本文選題：貨幣政策　切入點(diǎn)：中介目標(biāo)　出處：《安徽大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：貨幣政策的中介目標(biāo)作為貨幣政策的重要組成部分,是貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制中的重要環(huán)節(jié)。其優(yōu)劣性與否,直接關(guān)系到貨幣政策能否有效地執(zhí)行,宏觀調(diào)控的最終目標(biāo)能否得以實(shí)現(xiàn)。中介目標(biāo)的選取一般是依據(jù)一國的國情和貨幣政策的最終目標(biāo)來確定,我國貨幣政策中介目標(biāo)的實(shí)施先后經(jīng)歷了若干個(gè)階段。自1996年以來,貨幣政策的中介目標(biāo)一直由貨幣供應(yīng)量來充當(dāng),但隨著金融改革的深化和發(fā)展、金融工具和產(chǎn)品的創(chuàng)新以及融資渠道的多元化發(fā)展,我國的經(jīng)濟(jì)金融環(huán)境發(fā)生了巨大的變化,貨幣供應(yīng)量充當(dāng)貨幣政策中介目標(biāo)的適應(yīng)性有所降低。正是在這種背景下,我國創(chuàng)新性地提出了社會(huì)融資規(guī)模這一概念。與貨幣供應(yīng)量等宏觀指標(biāo)相比,社會(huì)融資規(guī)模涵蓋了更多的經(jīng)濟(jì)信息,能夠多層次多角度地反映實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與金融體系的關(guān)系,符合當(dāng)前我國經(jīng)濟(jì)金融發(fā)展的客觀要求。它的出現(xiàn)既有利于貨幣政策的制定和實(shí)施,又有利于宏觀調(diào)控目標(biāo)的實(shí)現(xiàn),因此現(xiàn)階段將社會(huì)融資規(guī)模確立為我國貨幣政策的中介目標(biāo)是十分合理的。 文章選取2002年-2013年社會(huì)融資規(guī)模、GDP以及CPI等宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)的季度數(shù)據(jù)作為樣本數(shù)據(jù),采用理論分析與實(shí)證分析相結(jié)合的分析方法,并結(jié)合EVIEWS6.0等統(tǒng)計(jì)軟件,從必要性和可行性兩個(gè)角度,對(duì)社會(huì)融資規(guī)模作為貨幣政策中介目標(biāo)是合理的這一命題進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)全面地論證,并提出了相關(guān)的建議。 全文共由五個(gè)部分組成。第一部分主要是闡明本文的研究目的和意義,國內(nèi)外學(xué)者相關(guān)的研究成果和現(xiàn)狀以及本文的研究思路、方法和不足之處。第二部分主要是介紹貨幣政策中介目標(biāo)的有關(guān)理論以及西方一些發(fā)達(dá)國家和我國在不同時(shí)期就貨幣政策中介目標(biāo)選取方面的具體實(shí)踐。第三和第四部分作為文章的核心內(nèi)容主要是對(duì)社會(huì)融資規(guī)模作為貨幣政策中介目標(biāo)的合理性進(jìn)行論證,其中第三部分首先簡要介紹了社會(huì)融資規(guī)模的發(fā)展歷史、內(nèi)涵以及統(tǒng)計(jì)原則,然后重點(diǎn)闡述了我國社會(huì)融資結(jié)構(gòu)變化對(duì)貨幣政策造成的影響,并將社會(huì)融資規(guī)模同貨幣供應(yīng)量、利率等指標(biāo)進(jìn)行了對(duì)比分析,得出將社會(huì)融資規(guī)模指標(biāo)確立為我國貨幣政策的中介目標(biāo)是十分必要的這一結(jié)論；第四部分主要是利用協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)以及脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)和方差分解分析等計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)方法,針對(duì)社會(huì)融資規(guī)模的可測性、可控性以及相關(guān)性三個(gè)方面進(jìn)行分析,分析結(jié)果表明社會(huì)融資規(guī)模具有明確的統(tǒng)計(jì)范圍,央行能夠綜合利用各種貨幣政策的操作工具實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)社會(huì)融資規(guī)模的有效控制,另外社會(huì)融資規(guī)模和GDP、CPI等宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)存在穩(wěn)定密切的聯(lián)系,因而將其確立為貨幣政策中介目標(biāo)是具有很強(qiáng)可行性的。第五部分,也就是最后一部分,主要是根據(jù)前文的分析得出結(jié)論并提出相關(guān)的政策建議。
[Abstract]:As an important part of monetary policy, the intermediate target of monetary policy is an important link in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. Whether or not the ultimate goal of macro-control can be achieved. The selection of intermediate target is generally determined by the national conditions of a country and the ultimate goal of monetary policy. The implementation of intermediate target of monetary policy in China has experienced several stages successively. Since 1996, the intermediate target of monetary policy in China has undergone several stages. The intermediate target of monetary policy is always served by money supply. However, with the deepening and development of financial reform, the innovation of financial instruments and products and the diversification of financing channels, the economic and financial environment of our country has undergone tremendous changes. The adaptability of money supply to act as the intermediate target of monetary policy has been reduced. It is under this background that our country has put forward the concept of social financing scale innovatively. The scale of social financing covers more economic information and can reflect the relationship between the development of the real economy and the financial system in a multi-level and multi-angle way. In line with the objective requirements of the current economic and financial development in China, its appearance is not only conducive to the formulation and implementation of monetary policy, but also conducive to the realization of the goal of macro-control. Therefore, it is very reasonable to establish the social financing scale as the intermediate target of monetary policy. This paper selects the quarterly data of social financing scale and CPI as sample data from 2002 to 2013, and adopts the analytical method of combining theoretical analysis with empirical analysis, and combines with statistical software such as EVIEWS6.0, etc. From the point of view of necessity and feasibility, this paper systematically and comprehensively demonstrates the proposition that the scale of social financing is reasonable as the intermediate target of monetary policy, and puts forward some relevant suggestions. The first part is to clarify the purpose and significance of this paper, the research results and current situation of scholars at home and abroad, as well as the research ideas of this paper. The second part mainly introduces the relevant theories of monetary policy intermediary target and the specific practice of monetary policy intermediary target selection in some western developed countries and our country in different periods. The 4th part as the core content of the article is mainly to demonstrate the rationality of the social financing scale as the intermediate target of monetary policy. The third part briefly introduces the development history, connotation and statistical principle of the social financing scale, then expounds the influence of the social financing structure change on the monetary policy, and puts the social financing scale with the money supply. Based on the comparative analysis of interest rate and other indicators, this paper draws the conclusion that it is necessary to establish the social financing scale index as the intermediate target of monetary policy in China. Part 4th mainly uses cointegration test. Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis are used to analyze the measurability, controllability and correlation of social financing scale. The results show that the scale of social financing has a clear statistical scope, the central bank can comprehensively use various monetary policy tools to achieve effective control of the scale of social financing. In addition, there is a stable and close relationship between the scale of social financing and macroeconomic indicators such as GDP CPI, so it is very feasible to establish it as an intermediate target of monetary policy. Part 5th, that is, the last part, It is mainly based on the previous analysis to draw conclusions and put forward relevant policy recommendations.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：安徽大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F822.0;F124

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