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人口老齡化、人力資本結(jié)構(gòu)對區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)升級影響的實(shí)證分析

發(fā)布時間:2018-02-20 23:44

  本文關(guān)鍵詞: 人口老齡化 人力資本結(jié)構(gòu) 區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)升級 空間外溢效應(yīng) 出處:《統(tǒng)計(jì)與決策》2017年16期  論文類型:期刊論文


【摘要】:文章以中國各省份2001—2015年面板數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),從全國和區(qū)域?qū)用娣治鋈丝诶淆g化、人力資本結(jié)構(gòu)等因素對區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)升級的影響。從全國層面看,人口老齡化對產(chǎn)業(yè)升級有正向促進(jìn)作用并且正向空間外溢效應(yīng)顯著;人力資本存量也能促進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)升級,人力資本異質(zhì)性對其是負(fù)向影響,當(dāng)人力資本存量一定時,隨著基尼系數(shù)的增大,人力資本水平的增加對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級的影響變小。從區(qū)域?qū)用婵?老齡化對東部地區(qū)的產(chǎn)業(yè)升級是負(fù)向影響,對中西部地區(qū)是正向影響;西部地區(qū)初級人力資本的負(fù)向外溢效應(yīng)比較明顯,中級人力資本在東部地區(qū)會阻礙產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型,在中部地區(qū)影響不顯著,而在西部地區(qū)對產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展有正向促進(jìn)作用,高級人力資本會顯著促進(jìn)各地區(qū)產(chǎn)業(yè)升級。
[Abstract]:Based on panel data of Chinese provinces from 2001 to 2015, this paper analyzes the effects of aging population and human capital structure on regional industrial upgrading at the national and regional levels. Population aging has a positive effect on industrial upgrading and positive spatial spillover effect is significant; Human capital stock can also promote industrial upgrading, human capital heterogeneity has a negative impact on it, when the human capital stock is fixed, With the increase of Gini coefficient, the influence of human capital level on the upgrading of industrial structure becomes smaller. From the regional level, the aging has a negative impact on the industrial upgrading in the eastern region and a positive impact on the central and western regions. The negative spillover effect of the primary human capital in the western region is obvious. The intermediate human capital will hinder the industrial transformation in the eastern region, but the impact in the central region is not significant, but in the western region, it has a positive effect on the industrial development. Senior human capital will significantly promote regional industrial upgrading.
【作者單位】: 武漢大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)與管理學(xué)院;
【分類號】:C924.24;F127;F249.27

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