, science and technology, population and per capita income. Some policy suggestions are put forward which are in line with the sustainable development of Yongtai County, including: protecting the original land, improving the land utilization ratio, developing science and technology, improving the efficiency of energy use, improving the quality of the population, carrying out the education of ecological environment, optimizing the industrial structure, To change the economic development model.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：福建農(nóng)林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F127

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