發(fā)布時間：2018-02-25 01:06

  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 碳排放 產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu) 投入產(chǎn)出法 模糊綜合評價法　出處：《山東大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：氣候問題已經(jīng)成為全球最大的環(huán)境問題。二氧化碳等溫室氣體排放對全球氣候模式產(chǎn)生影響,給人類的生產(chǎn)和生活帶來嚴峻挑戰(zhàn)。2011年中國以31億噸的二氧化碳排放總量躍居全球碳排放首位,作為負責任大國,中國確定了到2020年單位GDP溫室氣體排放比2005年下降40%—45%的行動目標。在明確了我國的碳減排目標后,減排指標必然要在產(chǎn)業(yè)間進行分配。只有分配合理,才能保證減排任務(wù)的完成。由于各產(chǎn)業(yè)之間關(guān)系錯綜復(fù)雜,單純的限制高排放產(chǎn)業(yè),發(fā)展低排放產(chǎn)業(yè)雖然一定程度上可以減少碳排放,但很有可能導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)失衡,最終拖累整個經(jīng)濟。因此產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整時應(yīng)該考慮環(huán)境因素,但又不能完全只考慮環(huán)境因素,應(yīng)該把經(jīng)濟因素與環(huán)境因素結(jié)合起來共同作用于產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整。從產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)角度探討碳排放強度問題,有利于正確判斷和把握影響碳排放量變化的產(chǎn)業(yè)因素,有效制定控制碳排放的產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展政策。 作為東部沿海地區(qū)的一個經(jīng)濟大省,2011年山東省國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值45429.2億元,總量僅此于廣東、江蘇,在全國排名第三,然而由于山東省傳統(tǒng)高耗能行業(yè)占工業(yè)比重較大,經(jīng)濟增長過分依賴能源資源的消耗,山東省也成為我國二氧化碳排放增速最快的省份,約占中國排放總量的9%,面臨著嚴重的節(jié)能減排壓力。同時,山東省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)也面臨的嚴重的挑戰(zhàn),重工業(yè)比重大,能源結(jié)構(gòu)不合理,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的資源轉(zhuǎn)換效率低,都是造成山東省碳排放比廣東和江蘇還高的一個重要原因。本文從產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)濟學(xué)視角出發(fā),以山東省為研究對象,使用模糊綜合評價模型,在傳統(tǒng)的產(chǎn)業(yè)規(guī)模、關(guān)聯(lián)度、技術(shù)指標基礎(chǔ)上加上碳排放這一環(huán)境指標來共同確定產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的方向。首先運用投入產(chǎn)出法來計算山東省排放量,本文的碳排放量包含能源消耗產(chǎn)生的碳排放、工業(yè)生產(chǎn)過程中碳排放以及出口貿(mào)易中隱含碳。其次,以碳排放量作為環(huán)境約束型指標與產(chǎn)業(yè)規(guī)模、關(guān)聯(lián)度、技術(shù)等三個指標共同作用,對山東省29個產(chǎn)業(yè)部門作出排序,并與只有產(chǎn)業(yè)規(guī)模、關(guān)聯(lián)度、技術(shù)三個指標的排序作出對比,可以看出有碳排放指標時煤炭開采和洗選業(yè)、石油加工煉焦及核燃料加工業(yè)、金屬冶煉及壓延加工業(yè)和化學(xué)工業(yè)等重工業(yè)部門排名大幅度下滑,而儀器儀表及文化辦公用機械制造業(yè)和通信設(shè)備、計算機及其他電子設(shè)備制造業(yè)等第三產(chǎn)業(yè)和高科技行業(yè)排名大幅度上升。最后,根據(jù)山東省29部門排名對比情況,對山東省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整提出發(fā)展思路和對策,通過制定和實施產(chǎn)業(yè)政策,能夠有效地支持高新技術(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的成長壯大,有秩序、低成本地實現(xiàn)產(chǎn)能落后和污染型衰退產(chǎn)業(yè)的撤退和調(diào)整,從而加速產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的合理化與高度化,促進經(jīng)濟持續(xù)健康發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Climate has become the world's biggest environmental problem. Greenhouse gas emissions, such as carbon dioxide, have an impact on global climate patterns. In 2011, with 3.1 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions, China ranked first in global carbon emissions, as a responsible big country. China has set an action target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions per unit of GDP by 40 to 45 percent by 2020 compared with 2005. After defining China's carbon emission reduction targets, emission reduction targets must be allocated among industries. Only the allocation is reasonable. In order to ensure the completion of the task of reducing emissions, because of the complex relationship between industries, the development of low-emission industries can reduce carbon emissions to a certain extent, but it is likely to lead to an imbalance in the economic structure, although the development of low-emission industries can reduce carbon emissions to a certain extent. The final drag on the entire economy. Therefore, environmental factors should be taken into account in industrial restructuring, but environmental factors should not be fully taken into account. It is necessary to combine economic factors with environmental factors in the adjustment of industrial structure. It is helpful to correctly judge and grasp the industrial factors that affect the change of carbon emissions from the angle of industrial structure. Effectively formulate industrial development policies to control carbon emissions. In 2011, as a large economic province in the eastern coastal region, Shandong Province had a gross domestic product of four tillion five hundred and forty-two billion nine hundred and twenty million yuan, the total amount of which was only in Guangdong and Jiangsu, ranking third in the whole country. However, because Shandong Province has a large proportion of traditional high-energy-consuming industries in industry, Economic growth is excessively dependent on the consumption of energy resources, and Shandong Province has become the fastest growing province of China's carbon dioxide emissions, accounting for about 9 percent of China's total emissions, facing serious pressure on energy conservation and emission reduction. The industrial structure of Shandong Province also faces serious challenges, such as the heavy industry has a large proportion, the energy structure is unreasonable, and the resource conversion efficiency of the industrial structure is low. This paper, from the perspective of industrial economics, takes Shandong Province as the research object, uses the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, in the traditional industrial scale, the correlation degree, Carbon emission is added to the technical index to determine the direction of industrial structure adjustment. Firstly, the input-output method is used to calculate the emissions of Shandong Province. The carbon emissions in this paper include the carbon emissions from energy consumption. Carbon emissions in industrial production and implied carbon in export trade. Secondly, taking carbon emissions as an environmental constraint index and three indicators of industrial scale, correlation degree and technology, the author makes a ranking of 29 industrial departments in Shandong Province. Compared with the ranking of only three indicators, namely industrial scale, correlation degree and technology, it can be seen that coal mining and cleaning industry, petroleum processing and coking industry and nuclear fuel processing industry have carbon emission targets. Heavy industry sectors, such as metal smelting and calender processing and chemical industries, fell sharply, while instrumentation and cultural office machinery manufacturing and communications equipment, The third industry and high-tech industries, such as computer and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries, have risen by a large margin. Finally, according to the comparative situation of the 29 departments in Shandong Province, the development ideas and countermeasures for the adjustment of the industrial structure of Shandong Province are put forward. By formulating and implementing industrial policies, we can effectively support the growth and expansion of high-tech industries and the tertiary industry, and achieve the withdrawal and adjustment of backward production capacity and pollution-type declining industries in an orderly and low-cost manner. So as to accelerate the rationalization of industrial structure and high-level, promote the sustained and healthy development of the economy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F205;F127;F121.3

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