本文選題：保險(xiǎn)發(fā)展　切入點(diǎn)：消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)　出處：《吉林大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：改變經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)模式，，擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需是我國(guó)未來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要推動(dòng)力。目前，中國(guó)一方面面臨居民儲(chǔ)蓄存款超高且不斷增加的局勢(shì)；另一方面，老百姓又將錢(qián)袋子捂得很緊，不愿意增加消費(fèi)。對(duì)于這種特殊的現(xiàn)象，一種普遍的觀點(diǎn)認(rèn)為，由于人民收入水平的增加滯后于醫(yī)療、教育、住房和養(yǎng)老等預(yù)期支出水平，居民增加儲(chǔ)蓄多出于預(yù)防性目的。 保險(xiǎn)作為一種經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償制度，不僅能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)規(guī)避風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的目的，還能實(shí)現(xiàn)自身財(cái)富的合理分配。同時(shí)，保險(xiǎn)作為一種互助方式，較儲(chǔ)蓄具有更大的資金放大效應(yīng)。因此，保險(xiǎn)在很大程度上可以替代預(yù)防性儲(chǔ)蓄。大力發(fā)展保險(xiǎn)業(yè)，可以有效減少消費(fèi)者的謹(jǐn)慎性儲(chǔ)蓄，優(yōu)化居民財(cái)富配置，有助于保障居民消費(fèi)的長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定，是拉動(dòng)國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)的有效手段�；诖耍疚牟捎昧死碚撜撌雠c實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)相結(jié)合的研究方法，對(duì)我國(guó)保險(xiǎn)發(fā)展與居民消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)的相關(guān)關(guān)系進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)的分析，并確定了二者之間的作用機(jī)制。 對(duì)文章結(jié)構(gòu)的安排上，首先在引言的部分介紹了本文研究的相關(guān)背景，通過(guò)對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)的評(píng)述，引出論文的研究意義。在理論分析部分，本文首先對(duì)相關(guān)概念進(jìn)行了介紹，并在闡述西方經(jīng)典消費(fèi)理論和保險(xiǎn)職能及性質(zhì)的基礎(chǔ)上，結(jié)合我國(guó)目前的消費(fèi)特點(diǎn)和保險(xiǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀，理論分析了我國(guó)保險(xiǎn)發(fā)展和消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)二者之間的作用路徑。 在實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)部分，本文選取了2006-2013年我國(guó)的保險(xiǎn)深度和社會(huì)消費(fèi)品零售總額的季度數(shù)據(jù)，根據(jù)處理后的數(shù)據(jù)序列建立了向量誤差修正模型，對(duì)我國(guó)保險(xiǎn)發(fā)展與消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。通過(guò)對(duì)檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果的分析，最終得出結(jié)論：保險(xiǎn)發(fā)展對(duì)消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)有明顯的促進(jìn)作用，我國(guó)發(fā)展保險(xiǎn)業(yè)是有效啟動(dòng)內(nèi)需、推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的有效手段，而消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)對(duì)保險(xiǎn)發(fā)展的作用不明顯。最后基于所得出的結(jié)論，在本文結(jié)尾部分對(duì)我國(guó)如何應(yīng)該如何發(fā)展保險(xiǎn)業(yè)提出了相應(yīng)的對(duì)策建議。
[Abstract]:Changing the pattern of economic growth and expanding domestic demand is an important driving force for China's future economic development. At present, on the one hand, China is facing a situation where residents' savings deposits are high and increasing; on the other hand, the common people are keeping their pockets tight. A general view of this particular phenomenon is that the increase in people's income lags behind the expected levels of expenditure such as health care, education, housing and old-age care, and that the increase in household savings is mostly for preventive purposes. As an economic compensation system, insurance can not only achieve the purpose of avoiding risks, but also realize the rational distribution of its own wealth. At the same time, as a mutual aid, insurance has a greater capital amplification effect than savings. To a large extent, insurance can replace precautionary savings. By vigorously developing the insurance industry, we can effectively reduce the prudent savings of consumers, optimize the distribution of residents' wealth, and contribute to ensuring the long-term stability of residents' consumption. It is an effective means to stimulate domestic consumption. Based on this, this paper uses the research method of combining theoretical discussion and empirical test to analyze in detail the relationship between the development of insurance and the growth of resident consumption in China. The mechanism of action between the two is determined. On the structure of the article, first of all, the introduction introduces the background of this study, through the review of the relevant literature at home and abroad, leads to the significance of the research. In the theoretical analysis part, This paper first introduces the relevant concepts, and on the basis of expounding the western classical consumption theory and the function and nature of insurance, combined with the current consumption characteristics and the current situation of insurance development in China. Theoretical analysis of our country's insurance development and consumption growth between the role of the path. In the part of empirical test, this paper selects the quarterly data of insurance depth and total retail sales of consumer goods in China from 2006 to 2013, and establishes a vector error correction model according to the processed data sequence. This paper makes an empirical test on the relationship between the development of insurance and the growth of consumption in China. Through the analysis of the results of the test, it concludes that the development of insurance plays a significant role in promoting the growth of consumption, and that the development of insurance industry in China is an effective way to start domestic demand. The effective means to promote the economy, but the effect of consumption growth on the development of insurance is not obvious. Finally, based on the conclusions drawn, the paper puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions on how to develop the insurance industry in our country at the end of this paper.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F842;F126.1

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