本文關(guān)鍵詞： 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng) 電力消費(fèi) 協(xié)整檢驗(yàn) 灰色預(yù)測(cè) 時(shí)間趨勢(shì)外推　出處：《安徽大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：安徽省正處于經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)的關(guān)鍵時(shí)期,為了實(shí)現(xiàn)電力工業(yè)與經(jīng)濟(jì)的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展,應(yīng)全面了解和掌握安徽省電力消費(fèi)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系。同時(shí),為了保證電力的發(fā)展適應(yīng)社會(huì)發(fā)展的要求,需要把握電力消費(fèi)變化的規(guī)律,合理的對(duì)電力需求進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),這樣不僅可以指導(dǎo)電力規(guī)劃和電力建設(shè),實(shí)現(xiàn)資源的合理規(guī)劃與配置,還能為將來的經(jīng)濟(jì)和電力政策提供參考。本文首先描述了安徽省自1990年以來的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平和全社會(huì)用電量狀況,以及自1978年改革開放以來的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變化趨勢(shì),并從絕對(duì)量指標(biāo)和相對(duì)量指標(biāo)方面分析了安徽省的電力消費(fèi)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系。絕對(duì)量指標(biāo)上,安徽省地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值和安徽省全社會(huì)用電量?jī)烧哂邢嗤淖兓厔?shì);相對(duì)量指標(biāo)上,單位GDP電耗和各產(chǎn)業(yè)占比之間存在相關(guān)性。其次,使用安徽省經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)和電力數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用計(jì)量方法,對(duì)安徽省電力消費(fèi)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了比較全面的研究。主要探究了以下問題:安徽省全社會(huì)用電量和實(shí)際地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值之間的關(guān)系;安徽省全社會(huì)用電量和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)其他主要評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)之間的關(guān)系;使用H-P濾波法分解全社會(huì)用電量和實(shí)際GDP的趨勢(shì)成分和波動(dòng)成分。在計(jì)量模型分析之前,運(yùn)用Pearson相關(guān)系數(shù)分析方法和自相關(guān)性檢驗(yàn)對(duì)安徽省全社會(huì)用電量和地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值之間以及各產(chǎn)業(yè)用電量和各產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行基本統(tǒng)計(jì)分析。由于用電量序列和GDP序列均存在序列自相關(guān)性,為此,選用協(xié)整理論進(jìn)行討論,并建立全社會(huì)用電量和地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值以及分產(chǎn)業(yè)用電量和其對(duì)應(yīng)產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值的誤差修正模型。協(xié)整理論分析表明安徽省電力消費(fèi)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間存在長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定的均衡關(guān)系,在系統(tǒng)分析安徽省總體經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和全社會(huì)用電量的因果關(guān)系研究上,格蘭杰因果分析結(jié)果顯示,安徽地區(qū)存在從全社會(huì)用電量到地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值的單向格蘭杰因果關(guān)系。根據(jù)分產(chǎn)業(yè)用電量與各產(chǎn)業(yè)對(duì)應(yīng)增加值的關(guān)系研究,協(xié)整理論表明第二產(chǎn)業(yè)用電量和第二產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)用電量和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值存在長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定的均衡關(guān)系,格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)分析結(jié)果顯示分別存在從第二產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值到第二產(chǎn)業(yè)用電量、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)用電量到第三產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值的單向格蘭杰因果關(guān)系。最后,進(jìn)行安徽省電力消費(fèi)短期預(yù)測(cè)研究。根據(jù)用電量預(yù)測(cè)分析的時(shí)間性、不確定性、復(fù)雜性的特征,在用電量短期預(yù)測(cè)研究基礎(chǔ)上,用灰色預(yù)測(cè)和時(shí)間趨勢(shì)外推法縱向分析用電量數(shù)據(jù),建立年度模型進(jìn)行分析。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),獲得的樣本數(shù)據(jù)區(qū)間越長(zhǎng),用時(shí)間趨勢(shì)外推法擬合的精度越高,并且,基于各產(chǎn)業(yè)用電量序列特點(diǎn)的差異性,將全社會(huì)用電量分為產(chǎn)業(yè)用電量和居民用電量?jī)纱箢?產(chǎn)業(yè)用電量即—產(chǎn)用電量、二產(chǎn)用電量和三產(chǎn)用電量,分別對(duì)四部分用電量進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)的精度更高。
[Abstract]:Anhui Province is in the critical period of economic transformation and upgrading. In order to realize the coordinated development of electric power industry and economy, we should fully understand and master the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Anhui Province. In order to ensure the development of electricity to meet the needs of social development, it is necessary to grasp the law of electricity consumption change, reasonable forecast of electricity demand, which can not only guide the power planning and power construction. The realization of rational planning and allocation of resources can also provide a reference for future economic and power policies. Firstly, this paper describes the level of economic development and the situation of electricity consumption of the whole society in Anhui Province since 1990. And since 1978 since the reform and opening up since the industrial structure change trend, and from the absolute quantity index and the relative quantity index aspect has analyzed the Anhui Province electricity consumption and the economic growth relations. In the absolute quantity index. The GDP of Anhui Province and the electricity consumption of the whole society in Anhui Province have the same changing trend; Relative volume indicators, the unit GDP power consumption and the proportion of industries there is a correlation. Secondly, the use of Anhui Province economic data and electricity data, the use of measurement methods. The relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Anhui Province has been studied comprehensively. The following problems have been explored: the relationship between the electricity consumption of the whole society and the gross domestic product of Anhui Province; The relationship between electricity consumption and other main evaluation indicators of economic growth in Anhui Province; H-P filter is used to decompose the trend and fluctuation components of the whole society's electricity consumption and actual GDP. Using the Pearson correlation coefficient analysis method and the autocorrelation test, the basic statistical points of the relationship between the total social electricity consumption and the regional gross domestic product of Anhui Province, and between the electricity consumption of each industry and the added value of each industry are carried out. Because of the sequence autocorrelation between electricity consumption sequence and GDP sequence. For this reason, the cointegration theory is chosen to discuss. An error correction model of the whole society's electricity consumption and regional GDP, as well as the electricity consumption by industry and its corresponding industrial added value is established. The cointegration theory analysis shows that there is a long-term stable relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Anhui Province. Equilibrium. Granger causality analysis results show that the causal relationship between the overall economic development of Anhui Province and the electricity consumption of the whole society is analyzed systematically. There is a one-way Granger causality from the whole social electricity consumption to the regional GDP in Anhui Province. The relationship between electricity consumption by industry and the corresponding added value of each industry is studied. The co-finishing theory shows that there is a long and stable equilibrium relationship between the electricity consumption of the second industry and the added value of the second industry, the electricity consumption of the third industry and the added value of the third industry. Granger causality test results show that there is a one-way Granger causality from the added value of the second industry to the electricity consumption of the second industry, the electricity consumption of the third industry to the added value of the third industry. According to the characteristics of time, uncertainty and complexity of electricity consumption prediction analysis, based on the short-term forecasting of electricity consumption research. Using grey prediction and time trend extrapolation method to analyze electricity consumption data longitudinally, establish an annual model for analysis. The study found that the longer the sample data interval, the higher the precision of fitting with time trend extrapolation method. Based on the difference of power consumption sequence, the whole society is divided into industrial electricity consumption and residential electricity consumption, industrial electricity consumption, that is, production electricity consumption, second production electricity consumption and three production electricity consumption. The accuracy of forecasting the four parts of electricity consumption is higher.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：安徽大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F426.61;F127

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