本文關(guān)鍵詞： “一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略 OFDI 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素 引力模型　出處：《國(guó)際經(jīng)貿(mào)探索》2017年02期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：文章結(jié)合"一帶一路"海外投資戰(zhàn)略要求及投資實(shí)踐,重點(diǎn)就風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素對(duì)中國(guó)OFDI的潛在影響機(jī)理進(jìn)行分析。擴(kuò)展投資引力理論模型提出研究假設(shè),應(yīng)用泊松偽極大似然估計(jì)(PPML)方法進(jìn)行實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):匯率波動(dòng)、共同語(yǔ)言、政治動(dòng)蕩、反華情緒與中國(guó)主權(quán)摩擦?xí)绊慜FDI,政府治理質(zhì)量提高不能促進(jìn)OFDI,經(jīng)濟(jì)自由度的提高會(huì)顯著促進(jìn)OFDI。除風(fēng)險(xiǎn)影響變量外,經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模及經(jīng)濟(jì)增速也對(duì)OFDI產(chǎn)生顯著影響,勞動(dòng)力成本及地理距離因素不應(yīng)是對(duì)"一帶一路"國(guó)家投資關(guān)注的重點(diǎn)。相應(yīng)提出了以下對(duì)策建議:(1)建立匯率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)測(cè)體系,差異化確定結(jié)算貨幣,合理運(yùn)用金融避險(xiǎn)工具;(2)強(qiáng)化與東道國(guó)政府聯(lián)系,增加經(jīng)濟(jì)自由度高的低經(jīng)濟(jì)水平國(guó)家投資;(3)重視與海外華人、華僑互動(dòng),防范化解地區(qū)沖突摩擦;(4)差異化看待經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模及發(fā)展?jié)摿τ绊?正確審視勞動(dòng)力成本及地理距離因素。
[Abstract]:Combined with "Belt and Road" overseas investment strategy requirements and investment practice, this paper focuses on the analysis of the potential impact mechanism of risk factors on China's OFDI, and puts forward research hypotheses on the expansion of investment gravity theory model. Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimation (PML) is used to test OFDI. It is found that exchange rate fluctuation, common language, political instability, anti-China sentiment and China sovereignty friction will affect OFDI. The improvement of government governance quality can not promote OFDI, the increase of economic freedom will significantly promote OFDI. besides the risk impact variables, the economic scale and economic growth rate will also have a significant impact on OFDI. The factors of labor cost and geographical distance should not be the focus of the national investment of "Belt and Road". Accordingly, the following countermeasures and suggestions are put forward: to establish the exchange rate risk monitoring system, and to differentiate and determine the settlement currency. Rational use of financial hedging tools; (2) strengthening ties with host governments to increase investment in countries with high economic freedom and low economic levels; Third, attach importance to the interaction with overseas Chinese and overseas Chinese, and prevent and resolve regional conflicts and frictions; 4) differentiating the influence of economic scale and development potential, examining the factors of labor cost and geographical distance correctly.
【作者單位】： 山東財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)國(guó)際經(jīng)貿(mào)學(xué)院;
【基金】：山東省自然科學(xué)基金博士項(xiàng)目(2R2016GB01) 山東省哲學(xué)社會(huì)科學(xué)規(guī)劃重大理論與現(xiàn)實(shí)問(wèn)題協(xié)同創(chuàng)新研究專項(xiàng)(15CCXJ03) 山東省高校科研計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(G15WG24) 山東財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)杰出青年培育計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目:“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略下中國(guó)開(kāi)放型經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展路徑研究”
【分類號(hào)】：F125

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前5條

1 郭燁;許陳生;;雙邊高層會(huì)晤與中國(guó)在“一帶一路”沿線國(guó)家的直接投資[J];國(guó)際貿(mào)易問(wèn)題;2016年02期

2 張曉磊;孫利娟;;恐怖活動(dòng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與中國(guó)對(duì)發(fā)展中國(guó)家的直接投資[J];國(guó)際經(jīng)貿(mào)探索;2015年07期

3 項(xiàng)本武;;東道國(guó)特征與中國(guó)對(duì)外直接投資的實(shí)證研究[J];數(shù)量經(jīng)濟(jì)技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2009年07期

4 薛求知;韓冰潔;;東道國(guó)腐敗對(duì)跨國(guó)公司進(jìn)入模式的影響研究[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2008年04期

5 程惠芳,阮翔;用引力模型分析中國(guó)對(duì)外直接投資的區(qū)位選擇[J];世界經(jīng)濟(jì);2004年11期

【共引文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 王玲玲;顧江洪;;中國(guó)企業(yè)境外投資和境內(nèi)轉(zhuǎn)型的困境與政策研究[J];閱江學(xué)刊;2017年01期

2 劉愛(ài)蘭;王智p，

本文編號(hào)：1493714