本文關鍵詞： “一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略 OFDI 風險因素 引力模型　出處：《國際經(jīng)貿(mào)探索》2017年02期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：文章結合"一帶一路"海外投資戰(zhàn)略要求及投資實踐,重點就風險因素對中國OFDI的潛在影響機理進行分析。擴展投資引力理論模型提出研究假設,應用泊松偽極大似然估計(PPML)方法進行實證檢驗。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):匯率波動、共同語言、政治動蕩、反華情緒與中國主權摩擦會影響OFDI,政府治理質量提高不能促進OFDI,經(jīng)濟自由度的提高會顯著促進OFDI。除風險影響變量外,經(jīng)濟規(guī)模及經(jīng)濟增速也對OFDI產(chǎn)生顯著影響,勞動力成本及地理距離因素不應是對"一帶一路"國家投資關注的重點。相應提出了以下對策建議:(1)建立匯率風險監(jiān)測體系,差異化確定結算貨幣,合理運用金融避險工具;(2)強化與東道國政府聯(lián)系,增加經(jīng)濟自由度高的低經(jīng)濟水平國家投資;(3)重視與海外華人、華僑互動,防范化解地區(qū)沖突摩擦;(4)差異化看待經(jīng)濟規(guī)模及發(fā)展?jié)摿τ绊?正確審視勞動力成本及地理距離因素。
[Abstract]:Combined with "Belt and Road" overseas investment strategy requirements and investment practice, this paper focuses on the analysis of the potential impact mechanism of risk factors on China's OFDI, and puts forward research hypotheses on the expansion of investment gravity theory model. Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimation (PML) is used to test OFDI. It is found that exchange rate fluctuation, common language, political instability, anti-China sentiment and China sovereignty friction will affect OFDI. The improvement of government governance quality can not promote OFDI, the increase of economic freedom will significantly promote OFDI. besides the risk impact variables, the economic scale and economic growth rate will also have a significant impact on OFDI. The factors of labor cost and geographical distance should not be the focus of the national investment of "Belt and Road". Accordingly, the following countermeasures and suggestions are put forward: to establish the exchange rate risk monitoring system, and to differentiate and determine the settlement currency. Rational use of financial hedging tools; (2) strengthening ties with host governments to increase investment in countries with high economic freedom and low economic levels; Third, attach importance to the interaction with overseas Chinese and overseas Chinese, and prevent and resolve regional conflicts and frictions; 4) differentiating the influence of economic scale and development potential, examining the factors of labor cost and geographical distance correctly.
【作者單位】： 山東財經(jīng)大學國際經(jīng)貿(mào)學院;
【基金】：山東省自然科學基金博士項目(2R2016GB01) 山東省哲學社會科學規(guī)劃重大理論與現(xiàn)實問題協(xié)同創(chuàng)新研究專項(15CCXJ03) 山東省高�？蒲杏媱濏椖�(G15WG24) 山東財經(jīng)大學杰出青年培育計劃項目:“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略下中國開放型經(jīng)濟轉型發(fā)展路徑研究”
【分類號】：F125

【參考文獻】

相關期刊論文 前5條

1 郭燁;許陳生;;雙邊高層會晤與中國在“一帶一路”沿線國家的直接投資[J];國際貿(mào)易問題;2016年02期

2 張曉磊;孫利娟;;恐怖活動風險與中國對發(fā)展中國家的直接投資[J];國際經(jīng)貿(mào)探索;2015年07期

3 項本武;;東道國特征與中國對外直接投資的實證研究[J];數(shù)量經(jīng)濟技術經(jīng)濟研究;2009年07期

4 薛求知;韓冰潔;;東道國腐敗對跨國公司進入模式的影響研究[J];經(jīng)濟研究;2008年04期

5 程惠芳,阮翔;用引力模型分析中國對外直接投資的區(qū)位選擇[J];世界經(jīng)濟;2004年11期

【共引文獻】

相關期刊論文 前10條

1 王玲玲;顧江洪;;中國企業(yè)境外投資和境內轉型的困境與政策研究[J];閱江學刊;2017年01期

2 劉愛蘭;王智p，

本文編號：1493714