本文選題：能源消費(fèi)　切入點(diǎn)：經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展　出處：《鄭州大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：河南省從經(jīng)濟(jì)起步到現(xiàn)在經(jīng)濟(jì)高速增長,一直都依賴于能源的大規(guī)模消費(fèi)。但是,近年來,河南省經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨著新的挑戰(zhàn)。霧霾現(xiàn)象為典型的環(huán)境污染問題成為經(jīng)濟(jì)疲軟的重要原因。河南省“十二五”規(guī)劃也提出,要轉(zhuǎn)變傳統(tǒng)依賴能源的粗放型經(jīng)濟(jì)增長方式,經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展也不再單純追求經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度的增加,更注重經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展結(jié)構(gòu)、方式、質(zhì)量等全面表現(xiàn)。也因此,對(duì)能源消費(fèi)也提出了新的要求,嚴(yán)格限制消費(fèi)規(guī)模的急速擴(kuò)張,要考慮消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)、強(qiáng)度、利用效率等綜合狀況。在這樣的背景下,如何降低能源消費(fèi)規(guī)模和強(qiáng)度,優(yōu)化經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展結(jié)構(gòu),提高經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展質(zhì)量,變成省政府更為關(guān)心的問題,因而,研究能源消費(fèi)綜合狀況與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展關(guān)系綜合表現(xiàn)之間的內(nèi)在關(guān)系,更具有現(xiàn)實(shí)意義,其研究成果為省政府制定能源經(jīng)濟(jì)政策提供寶貴的科學(xué)依據(jù)。 經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與能源消費(fèi)之間具有何種關(guān)系,能源消費(fèi)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展有何種影響是本文的研究重點(diǎn)。在研究兩者關(guān)系之前,本文定義能源消費(fèi)指數(shù)和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展指數(shù)作為能源消費(fèi)和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的綜合衡量指標(biāo)。并利用因子分析法分別從各評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系中確定了能源消費(fèi)指數(shù)和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展指數(shù)及其估計(jì)值,然后基于河南省1990-2012年的樣本從定性和定量角度研究兩者之間的內(nèi)在關(guān)系。定性研究從時(shí)間序列的統(tǒng)計(jì)性角度進(jìn)行分析,定量研究基于計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)理論的向量自回歸模型,脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)和方差分解、協(xié)整理論、向量誤差修正模型、Granger因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)等方法全面地分析了河南省能源消費(fèi)與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的滯后影響、長期關(guān)系、短期波動(dòng)、短期因果關(guān)系等內(nèi)在關(guān)系。 研究結(jié)果表明：①河南省能源消費(fèi)指數(shù)與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展指數(shù)之間互為Granger因果關(guān)系,相互影響；②兩者存在長期均衡協(xié)整關(guān)系；③短期波動(dòng)影響為,能源消費(fèi)指數(shù)變動(dòng)1%,引起經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展指數(shù)變動(dòng)0.04%,但是偏離均衡狀態(tài)的向回調(diào)整力度較��；④能源消費(fèi)指數(shù)相對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展指數(shù)滯后影響更大。
[Abstract]:Henan Province has been dependent on large-scale energy consumption from the beginning of its economic development to its rapid economic growth now. However, in recent years, Henan's economy is facing new challenges. The haze phenomenon is a typical environmental pollution problem that has become an important cause of economic weakness. The 12th Five-Year Plan of Henan Province also proposes to change the traditional energy-dependent extensive economic growth mode. Economic development no longer merely seeks to increase the rate of economic growth, but pays more attention to the overall performance of the structure, mode and quality of economic development. As a result, new requirements have been put forward for energy consumption and the rapid expansion of consumption scale has been strictly restricted. Under such circumstances, how to reduce the scale and intensity of energy consumption, optimize the structure of economic development, improve the quality of economic development, become a matter of more concern to the provincial government, It is of practical significance to study the internal relationship between the comprehensive situation of energy consumption and the comprehensive performance of economic development. The research results provide a valuable scientific basis for the provincial government to formulate energy economic policies. What is the relationship between economic development and energy consumption, and what kind of impact energy consumption has on economic development is the focus of this paper. In this paper, energy consumption index and economic development index are defined as comprehensive measures of energy consumption and economic development, and energy consumption index and economic development index and their estimated values are determined from each evaluation index system by factor analysis method. Then based on the samples from 1990 to 2012 in Henan Province to study the internal relationship between them from the qualitative and quantitative perspectives, the qualitative analysis is carried out from the statistical point of view of time series, and the vector autoregressive model based on econometric theory is quantitatively studied. Impulse response function, variance decomposition, cointegration theory, vector error correction model and Granger causality test are used to analyze the lag effect, long-term relationship and short-term fluctuation of energy consumption and economic development in Henan Province. Short-term causality and other internal relationships. The results show that the relationship between the energy consumption index and the economic development index of Henan Province is Granger causality, and there is a long-term equilibrium cointegration relationship between them. The change of energy consumption index caused the change of economic development index by 0.04, but the intensity of backward adjustment of deviation from equilibrium state was smaller than that of energy consumption index relative to the lag of economic development index.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：鄭州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F426.2;F127

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