基于資金流量矩陣的我國(guó)收入稅對(duì)消費(fèi)的乘數(shù)效應(yīng)分析
本文關(guān)鍵詞: 收入稅 消費(fèi) 資金流量矩陣 乘數(shù)效應(yīng) 出處:《山西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文 論文類型:學(xué)位論文
【摘要】:在經(jīng)過(guò)國(guó)際金融危機(jī)和歐洲債務(wù)危機(jī)的洗禮后,國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)正處于復(fù)蘇階段,但復(fù)蘇速度明顯放緩且新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體持續(xù)動(dòng)蕩,這對(duì)國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境來(lái)說(shuō)無(wú)疑是雪上加霜。國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境也不容樂(lè)觀,經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展進(jìn)入新常態(tài),經(jīng)濟(jì)保持中高速平穩(wěn)較快增長(zhǎng),經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)從主要依靠投資和出口拉動(dòng),慢慢轉(zhuǎn)向由消費(fèi)帶動(dòng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。在這種經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境下,黨和政府“十二五”規(guī)劃和十八大報(bào)告中都指出,要把握住擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需的戰(zhàn)略基點(diǎn),加快建立長(zhǎng)效機(jī)制以擴(kuò)大消費(fèi)需求,釋放居民消費(fèi)潛力,并進(jìn)一步明確指出“把擴(kuò)大居民消費(fèi)需求作為擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需的戰(zhàn)略重點(diǎn)”。在“十三五”中又明確將“消費(fèi)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)貢獻(xiàn)繼續(xù)加大”作為今后五年經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展的目標(biāo)之一。這意味著擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需、促進(jìn)消費(fèi)仍將是我國(guó)未來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)平穩(wěn)增長(zhǎng)的重要因素。本文通過(guò)分析對(duì)收入稅對(duì)消費(fèi)的乘數(shù)效應(yīng),了解了兩者之間的影響關(guān)系,對(duì)進(jìn)一步了解如何通過(guò)對(duì)收入稅的征收來(lái)促進(jìn)我國(guó)各部門消費(fèi)支出、以帶動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)有著現(xiàn)實(shí)意義,本文的分析過(guò)程主要分為四分部分。第一部分:介紹了本文的研究背景與意義,通過(guò)閱讀文獻(xiàn),了解國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者關(guān)于這方面的研究情況,找到本文的突破點(diǎn),在該部分也提供了本文的研究思路、研究?jī)?nèi)容及方法。第二部分:主要介紹本文的理論基礎(chǔ)以及本文分析所用的方法原理,介紹了編制資金流量矩陣是所用的方法,介紹了有關(guān)支出乘數(shù)模型和收入乘數(shù)模型的具體思路。第三部分:該部分以上文中介紹的理論機(jī)制與方法為基礎(chǔ),首先編制了1992-2015年的資金流量矩陣(其中主要以2014、2015年的編制為例),其次是以編制好的資金流量矩陣基礎(chǔ)對(duì)收入稅對(duì)消費(fèi)的乘數(shù)效應(yīng)的進(jìn)行衡量(以2015年乘數(shù)效應(yīng)的衡量為例),最后通過(guò)分析我國(guó)收入稅對(duì)消費(fèi)的乘數(shù)效應(yīng)說(shuō)明收入稅對(duì)消費(fèi)的影響作用。第四部分:通過(guò)上文的綜合分析,該部分對(duì)本文的分析做出總結(jié),并針對(duì)上文的分析提出了有效可行的建議。本文將資金流量矩陣、乘數(shù)模型等方法用于分析解決實(shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題,從收入稅的來(lái)源和使用兩個(gè)角度衡量分析了其對(duì)消費(fèi)的影響作用,通過(guò)分析比較我國(guó)收入稅對(duì)各部門消費(fèi)的支出乘數(shù)效應(yīng)和收入效應(yīng),得出結(jié)論:收入稅對(duì)消費(fèi)的支出乘數(shù)效應(yīng)大于收入乘數(shù)效應(yīng);收入稅對(duì)居民消費(fèi)的乘數(shù)作用明顯與政府消費(fèi)的乘數(shù)作用。通過(guò)上述分析,認(rèn)為我國(guó)著重強(qiáng)調(diào)刺激居民消費(fèi),并且應(yīng)從收入稅的來(lái)源與支出兩種途徑對(duì)居民消費(fèi)水平進(jìn)行引導(dǎo),就收入稅的來(lái)源而言,應(yīng)通過(guò)調(diào)整我國(guó)各收入稅的稅率與收入稅的內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)來(lái)刺激居民消費(fèi);就收入稅的支出而言,政府部門應(yīng)對(duì)收入稅的使用結(jié)構(gòu)和力度進(jìn)行調(diào)整來(lái)改變居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)等。
[Abstract]:After the baptism of the international financial crisis and the European debt crisis, the international economy is at a stage of recovery, but the pace of recovery has slowed markedly and the emerging economies have continued to experience turbulence. This is no doubt exacerbated by the international economic environment. The domestic economic environment is also not optimistic. Economic development has entered the new normal, the economy has maintained a high speed, steady and rapid growth, and economic growth has been driven mainly by investment and exports. Slowly turning to consumption-led economic growth. In this economic environment, both the party and the government pointed out in the 12th Five-Year Plan and the 18 National Congress report that it is necessary to grasp the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand and speed up the establishment of a long-term mechanism to expand consumer demand. To release the consumption potential of the residents, And further clearly pointed out that "to expand the consumer demand of residents as the strategic focus of expanding domestic demand." in the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan", it is clear that "the contribution of consumption to economic growth will continue to increase" as the next five years of economic and social development objectives. This means expanding domestic demand, The promotion of consumption will still be an important factor to achieve steady economic growth in the future. This paper analyzes the multiplier effect of income tax on consumption and understands the relationship between the two. It is of practical significance to further understand how to promote consumer expenditure in various sectors of our country through the collection of income taxes, in order to promote economic growth. The analysis process of this paper is mainly divided into four parts. The first part introduces the research background and significance of this paper, through reading the literature, understand the domestic and foreign scholars about this aspect of the research situation, find out the breakthrough point of this article, In this part, we also provide the research ideas, contents and methods of this paper. The second part mainly introduces the theoretical basis of this paper and the principle of the method used in this analysis, and introduces the method used to compile the capital flow matrix. This paper introduces the specific ideas of the expenditure multiplier model and the income multiplier model. The third part is based on the theoretical mechanism and methods described above. Firstly, the fund flow matrix for the period 1992-2015 is compiled (mainly taking 2014, 2015 as an example; secondly, the multiplier effect of income tax on consumption is measured on the basis of the prepared capital flow matrix). Finally, by analyzing the multiplier effect of income tax on consumption in China, the author explains the effect of income tax on consumption. Part 4th: through the comprehensive analysis above, This part summarizes the analysis of this paper, and puts forward some effective and feasible suggestions for the above analysis. In this paper, the methods of capital flow matrix and multiplier model are used to analyze and solve the actual economic problems. This paper analyzes the effect of income tax on consumption from the perspective of source and use of income tax, and compares the multiplier effect and income effect of income tax on consumption in various sectors. The conclusion is: the multiplier effect of income tax on consumption is greater than that of income multiplier, and the multiplier effect of income tax on resident consumption is obvious with the multiplier effect of government consumption. And we should guide the consumption level of residents from the sources of income tax and expenditure. As far as the source of income tax is concerned, we should stimulate residents' consumption by adjusting the internal structure of tax rate and income tax of each income tax in our country. As far as the expenditure of income tax is concerned, government departments should adjust the use structure and intensity of income tax to change the consumption structure of residents.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:山西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2017
【分類號(hào)】:F812.42;F126.1
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