本文關(guān)鍵詞： 財富效應(yīng) 替代效應(yīng) 房價 非住房消費　出處：《廈門大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著中國房地產(chǎn)市場持續(xù)十五年的繁榮發(fā)展,房地產(chǎn)逐步成為居民財富構(gòu)成中的一個重要組成部分；與此同時,中國居民人均消費也在不斷增加,但人均消費占人均可支配收入的比重卻逐年下降。如何擴大國內(nèi)消費需求、抑制房價迅速上漲成為近幾年中國政府宏觀調(diào)控的工作重點,而房價對于居民消費的影響是正向的財富效應(yīng)還是負向的替代效應(yīng),也成為學(xué)術(shù)界研究的重點。本文認為,中國房地產(chǎn)市場的特殊性可能會導(dǎo)致房價對消費影響的方向及大小與其他國家不同,此外不同地區(qū)、不同收入水平、不同產(chǎn)權(quán)類型、不同年齡、不同教育背景的家庭面對房價的上漲所做出的消費決策也會不同。因此對于房價與消費關(guān)系的研究需要從更微觀的層面著手。 本文首先在生命周期-持續(xù)收入假說的基礎(chǔ)上,借鑒RCK模型中的消費者跨期最優(yōu)模型,同時引入交易稅費、信息搜集成本、首付比例、保有稅費等市場摩擦因素,考察了房價變動對于代表性家庭的非住房消費的影響。然后運用了2002年和2007年的微觀截面數(shù)據(jù),考察了房價與消費的關(guān)系在不同產(chǎn)權(quán)類型、不同收入階層、不同年齡、不同教育水平方面的差異性。最后運用2002-2012年35個城市的面板數(shù)據(jù),考察了房價與消費的關(guān)系在不同地區(qū)、不同時期方面的差異性,補充了微觀截面數(shù)據(jù)關(guān)于時間軸和地域軸的不足。此外在分析過程中還加入了消費習(xí)慣因素,考察了房價變動通過消費的棘輪效應(yīng)對下一期消費造成的影響。 基于上述理論模型和實證結(jié)果,本文認為：房價的上漲一方面對有住房家庭的非住房消費具有促進作用,住房財富的消費彈性系數(shù)為0.08-0.09。收入越高的家庭,財富效應(yīng)越明顯；隨著家庭年齡的上升,財富效應(yīng)呈現(xiàn)倒U型趨勢；受教育年限越長的家庭,財富效應(yīng)明顯；隨著時間的延續(xù),房價的財富效應(yīng)呈現(xiàn)小幅下降趨勢；高等消費區(qū)的財富效應(yīng)最為明顯。另一方面對租房家庭的非住房消費具有負向影響,隨著房價的上漲,這種抑制作用越來越大；高等消費地區(qū)的替代效應(yīng)最為顯著。此外,消費習(xí)慣使得消費在受到外界刺激后波動持續(xù)的時間更長；當(dāng)交易環(huán)節(jié)成本上升(如增加交易稅、交易市場信息不充分)、房貸政策收緊,而保有環(huán)節(jié)成本下降時,房價變動帶來的消費的波動程度也會加劇。
[Abstract]:With the continuous prosperity and development of China's real estate market for 15 years, real estate has gradually become an important part of the composition of residents' wealth. At the same time, the per capita consumption of Chinese residents is also increasing. However, the proportion of per capita consumption to per capita disposable income has declined year by year. How to expand domestic consumption demand and curb the rapid rise of house prices has become the focus of the Chinese government's macroeconomic regulation and control in recent years. The impact of house prices on residents' consumption is a positive wealth effect or a negative substitution effect, which has become the focus of academic research. The particularity of China's real estate market may lead to different directions and sizes of the impact of house prices on consumption, in addition to different regions, different income levels, different types of property rights, and different ages. Families with different educational backgrounds will make different consumer decisions in the face of rising house prices, so the study of the relationship between house prices and consumption needs to be carried out from a more micro level. Based on the hypothesis of lifecycle and continuous income, this paper draws lessons from the intertemporal optimal model of consumers in RCK model, and introduces market friction factors, such as transaction tax, information collection cost, down payment ratio, retention tax and so on. This paper examines the influence of the change of house price on the non-housing consumption of representative households, and then uses the microscopic cross-section data of 2002 and 2007 to investigate the relationship between house price and consumption in different property types, different income classes, different ages, and so on. Finally, using the panel data of 35 cities from 2002 to 2012, we investigate the relationship between housing prices and consumption in different regions and different periods. In addition, the consumption habit factor is added to the analysis process, and the effect of house price change on the next consumption through the ratchet effect of consumption is investigated. Based on the above theoretical model and empirical results, this paper holds that: on the one hand, the rise of house prices can promote the non-housing consumption of families with housing, and the consumption elasticity coefficient of housing wealth is 0.08-0.09. The higher the income, the more obvious the wealth effect; With the increase of family age, the wealth effect shows an inverted U-shaped trend; the longer the family is educated, the more obvious the wealth effect is, and with the extension of time, the wealth effect of house prices shows a small downward trend. The wealth effect in higher consumption areas is the most obvious. On the other hand, it has a negative impact on non-housing consumption of rental households. With the rise of house prices, this inhibition effect is becoming greater and greater; the substitution effect in higher consumption areas is the most significant. In addition, Consumption habits make consumption fluctuate longer after being stimulated by the outside world; when transaction costs rise (such as increased transaction taxes, insufficient information in the trading market, tighter mortgage policies, and lower retention costs), The fluctuation of consumption brought about by changes in house prices will also increase.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廈門大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.23;F126.1

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